22/05/07
Lead
Low inventory has become the norm in the U.S. auto market, and gone are the days of having 45 days of inventory.
Author 丨 Kang Qin
Responsible editor 丨 Cui Liwen
Edit 丨 Chic
"U.S. dealerships had less than 900,000 light vehicles in Inventory in April." With this description by JD Power, we can get a rough idea of the state of the U.S. auto market in April.
Indeed, the U.S. light vehicle market continued to fall sharply in April due to the general reduction and shutdown of production and production stoppages among major car companies due to shortages of some key components and supply chain constraints, and the same period last year was at a high level in the same period of recent years.
LMC Automotive, JD Power, Cox Automotive and TrueCar estimate that U.S. light vehicle sales were 14.7 million units in April, as measured by seasonally adjusted annualized sales rate SAAR, down from 18.5 million units in April 2021 but slightly higher than the previous March 13.4 million units.
For specific performance, some analysts expect the U.S. auto market to fall by about 20 percent in April, and more detailed forecasts say light vehicle sales fell 17 percent year-on-year to about 1.26 million units. At the same time, LMC Automotive also said that the industry's sales in April increased by 5,000 units month-on-month. From this point of view, the situation of the US auto industry in April does seem to have improved slightly compared to the previous one.
Despite this, as long as the shortage of chips and other auto parts is not effectively alleviated one day, low production and low inventory will continue to become "stumbling blocks" on the road to the recovery of the US car market.
From the performance of car companies that announced sales, April is indeed not a good month, only the relatively small Mazda and Volvo of these 7 companies fell less, and the remaining 5 fell more than double digits.
Toyota, the U.S. salesman for the full year last year and the first quarter of this year, did not continue to maintain this glory, falling 22.7% year-on-year to 184,960 units in April, the ninth consecutive month of decline. Among them, the Toyota brand fell by 23.4%, Lexus also fell by 17.5%, and the sales of many of its best-selling models, such as Toyota Camry, Highlander, Corolla and RAV4, were significantly reduced.
In response, a spokesman for Toyota Motor said that this was mainly due to Toyota's inventory in April below the industry level, with 137,067 cars and light trucks in stock, of which only 13,831 were in stock at dealers and 123,236 in port and in transit.
While Toyota was facing a dilemma, GM, which had been suppressed by it, seemed to have survived the most difficult stage. LMC Automotive said that although the monthly sales figures were not released, the title of the car company in April should belong to General Motors, because it was the only car company that sold more than 200,000 vehicles that month, far exceeding Toyota's 184,960 vehicles.
At the same time, Ford, which has been falling more than Toyota this year, seems to have improved, but in the face of a base of nearly 200,000 vehicles in the same period, the decline has narrowed to 10.7%, and its market share has also increased by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year. Perhaps based on this improvement, Ford motor has earlier said that it expects the group's total sales in the United States to increase this year, and global wholesale sales will also increase by 10% to 15% year-on-year.
However, as far as the current situation is concerned, Ford's goal is still a little too optimistic. Some car companies and analysts revealed that the shortage of parts and components in the automotive industry in the first half of this year will continue to exist until the second half of the year, and will gradually and slowly recover, but the shortage of some parts will not be alleviated until 2023.
And for Ford, April is not all good news, after all, the group's three best-selling pickup trucks fell by more than 20%, F series 22%, Explorer 23%, Ranger is 60%. And Ford's total inventory at the end of April was only 238,000 units, down from 268,000 at the end of March and 265,000 at the end of April last year. Therefore, it is uncertain whether Ford will continue to continue its better trend in may.
Affected by the lack of inventory, Hyundai-Kia also fell again in April, which was its second consecutive month of declines of more than double digits.
As for Honda, April is the ninth consecutive month of decline, and this time the decline reached 40.4%, among its best-selling models, the Honda Accord fell by 20%, the Pilot fell by 43%, and the Civic and CR-V fell by 51% and 56% respectively.
Behind such a tragic decline, on the one hand, it is indeed because of the supply chain caused by honda's lack of production capacity, the inventory of dealers in April is not even less than 20,000 vehicles, thus affecting the sales of the terminal market; on the other hand, riding on the east wind of market recovery, Honda's sales in April last year hit the highest value of 140,023 units in the same period in recent years, becoming an insurmountable mountain this year.
In fact, not only in April, among the car companies that announced single-month sales, Honda has almost been in a leading state this year, so it is also the only car company in the 7 companies that has a cumulative year-on-year decline of more than 20%.
And considering that in early April, Honda Motor claimed that it was forced to reduce its wholesale volume to dealers in May and June due to the large fluctuations in group parts, coupled with the sales of 176,815 units and 153,122 units in May and June last year, respectively, it will continue to be the "leader" in the next two months.
Looking back at the U.S. auto market in the first four months of this year, as Bob Carter, Toyota's head of North American sales, said, the days of having 40 to 45 days of inventory in hand are gone. But even so, to meet consumer demand, automakers must do everything they can to produce more cars.
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