Text/Wang Xinxi
Japanese car companies rarely admit defeat and mistakes easily, but Toyota admits the failure of pure electric vehicles.
At the recent "New System Policy Explanation Meeting", the new president Tsuji Sato personally said: "Regarding the development of pure electric vehicles, Toyota has failed, and it has found many problems in actual implementation. He also said that through the development of the bZ4X model, Toyota needs to rethink its business structure and establish a new research and development system in China to reverse the decline in the Chinese electric vehicle market.
The new president of Toyota hit Akio Toyoda in the face when he came to power, I don't know how Akio Toyoda will feel?
Some insiders believe that this is a marketing tactic by Toyota to promote the next pure electric vehicle, and these two pure electric vehicles are about to be unveiled at the Shanghai Auto Show and officially launched in 2024. But in fact, Toyota woke up, the current Toyota to establish a research and development system in the Chinese market, in fact, to use China's industrial chain to do a good job of trams, counterattack the global market.
Toyota's failure to do not lie entirely with Toyota
Toyota's dismal sales also confirm that Toyota's pure electric is indeed a failure. According to the latest data from the China Passenger Association, since its listing in China in October 2022, the cumulative sales of the bZ4X of the two Toyota-affiliated joint ventures have been 4,231 and 3,353 units, respectively, and the combined sales have only been 7,584 units.
And domestic pure electric sales are growing rapidly, BYD needless to say. Today, in March, in addition to BYD, the monthly sales of GAC Aion (40,016 units), Li Auto (20,823 units), NIO (10,378 units), Nezha Automobile (10,087 units) and other new energy sources will also far exceed the cumulative sales of Toyota's pure electric models in several months.
But objectively, Toyota's failure of pure electric, the responsibility is not entirely on Toyota. Because Japan's automotive industry chain and Japan's resources are not enough to support Toyota's comprehensive transformation of pure electric.
The dilemma of the transformation of fuel vehicle giants is that the interest structure of the inherent industrial chain and the advantages of the original internal combustion engine technology market have formed a huge obstacle, which is the case in Japan and Europe. But Japan has other reasons.
First of all, we know that a necessary condition for electric vehicles is stable electric energy, abundant power resources, the main reason why we engage in electric vehicles, the main reason is that the source of electricity is more diversified, hydropower, wind power, solar energy, nuclear energy, geothermal can be used to generate electricity. Mainland coal is also relatively abundant, and it is very cost-effective to use for power generation.
However, Japan is a country with many earthquake disasters, unstable power supply, and high electricity prices, and the electricity price for individual users in Tokyo is about 1.548 yuan / kWh if it is within 120 degrees; Between 121 degrees and 300 degrees, it is 1.748 yuan / degree; 1.918 yuan/degree above 301 degrees. Since new energy pure electric vehicles now often have more than 80 degrees of electricity, and charging 3 times a month also requires 240 degrees of electricity, so the electricity fee will generally reach 1.918 yuan / kWh stably.
In contrast, Japan's electricity price is nearly four times that of China, if calculated by valley electricity, China only needs 0.28 yuan, and Japan is more than 6 times that of China.
In addition to the high price of electricity, once a natural disaster occurs, the supply of electric energy in Japan cannot be guaranteed, and the development of pure electric is undoubtedly extremely difficult. Akio Toyoda previously calculated that in order to cope with the power peak, Japan needs to add at least 10 nuclear power plants or 20 thermal power plants!
The reason for Japan's high electricity price is the composition of power generation, one-third of Japan is relying on liquefied natural gas power generation, one-third is oil coal, etc., Japan accounts for the vast majority of natural gas, coal, oil is almost 100% need to be imported, natural gas power generation cost is 2-3 times more expensive than coal. In addition, Japan is surrounded by the sea, resulting in resources that cannot be transported through oil pipelines, but only through ocean-going freighters, which has caused high resource transportation costs and high import costs.
High costs, unstable power supply, and lack of resources all make electricity expensive in Japan, which is almost the same as the price of gasoline. Economically, there are almost no economic benefits to using pure electric.
Secondly, the key materials of Japan's lithium batteries, lithium, cobalt, nickel are completely dependent on imports, and charging piles are difficult to popularize. In China, there are full conditions for the development of pure electricity, including large-scale laying of charging infrastructure. In Japan, because the charging pile infrastructure is small, it is not realistic to roll out in a short time, after all, Japan has a small living area, high population density, and does not have so much area to build charging pile parking spaces, even if you want to build charging piles, you will face greater resistance to interests, including cost input and output and national will.
From the previous data, the growth of the number of charging piles in Japan in recent years has stagnated, and even due to the aging or removal of some charging piles, the number of electric vehicle charging piles in Japan has not increased but decreased.
In the case that the development cost of trams is too high and it is impossible to scale up, hybrid is the best choice for comprehensive development trends and realistic situations.
After all, Japan has been on the road of internal combustion engines for too long, and under the intricate interests of interests, it is extremely difficult for vested interests to immediately spit out their interests and turn around and start with the challengers. Therefore, under various unfavorable conditions, Japan has preferred to vigorously develop and promote hybrid rather than develop pure electric in recent years.
Toyota has established a new R&D system in China, aiming to use the Chinese industrial chain to counterattack the world
BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Tesla and other car companies have put part of the manufacturing and research and development of electric vehicles in the Chinese market. From the perspective of Toyota's new plan, Toyota will establish a new R&D system in China, which will give China more support and form an intelligent and electrified R&D system with China as the core. At the same time, it is also possible to realize the research and development of products and technologies in China in the future, and then enter the main global markets.
Obviously, Japan also sees the advantages of developing trams in the Chinese market, including electricity price advantages, resource advantages, tram industry chain advantages, labor cost advantages, market maturity, and infrastructure advantages that Japan does not have.
According to media reports, under the new R&D model, Toyota's R&D center in Changshu, China, and its advanced technology R&D promotion company in Shanghai, as well as the two joint ventures of FAW Toyota and GAC Toyota, will carry out large-scale resource investment and upgrading in research and development in the future. Toyota China also said that China is unique in the world in terms of 5G communication and software applications, and Toyota must rely on China's local wisdom, local engineers, and local research and development system strength.
Obviously, Toyota has bet on the research and development of pure electric vehicles and product technology upgrades in China, so that it can not only help the help of China's new energy vehicle industry chain, but also better understand the needs of Chinese consumers, and by the way, export Toyota pure electric vehicles produced in China overseas.
In fact, Toyota finally made a rational decision after struggling for so many years. Relying on China's industrial chain and technology, Toyota's core purpose is to increase the share of overseas pure electric markets.
At present, Toyota occupies a very large market share in the global market, and Toyota fuel vehicles and hybrids rank first in the world. According to the latest data, Toyota hybrid is increasing at a rate of about 2 million units per year, because of the 40% fuel saving advantage over the same fuel vehicle, the Japanese system has won nearly 80% of the overseas hybrid market.
Now Toyota only has the only shortcoming of pure electricity. And this shortcoming, as mentioned earlier, cannot be solved in Japan. If Toyota puts R&D, manufacturing, production, etc. in Japan, Japan's domestic resources are lacking, various costs are too high, lack of market consumption base, the produced cars will lose price, cost advantages, now Tesla is fighting a price war in the world, Toyota also takes this into account.
In the Chinese market, various costs can be reduced, and Toyota's inherent R&D system cannot adapt, but relying on the technology and resource integration of Chinese joint ventures is expected to enhance the competitiveness of its products. In particular, GAC Toyota's accumulation in the field of new energy is changing from quantity to quality, and GAC AION's sales reached more than 40,000 units in March, and future growth is expected.
Relying on GAC, Toyota still has a chance to catch up. In fact, Toyota is well aware that it competes with Chinese pure electric car companies in the Chinese market, and it has no advantages in pure electric technology and products. However, in overseas markets, Chinese car companies lack layout, and they can sell trams to the global market with the help of Chinese market technology and mature industrial chain. Because in overseas markets, many countries and regions recognize Toyota's products and brands, but they are the shortcomings of domestic new energy, and it is also a market that is difficult to enter in the early stage.
Toyota has been cultivating in the global market for decades, has already formed a very deep global market layout and channel network, Toyota's brand awareness and global market sales channels, as well as overseas markets of various localized manufacturing plants and resource layout, localized business and supply chain expansion, government and enterprise relationship network are Toyota's longboard.
Simply put, Toyota now lacks excellent products in the field of pure electricity, as long as the products are in place, the existing market, channels and resources, there is no problem in selling cars in the global market.
The shortcomings of domestic new energy are that the expansion ability, localization ability and channel deep cultivation of various markets in overseas markets are far less than Toyota. The products and technical capabilities of domestic new energy are improving, but in recent years, the overseas market is still in the layout stage, and there is still a long way to go to establish supply chain networks and manufacturing plants in various countries and regions, and open up sales channels and market channels.
Toyota came to China to establish a research and development system, not in the Chinese market, but in the global market, the core reason for Toyota's success is its globalization and localization capabilities, including learning and innovation, into its own version and technology.
Toyota layout China, domestic new energy should be deployed overseas as soon as possible
This is what domestic new energy is worth learning. Toyota began to focus on pure electricity, in fact, it saw Tesla's potential in the global market, and it was also Toyota's fuel vehicle market share to eat. The current focus of domestic new energy is still competing for the domestic market.
In fact, at present, it is necessary for domestic new energy to layout and expand overseas markets as soon as possible. Because the expansion of overseas markets, not overnight, requires years of deep ploughing, which requires an earlier layout, laying the groundwork for the localization of various countries and regions, market channels are rolled out, shipments and then gradually keep up, if you wait until Toyota and other giants complete the transformation, only to think of entering overseas markets, it may be too late.
Therefore, for Toyota's pure electrification transformation, our vision should not be limited to Toyota to compete with Chinese players in the Chinese market. Toyota admits its failure and puts the R&D system in the Chinese market, and we need to look further, to see that Toyota is a very successful car company that has been doing global, and its goal has always been to target the global market.
As Toyota wakes up, with the help of the Chinese market to promote the pure electric layout, product competitiveness improvement is also predictable, once its tram products strengthened, with the help of the global market's extensive channel market network, can quickly increase sales, eat the overseas market tram dividend.
From this point of view, due to the gradual rise of domestic new energy players in the field of trams, they should enter overseas, sooner rather than later, and timely lay the channels and supply chains of the global market to establish a first-mover advantage. The automobile industry itself is a global industry, the current global layout, BYD has been advancing, and most of the domestic new energy is still limited to the domestic market.
At present, the scale and products of most car companies are still in the development stage, but with the increasingly fierce domestic competition, domestic new energy vehicle companies must actually have a higher strategic vision, good technology and products should not be limited to the domestic market, but to look at the world.
The globalization dividend period is limited, at present, many overseas markets still lack localized pure electric giants, how Chinese car companies to maximize the first-mover advantage of pure electric and early product advantages, eat the early growth dividend of the overseas tram market, is necessary to think now, car companies should also prepare as soon as possible.
Author: Wang Xinxi TMT Senior Reviewer This article is not reprinted without permission