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The "Japanese top three" want to kill a back car gun| "electrolyzed" Japanese car

The "Japanese top three" want to kill a back car gun| "electrolyzed" Japanese car

Author 丨 Xu Jinkai

Responsible editor 丨 Xu Jinkai

Editor 丨Zhu Jinbin

Since the debut of the "Japanese top three" electric vehicle products, the voices questioning the future development of the Japanese system in China have gradually increased, some people think that the excessive sales of fuel vehicles is the burden of the transformation of Japanese electrification, and some people think that the Japanese system is too conservative on the road of electrification, which has led to the gradual formation of a "backward" situation.

Although from the perspective of product strength, there is a gap between Japanese brand electric vehicles and many new energy vehicle companies that are in the limelight, but independent brands are indispensable, how the future market pattern will develop, and whether the Japanese market space will be squeezed are unknown. After all, Japan's strong brand influence, huge base disk users and mature production and sales system will strive for more initiative in the development of electrification.

The "Japanese top three" want to kill a back car gun| "electrolyzed" Japanese car

From the perspective of the development of the industry, it should not only stick to the current "small profits", but should be considered from a longer-term perspective, how long can the situation of independent brands temporarily leading in the era of electrification be maintained? Can the battle for battery technology routes gain an advantage? Will electric vehicles be subverted by hydrogen energy vehicles?

One uncertainty after another is like the sword of Damos, which will always issue a fatal test for independent brands, not to mention that in the research and development of electric vehicles, Japanese brands have full right to speak.

Layout early start late What is the Japanese system worried about?

Anyone familiar with the history of automobile development knows that electric vehicles are not new, in 1834, the American Thomas J. Dalport built the world's first electric tricycle, which is bigger than Karl. Benz's car on the road in 1885 was a full 51 years ahead. In the long history of the development of electric vehicles, Japanese brands have also left a strong mark.

As early as 1947, Nissan released the Tama pure electric vehicle, equipped with a replaceable lead-acid battery, the top speed of 35.2 kilometers per hour, the mileage of 96.3 kilometers, although it is not worth mentioning now, but it was not a small innovation at the time, especially in the macro context of the Japanese oil crisis, the advent of Tama is of great subversive significance, favored by taxi companies at that time. Since then, with the stabilization of oil supply, Tama has gradually stopped production, but Nissan's research on electric vehicles has also begun.

The "Japanese top three" want to kill a back car gun| "electrolyzed" Japanese car

Toyota launched a series of small pure electric vehicles in the 1980s, and Honda produced 340 EV Plus electric vehicles in 1997 and introduced them to the market in the form of leasing. Although subject to key factors such as mileage and battery cost, the original electric vehicle eventually withdrew from the market as a loser, but this laid the foundation for the hybrid layout of the two fields.

The development mode of power exchange and leasing is one of the means to promote the development of China's new energy industry in recent years, and these Japanese brands have long had relevant experience, but under the premise that the Japanese government has not vigorously promoted the new energy industry, it is difficult for a single enterprise to complete the promotion of electric vehicles, and relative to the Chinese market, the Japanese market is too small, it is difficult to produce scale effects, and reducing battery costs has become a problem to be solved.

Coupled with the state of Japan's mountainous, hilly and private ownership of land, it will also create no small problem for the establishment of the energy replenishment system, so many "hardware level" has not reached the standard, which greatly limits the development of Japanese electrification. In addition to many objective factors that are difficult to change, the Japanese system also retains its own views on whether electrification can become the mainstream of the future car market, which is most obvious in Toyota.

Toyota, which exhibited 16 pure electric vehicles at the end of last year, seems to be explaining to the world that "Toyota does not lack electric vehicles at all", but its conservative sales targets have a sense of "thunder and rain". According to Toyota's plan, by 2030 Toyota's electric vehicle sales will be 3.5 million, accounting for about one-third of total sales, which is in stark contrast to Volkswagen's goal of 50% of electric vehicle sales in 2030, and Toyota Akio is based on "we live in an era of diversification and unpredictable future." No one product is available for everyone. The answer once again shows that it is not optimistic about the future of electric vehicles.

The "Japanese top three" want to kill a back car gun| "electrolyzed" Japanese car

Prior to this, Akio Toyoda shelled electric vehicles more than once, unemployment, pollution, etc. have also become the main arguments against electric vehicles, which may be the root cause of the Japanese brand's "first electric shock" after the collective choice to "leapfrog" the pure electric stage and make up for the shortcomings in the way of hybrid and even hydrogen energy.

Toyota focused, Honda "split", And Nissan staggered forward

Regardless of success or not, the stubborn Japanese finally chose to compromise, with the bz4x and e:N series as the starting point, Toyota, Honda officially cut into the pure electric vehicle market, and Nissan has long been testing the water in the way of Xuanyi pure electricity, Ariya is also slowly coming to the Chinese market, not only that, Nissan will stop developing new internal combustion engines, intending to focus most of its future energy on the new energy market.

Although the Japanese top three are almost at the same time to increase the size of pure electric vehicles, but each other's play style is different, in the Chinese market, Toyota has enhanced its own right to speak, to Toyota China-led, Yifeng, Guangfeng assisted in the way to promote the electrification process, so that the fuel vehicle era "double yolk egg" model planning has also entered history.

Different from toyota's way of highlighting its own strength, Honda continues the playing style of the fuel vehicle era, e:NS1 and e:NP1 have also become an important beginning for Dongben and Hiromoto to move towards electrification, from this state, it is not difficult to see that in the era of pure electric vehicles, Honda will still form a "double yolk egg" product pattern, and The respective play of East and Hirommoto is still the main theme of Honda's development in China.

The "Japanese top three" want to kill a back car gun| "electrolyzed" Japanese car

For Nissan, which has only one joint venture company in China, there is no such tangled state, and the product has become the main key point for its breakthrough, although Nissan Leaf has long had successful operating experience in overseas markets, but the temptation of Xuanyi Pure Electricity in the Chinese market has long been drowned in the gushing new energy market, Ariya is the key to its re-refreshing its market position.

Frankly speaking, in terms of product strength alone, whether it is bz4x or e:N series and the upcoming Ariya, it cannot compete head-on with independent brands at the same price, but in the Chinese market, as long as the model is introduced to the market, consumers will pay for it, and it is more like the proud work of the "Japanese Top Three".

However, with the rise of independent brands, the "joint venture plot" of consumers is weakening, coupled with the early start and many products, independent brands are expected to achieve a more positive development trend in the era of electric vehicles.

But this is not a reason for complacency, in the long run, the battery technology route dispute is still continuing, the current mainstream ternary lithium, lithium iron phosphate batteries and the gradual rise of all-solid-state batteries who will become the mainstream of the market is still unknown, and in the field of hydrogen energy, the Japanese system has long been at the forefront of the market.

Whether the all-solid-state battery can complete a technical breakthrough is the key to whether it can seize the current lithium battery rampant situation, and at such a relatively passive moment, the "national character" of the Japanese group heating has once again been displayed.

The "Japanese top three" want to kill a back car gun| "electrolyzed" Japanese car

As early as 2018, Japan's new energy industry technology comprehensive development agency gathered many forces to carry out research and development of all-solid-state batteries, including 23 automobile, battery and material companies such as Toyota, Honda, Nissan, panasonic, and 15 academic institutions such as Kyoto University and Japan Riken Research Institute. Recently, Nissan also announced the pilot production equipment of all-solid-state batteries, and said that it will start formal production in 2028, which means that Japan may take the lead in the field of all-solid-state batteries, and whether independent brands can calmly cope with it is a problem worth thinking about.

In general, in the field of electric vehicles, the Japanese system is not useless, but its "contempt for pure electric vehicles" initiative gives independent brands an opportunity, and independent brands should seize such opportunities, expand their own advantages at the same time, with a more active and more diversified attitude to win the initiative of future development, only in this way can the "singing down" Japanese singing, can continue to fly.

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