Yesterday, Russia launched a blitzkrieg against Ukraine, which is said to be the last major war in 30 years. This sparked a global upsurge in safe-haven assets, causing already rising international oil prices to rise by more than 5 percent again, reaching a peak of $100, a seven-year high.
Not only oil prices are rising, but war also means more uncertainty for us, such as our stock market fell sharply yesterday, and although it has recovered today, it has not completely recovered the lost ground, and the global stock market is green. Not only that, but will the hard-won world peace, and everything that is built on peace, including our thriving car market, change as a result? Let's take a look.
Oil prices or will enter the "four consecutive rises"
Today is the sixth working day of the new round of oil price adjustments, and there are still 6 days to go before the next round of oil price adjustments. Due to the great changes in the international situation in the past few days, which has triggered a sharp rise in international oil prices, it is estimated that in the next few days, the conflict will not end soon, so it is certain that the refined oil products will continue to rise, and it is uncertain whether it is only a big rise or a small rise. In other words, the mainland's refined oil products will achieve "four consecutive increases".
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which seems far away from us, has begun to affect our lives.
Mr. Zhang's car used to add a tank of oil will not exceed 500 yuan, but on Tuesday, he added a box of No. 95 oil has been 520 yuan, which is also the most expensive time for a tank of oil in the five or six years since he bought a car.
At present, most of the domestic No. 95 gasoline is around 8 yuan, but the price in Hainan and Tibet exceeds 9 yuan. Of course, the price of No. 98 gasoline in Zhejiang, Fujian, Gansu, Hebei, Henan, Hunan, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Anhui, Qinghai, Shandong, Shaanxi, Shanxi and other provinces has not exceeded 9 yuan, while the price of No. 98 gasoline in Hainan has exceeded the 10 yuan mark. The price of No. 92 gasoline in each province is between 7 yuan and 8 yuan. If the next round of oil prices rises again, then for Mr. Zhang, the price of a tank of oil will definitely have to pay more.
Relevant people said that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has occurred, the global oil inventory has begun to tighten, and oil prices have risen, as for the extent to which oil prices will rise later, it remains to be further observed.
Rising oil prices are good for new energy vehicles.
In January, the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars has reached 19%, and the rise in oil prices will boost more consumers to buy more environmentally friendly and fuel-efficient new energy vehicles, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to further increase.
Chip shortages may be more severe
Here the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is still ongoing, and over there, many Western countries led by the United States have announced that they will impose sanctions on Russia. Worryingly, the tension between Russia and Ukraine will not only raise oil prices, but may also affect the global chip supply chain.
You know, last year, the global car was greatly affected by the chip shortage, if the conflict intensified this time, it will undoubtedly make the chip shortage in the automotive industry worse.
In addition to oil and gas reserves, Russia is also one of the producers of nickel ore and palladium, such as its palladium production accounts for about 40% of the world's total. Among them, nickel is the raw material for electric vehicle batteries, while palladium is mostly used in the post-chip packaging link. Ukraine is a large supplier of raw gas for semiconductor processes, including neon, argon, krypton, krypton, etc., of which neon gas is supplied by Ukraine to nearly 70% of the world's production. Neon gas is mainly used in the DUV lithography process.
It can be seen that after this conflict, when the automakers exhaust the chip inventory, it is estimated that the production cuts caused by the new round of chip shortage will begin again. At the same time, the price of related chips will also rise.
I hope that Russia and Ukraine can shake hands as soon as possible and not let the gradually normal all-chip supply chain once again be unbalanced and hit the automobile manufacturing industry.
Chinese brand exports and the top 3 European car manufacturers may be affected
In the wake of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States and its allies announced that they would impose sanctions on Russia, which could affect several European automakers, including Renault, Volkswagen and Stellantis. It is understood that these 3 car companies currently occupy an important position in the Russian market.
Five of Russia's top 10 models are Renault products. Of the 25 cars with the highest sales in Russia, 12 are from the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance, 6 from hyundai motor groups and 4 from Volkswagen group. Of course, luxury brands such as BMW and Mercedes-Benz also have a greater impact. Last year, the best-selling high-end brands in Russia were BMW, Followed by Mercedes-Benz, Lexus in third place and Audi in fourth place.
In addition, the export of some Chinese brands to Ukraine will also be affected.
At present, Ukraine has a lot of imported cars from China, of which Chery is the most popular Chinese car brand in the Ukrainian market. Since the beginning of 2020, 512 cars of the brand have passed the first registration in Ukraine. This is followed by Haval. There are also FAW, Jacque Automobile, Volvo and so on. Great Wall Motors has realized the localization production of Haval F7, F7x, H9, JOLION and other models at the Tula plant in Russia, and has set up a marketing center in Russia, and has also laid out a sales market in Ukraine. Therefore, Great Wall Motors' production and sales in Russia will not be affected, but the Export Business of Ukraine may be affected in the short term.
However, for Chinese brands, the Ukrainian market is not very large, and at present, it is still a very small number. Therefore, on the whole, the impact on China's automobile exports will not be too large.