In addition to the war between Russia and Ukraine, Western countries led by the United States have begun to impose multiple rounds of sanctions on Russia. The ban on crude oil imports from Russia by the United Kingdom and the United States has led to a rapid surge in global crude oil prices. Brent crude oil has broken through $130 on March 9, and the domestic no. 92 and no. 95 gasoline prices will enter the 9 yuan era.
Will the rise in crude oil prices boost the sales of new energy logistics vehicles in the mainland? Judging from the anger of netizens by WM CEO Shen Hui playing oil and electricity difference, short-term benefits cannot bring "lying win", and the development of new energy vehicles still needs to practice internal strength, reduce costs and increase efficiency to promote growth.
The rise in oil prices is only a short-term positive
As we all know, under the two-wheel drive of policy and market, the mainland new energy automobile industry has made breakthrough progress. The annual sales of new energy vehicles in mainland China have increased from 507,000 units in 2016 to 1.367 million units in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 28%. In 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in mainland China exceeded 3.5 million units, 3.545 million and 3.521 million units respectively, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles in mainland China have ranked first in the world for seven consecutive years.
However, there are still some problems in the development of new energy vehicles in the mainland. On the one hand, the growth of new energy vehicle production and sales is mainly driven by policies, on the other hand, the proportion of new energy vehicles in the mainland is still very low. According to the data, the number of new energy vehicles in the mainland will reach 7.84 million in 2021, but it accounts for only 2.6% of the total number of vehicles.
The reason for this situation, although it has a certain relationship with oil prices, the core reason is that the mileage anxiety caused by the high residual value of new energy vehicles and the relative inconvenience of energy replenishment has not been fundamentally solved. Potential users remain concerned about the distribution of charging stations, range, maintenance services, accessories, and the maturity of technology and equipment.
Tram resources on the oil price may usher in the 9 yuan era, on WeChat interviewed a Shenzhen new energy vehicle leasing company freight driver Zhang Shifu. He said the floating oil prices did not "feel like they had made money" for those of them who drove new energy logistics vehicles. But he acknowledged that it would increase the operating costs of freight drivers who drive fuel trucks, but the increase was modest.
However, oil prices are floating, oil prices are only short-term positive, and freight drivers are more concerned about the rise and fall of freight orders and unit prices. If the order volume and unit price rise, the fluctuation of oil prices is completely negligible.
Weima played the inspiration of the oil and electricity terrier overturning
In the face of oil prices may enter the 9 yuan era, Weima CEO Shen Hui said on Weibo that No. 95 gasoline will break through 9 yuan / liter, according to the calculation of 50 liters of refueling, it will cost more than 450 yuan. According to the calculation of 100,000 kilometers in 5 years, the electricity consumption of pure electric vehicles can save more than 80,000 yuan compared with the fuel cost of fuel vehicles, which is almost equal to four LV or Hermès entry-level bags.
Netizens shouted: "For private cars, it is really not a matter of rising this bit of money, mainly because of the owners who are suffering from running transportation." "Unless the sale of fuel vehicles is banned, no trams are considered" "Buy trams and don't buy WM"...
Returning to the rise in crude oil prices, Gao Xinwei, a professor at China University of Petroleum (East China), said that rising oil prices will directly affect CPI and thus drive up transportation costs. At this time, the advantages of new energy logistics vehicles in the field of urban distribution will be highlighted.
Tram resources calculate an account of oil and electricity difference: traditional trucks plus a box of oil No. 92 oil (calculated according to 50 liters, 8-9 yuan / liter) will cost about 400-450 yuan; and 41.86 degrees of electric new energy micro-surfaces in the peak and valley period full charge generally up to 60 yuan. After running a tank of oil, you only need to charge up to three times, and the electricity bill is 180 yuan.
Therefore, it is foreseeable that in the field of urban distribution, the rise in oil prices will have two positive effects only from the perspective of transportation costs. First, more and more fuel truck drivers may switch to new energy logistics vehicles; second, third-party transportation capacity enterprises, logistics distribution enterprises, express delivery companies, etc. will accelerate the replacement of new energy logistics vehicles.
However, the CEO of WM was also intimidated to give the new energy logistics vehicle industry several enlightenments: First, after more than ten years of development of new energy vehicles, the mass base is considerable. Especially in today's post-80s and post-90s generations that have gradually become the mainstream group of freight drivers, more and more people understand cars, and the routine of doing oil and electricity difference articles to engage in marketing basically fails. Second, enterprises can solve the problems faced by the industry such as rising costs, safeguarding the rights and interests of freight drivers, and charging and replacing infrastructure construction, so as to truly promote the new energy logistics vehicle industry to enter the market-driven high-quality development stage.
The development of new energy logistics vehicles is an urgent task
However, judging from the price adjustment mechanism of refined oil products on the mainland, the price of refined oil products can only rise to 130 US dollars at most. If the price of refined oil products continues to remain high, it will also hinder the development of the market economy, and the 9 yuan era will not last.
Compared with the short-term benefits brought about by the rise in oil prices, the challenges faced by new energy logistics vehicles are long-lasting.
In fact, with the development of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the increase of sanctions on Russia by Western countries, in addition to the rise in crude oil prices, the shortage of new energy vehicle chips has become more and more serious.
It is understood that in addition to Russia's oil, natural gas and other reserves ranked among the top in the world, the output of nickel ore and palladium is also very large, of which palladium is mostly used in the chip back-end packaging link. Ukraine, on the other hand, is a major supplier of semiconductor raw gases, with elements such as neon, argon, krypton, and xenon, and neon gas is mainly used in the DUV lithography process (chip manufacturing process). Affected by the situation, the chip may be further short.
The tightening of chips, the decline of subsidies and the rise in the price of battery raw materials will further increase the purchase cost of new energy logistics vehicles. Compared with new energy passenger vehicles, the characteristics of new energy logistics vehicles as a means of transport make users more sensitive to price.
In response to the above problems, Xin Guobin, vice minister of industry and information technology, said at a press conference held by the State Council New Office that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will pay close attention to studying and clarifying support policies such as the continuation of preferential tax treatment for new energy vehicles, launch a pilot project for the full electrification of vehicles in the public sector, and accelerate the construction of charging and replacing infrastructure.
It is believed that in the context of short-term benefits and long-term challenges, the new energy logistics vehicle industry has become more mature and resilient in the process of overcoming challenges. If this is the case, the sales of new energy logistics vehicles will surely usher in a new high in 2022.