In the first quarter of 2022, a total of 32,082 new energy logistics vehicles were sold, of which 6,552 units were sold in the southwest region (Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Guizang), accounting for 20.4% of the total sales volume in the first quarter, an increase of 122% over 2021. Xinyuan New Energy and Changan Kaicheng sold more than 1,000 sales, winning the first and second place, and Ruichi New Energy won the third place.
Located in the "Belt and Road", the Yangtze River Economic Belt and other important nodes of national grand strategy, in recent years, the economic development of the southwest region has been all the way up. In 2021, the total GDP of all provinces and municipalities in the southwest region will achieve year-on-year growth, and the regional driving role of Chengdu and Chongqing Twin Cities will be significantly improved. Coupled with the introduction of a series of new energy vehicle development plans and support policies in the southwest provinces and municipalities, the industry predicts that the sales of new energy logistics vehicles in the southwest region in 2022 are expected to skip the 30,000 mark and go straight to 40,000.
So, what is the development status of new energy logistics vehicles in the southwest region? What is the potential for future growth?
Strong industrial base: the average growth rate of 160.8% in 2021
In 2021, the cumulative sales of new energy logistics vehicles in the southwest region will be 25,537 units, which will become a three-legged trend with the south and east China markets. Compared with 2020, the sales volume in the southwest region increased significantly in 2021, and the market share increased from 16.4% in 2020 to 19.5% in 2021.
Among them, Sichuan Province is the main force in the sales of new energy logistics vehicles in the southwest region. In 2021, Sichuan alone won nearly 50% of the market share in the southwest region, with sales of 12658 vehicles; Chongqing won 28% of the market share, followed by 7248 vehicles; followed by Yunnan, with a market share of nearly 20%, with a total sales of 4957 vehicles.
By comparing the data of 2021 and 2020, it can be seen that the southwest region (three provinces, one city and one district) has achieved year-on-year growth in 2021. Among them, Chongqing increased the most, more than 288%; Sichuan increased by 120% year-on-year in 2020, Yunnan increased by 195% year-on-year, Guizhou increased by 175% year-on-year, and Tibet increased by 26%.
On average, the sales volume of new energy logistics vehicles in the three provinces, one city and one district in the southwest region in 2021 will increase by more than 160.8% year-on-year, leading the country.
In addition to maintaining a leading growth rate in the country, the new energy industry in the southwest region has a strong strength, sitting on Ruichi New Energy, Xinyuan New Energy, Nanjun Group, FAW Hongta, Aerospace Shenzhou and other enterprises.
From the perspective of industrial clusters, Sichuan has a perfect industrial chain of new energy vehicles. As one of the provinces with the richest spodumene ore in mainland China, Sichuan has resource reserves of 760,000 tons, mainly distributed in the two mines of Methyl Card in Ganzi Prefecture and Kelyin in Aba Prefecture. In the context of the shortage of lithium resources, Sichuan has become the "permanent place" of upstream raw material enterprises and power battery enterprises of Xinneng Automobile. Among them, the Ningde era has successively laid out in Chengdu, Yibin and Meishan in Sichuan; materials and structural parts enterprises such as Tianci Materials, Shanshan Technology, and Kodali have also laid out the surrounding cities in Sichuan.
In recent years, other provinces and cities, such as Chongqing, have actively used their position as municipalities directly under the central government to attract domestic and foreign industrial transfers, with strong industrial radiation and large transportation demand. Yunnan has nearly 93% of the country's clean energy, of which nickel, cobalt and other rich mineral resources can provide sufficient raw materials for the production of new energy batteries.
The demand characteristics are distinct: mainly micro-surfaces, and the demand for trucks is large
From the data point of view, the southwest region has the highest micro-surface sales, and the demand for trucks is strong.
In 2021, the new energy logistics vehicles sold in the southwest region covered the entire product line, and the highest selling model was micro-surface, with a market share of up to 46% and sales of 11715 vehicles; followed by micro-trucks, with sales of 6913 vehicles, accounting for 27%; followed by light trucks, with sales of 4962 vehicles, accounting for 19%; and Sea Lions with sales of 1403 vehicles, accounting for 5%.
Among them, the proportion of trucks is high in the southwest region. In the first quarter of 2022, truck sales in the southwest region accounted for 52%; in 2021, trucks accounted for 46%; in 2020, it accounted for 41%. Sichuan is the province with the highest sales volume of new energy trucks, followed by Chongqing.
In the 2021 new energy logistics vehicle sales TOP10 models, there are 4 micro-trucks and 1 light truck, which are the same as the micro-surface seats. Among them, Xinyuan T50EV won the championship with sales of 2190 vehicles, followed by Ruichi EC35II with sales of 2040 units.
Geely's long-range E5L, Xinyuan X30L EV, Changan Star 9EV, and Ruichi EC31 sales ranged from 1000 to 1200 vehicles, with sales of 1199, 1161, 1154 and 1091 respectively, accounting for 18% of the total.
Sales between 800 and 900 vehicles are: Changan Ruixing EM60, Wuling Electric Truck, Geely Remote E200, Karry Youjin EV, sales are 983, 928, 880 and 808, accounting for 14% of the total.
In general, in the southwest region, affected by the geographical environment, industrial composition and other factors, the truck is the second most popular model after the micro-surface.
The clear demand characteristics mean that the market is relatively more mature, and it is relatively easier to promote the application of new energy logistics vehicles. Taking Chengdu as an example, Peng Yiqiang, a professor at the School of Automobile and Transportation of Xihua University, once said that Chengdu has a large-scale application market, and the market side ranks high in the country.
The policy with clear goals is strong, and sales in 2022 may exceed 40,000 vehicles
Sichuan issued the "Electric Sichuan" Action Plan (2022-2025)", which plans for the construction of charging and replacing infrastructure, the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in various fields, the power battery industry, and the upgrading of the new energy automobile industry. Among them, Chengdu clarified in the "Chengdu 2022 Air Pollution Prevention and Control Work Action Plan" that: in 2022, the promotion of new energy vehicles in urban logistics and distribution fields will be no less than 20,000; the number of new charging (replacement) power stations will not be less than 350, and the charging pile will not be less than 20,000; the green travel rate in the central urban area (11+2) will not be less than 67%, and the share rate of public transportation in motorized travel will not be less than 48%; at least 80,000 old vehicles with national III and below emission standards will be eliminated.
Chongqing recently issued the "Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for New Energy Vehicles and Charging and Swapping Infrastructure in Chongqing in 2022" and the "Chongqing New Energy Vehicle Replacement Model Application Pilot Work Plan (Draft for Comments)" to support the construction of charging and replacing electricity, support pilots in ports, slag, mines and other fields, and guide and encourage the use of new postal express and urban logistics distribution vehicles in central urban areas and districts and counties to give priority to the use of new energy vehicles.
Yunnan has made plans for the upstream and downstream of the charging pile and power battery industry chain.
In the "Three-year Action Plan for the Construction of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure in Guizhou Province (2021-2023)", Guizhou will build 5,000 electric vehicle charging piles in the province by 2022; by 2023, the province will have built a total of 380,000 electric vehicle charging piles, with a charging capacity of 1.6 million kilowatts.
In fact, thanks to the support of policies in recent years, the promotion and application of new energy logistics vehicles in prefecture-level cities other than Chengdu-Chongqing-Kunming in the southwest region have also achieved good results, containing great market potential.
For example, mianyang (957 vehicles, 3.7%), Guiyang (496 vehicles, 1.94%), Dazhou (272 vehicles), Qujing City (182 vehicles), Deyang City (178 vehicles), Dali, (178 vehicles), Aba Prefecture (171 vehicles), Lijiang City (154 vehicles), Nanchong City (147 vehicles) and other urban markets are also rapidly rising. Judging from the city's sales volume in the first quarter of this year, Aba State is expected to become a dark horse.
Combined with the conservative estimate of the industry's conservative estimate of 200,000 new energy logistics vehicles in 2022, the sales volume of the national market this year will increase by about 50%. According to this forecasted increase, the southwest region will sell nearly 40,000 vehicles in 2022.
brief summary:
Judging from the sales growth of new energy logistics vehicles in the southwest region in 2021 and the first quarter of this year and the favorable policies that have come out so far, the sales volume in the southwest region will still maintain rapid growth in 2022, and the annual sales volume will most likely exceed 40,000 units.
The new energy logistics vehicle industry in the southwest region plays an important role in the national market, and many enterprises and industry media maintain a high degree of attention to this region, especially Chengdu. Get the keys to the market in the region, and the sales of the company will go down a step. However, from the current situation, in 2021, there are nearly 80 companies in the southwest region with sales, and only 7 have sales of more than 1,000 units, indicating that the market concentration in the southwest region is high and the pattern is basically determined. Geely Commercial Vehicle, Xinyuan New Energy, Ruichi New Energy, Changan Kaicheng, Karry New Energy, Dongfeng Motor, and Guangxi Automobile have taken 70% of the market share, which means that there is not much market space left for other companies if there is no accident.
Because of this, the 5th China New Energy Automobile Industry Conference 2022, jointly sponsored by Tram Resources and Chengdu New Energy Automobile Industry Promotion and Application Promotion Association, chose Chengdu as the host city. From May 23 to 25, industry elites, experts and scholars, and industry association leaders in the fields of government, industry, academia, research and use of the new energy automobile industry will gather in Chengdu to talk about the "new trend, new pattern and new ecology" of the new energy logistics vehicle industry, and jointly promote the healthy and orderly development of the new energy automobile industry.