Reporter 丨Dong Tianyi
According to Xinhua Finance, at 12:00 p.m. on Friday (24:00 on April 15), the retail price of domestic refined oil products will usher in a new round of adjustment window, and oil prices may be "sharply reduced for the first time this year".
According to Jinlian Chuang's calculations, as of the eighth working day of April 13, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 103.04 US dollars / barrel, the rate of change was -8.74%, and the corresponding domestic gasoline and diesel retail price should be reduced by 615 yuan / ton, converted into price increases, it is expected to be reduced by 0.47 to 0.53 yuan / liter. According to the estimation of the 50-liter capacity of the general household car fuel tank, filling a tank of No. 92 gasoline is expected to save about 25 yuan.
Image source: Per the reporter Dong Tianyi photographed
Since the beginning of this year, the international crude oil price has fluctuated significantly. According to data from the China Petroleum And Oil Information Network, in early March this year, international oil prices "soared" all the way to $137.64 / barrel, a new high in 14 years. Although there was a subsequent decline, compared with the end of 2021, the international crude oil price has risen from 75.4 US dollars / barrel to more than 100 US dollars per barrel, an increase of more than 30%.
Affected by this, the price of refined oil products in countries around the world remains high. Among them, the mainland oil price ushered in the "six consecutive increases" and "seven consecutive increases" across the year on the evening of March 31, and the No. 92 gasoline and No. 0 diesel fuel were raised by 1.54 yuan and 1.63 yuan respectively compared with the beginning of this year. The price of No. 92 gasoline in most parts of the country has risen to about 8.6 yuan per liter, and No. 95 gasoline has basically entered the "9 yuan era".
The price of gasoline at Beijing gas station No. 92 on April 13. (Picture source per reporter Dong Tianyi photo)
"If the retail price is reduced, the decline is equivalent to a price increase of nearly 4 cents, No. 95 gasoline will be out of the range of 9 yuan / liter, No. 92 gasoline will also avoid the risk of 'breaking 9', then the cost of oil for car owners will be reduced." Jin Lianchuang said.
However, it should be noted that although the international crude oil price has recently slipped from the high point, it still shows continuous volatility. The data showed that following the sharp decline in international crude oil prices on April 12, as of the close of trading on April 13, the price of light crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $6.31, or 6.69%, to close at $100.6 per barrel; Brent crude futures for June delivery rose $6.16, or 6.26%, to close at $104.64 per barrel.
Image source: Oriental Fortune
A few days ago, the China National Petroleum Corporation Economic and Technical Research Institute released the "2021 Domestic and Foreign Oil and Gas Industry Development Report" (hereinafter referred to as the report), saying that in 2022, affected by the intensification of geopolitical conflicts and the rise in market panic, international oil prices will still fluctuate at a high level, and the possibility of short-term oil prices exceeding the historical high level is not ruled out.
For reference, in July 2008, due to tensions in the Middle East and the market's concern about insufficient supply of crude oil, the international oil price reached an all-time high of $147 / barrel, a record that has not been broken. Since the beginning of this year, under the influence of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and other factors, international crude oil prices have continued to rise. On March 7, Brent crude Oil May futures rose to $139/b, and WTI Crude May futures briefly approached $130/b.
In response, Mohammad Barkindo, secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), told the EU side: "The global oil market crisis caused by the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not within the control of the organization, and due to sanctions or consumer boycotts, Russia's oil supply loss may exceed 7 million barrels / day, which will far exceed OPEC's alternative capacity." ”
The above uncertainties will also affect the trend of domestic refined oil prices. The report said that combined with supply and demand fundamentals, as well as geopolitical premium risks, the average price of Brent crude oil is expected to be 97 to 100 US dollars / barrel in 2022.
"With the gradual control of the domestic epidemic and the further relaxation of traffic control, the demand for gasoline and diesel is expected to improve, and fundamental changes may become an important indicator of leading oil prices." However, at present, the sales pressure of the main units is relatively large, and in the short term, it is still active to move the main volume, and it is expected that the domestic gasoline and diesel market may still have room for exploration in the short term. Jin Lianchuang said.
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