China Fund News Sunrise
A new round of oil price adjustment is coming!
At 24 o'clock on Tuesday, January 17, the retail price of domestic refined oil products is about to usher in the second round of price adjustment window this year. According to professional estimates, it is expected that oil prices are expected to usher in a small wave of decline before the Spring Festival.
However, the recent continued rise in international oil prices will also affect domestic oil prices to a certain extent. With two working days to go before the oil price adjustment, the forecast decline may narrow or even reverse. The final changes will have to wait for the NDRC's "official announcement".
It is worth mentioning that on January 3, domestic refined oil products have just completed the first price increase in 2023. The prices of gasoline and diesel were increased by 250 yuan and 240 yuan per ton respectively, which was converted into an increase of 0.19 yuan / liter to 0.21 yuan / liter. However, even after the last round of price adjustments, except for Tibet and Hainan provinces, the domestic No. 92 gasoline price will remain in the "7 yuan era".
Let's see the details——
The second price adjustment in 2023 is coming
According to the oil price adjustment schedule, a new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on January 17, 2023, which is also the second oil price adjustment in 2023, when domestic refined oil prices will show new changes.
The current refined oil price adjustment mechanism takes 10 working days as a price adjustment cycle. According to Jinlianchuang's calculations, as of January 13, the change rate on the eighth working day was -3.81%, the average price of reference oil was 77.43 US dollars, and the domestic gasoline and diesel should be lowered by 220 yuan / ton, exceeding the red line of 50 yuan / ton.
According to the current calculation of the reduction range, if converted into a price increase, it is expected that gasoline and diesel will fall by 0.17 yuan / liter to 0.20 yuan / liter. According to the current forecast of the reduction estimate, the owner can save about 8.5 yuan to 10 yuan by filling up a car fuel tank with a capacity of 50 liters. Although it is only the amount of "add a chicken leg", it is still a small surprise.
However, international oil prices have continued to rise recently. Last week, international oil prices rebounded for five consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of more than 8%. With two working days to go before the oil price adjustment, the forecast decline may narrow or even reverse. The final changes will have to wait for the NDRC's "official announcement" on Tuesday.
It is worth mentioning that on January 3, domestic refined oil products have just completed the first price increase in 2023. According to the National Development and Reform Commission, according to the recent changes in oil prices in the international market, according to the current refined oil price formation mechanism, from 24:00 on January 3, 2023, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be increased by 250 yuan and 240 yuan per ton respectively, which is equivalent to an increase of 0.19 yuan / liter to 0.21 yuan / liter.
After New Year's Day, with the further optimization of domestic control policies, after the peak of the first wave of the epidemic, the frequency and radius of residents' travel have expanded, driving gasoline demand to recover. Some outdoor industrial and mining enterprises actively rushed to work, and diesel consumption increased. At the same time, a new round of refined oil quotas was issued, easing the pressure on domestic supply, the market price mentality heated up, and the wholesale price of gasoline and diesel was rising.
According to Jinlianchuang data, as of January 13, the average price of domestic 92# gasoline was 8731 yuan / ton, up 530 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year; The average price of 0# diesel is 7908 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year.
According to the latest data from the oil price network, as of January 13, the No. 92 gasoline in domestic provinces was 7.5 yuan / liter - 8.9 yuan / liter. Except for Tibet and Hainan provinces, even after the last round of price adjustments, the domestic No. 92 gasoline price will remain in the "7 yuan era".
International oil prices continued to rise
The uncertainty of this round of domestic refined oil price adjustment is not unrelated to the recent continuous rise in international oil prices.
On Friday, January 13, international oil prices rose sharply. As of the close of the day, New York crude oil futures closed at $80.07 / barrel, up 1.68%; Brent crude futures closed at $85.43 a barrel, up 1.67%.
According to the data of the whole week, last week, U.S. oil rose 8.4%, and Brent oil rose 8.6%, both hitting the largest weekly increase in nearly three months.
According to the relevant provisions of the Measures for the Administration of Petroleum Prices, the maximum retail price of domestic refined oil is adjusted every 10 working days, and how the price is adjusted each time mainly depends on the comparison between the average international oil price in the 10 working days before the price adjustment and the average value in the previous 10 working days, rather than simply determined by the change in international oil prices a few days before the price adjustment.
In fact, the pricing model of domestic refined oil products is more complicated, although it will be affected by international oil prices, but the impact effect is limited. There are still two working days left before the price adjustment, and there are still variables in whether the final price adjustment will rise or fall.
For last week's sharp rise in international oil prices, Xiao Yu, a crude oil analyst at Soochow Futures, said that as the US CPI data boosted the US economy with soft landing expectations, and suppressed the expectation of a near-end interest rate hike, coupled with China's travel data further strengthening, European warm winter, crude oil sentiment improved during the week, and oil continued to close positive. The sentimental impact of the U.S. CPI on the crude oil market is expected to be limited to persist, and the short-term cracking upside is expected to end as U.S. refiners gradually resume production after the winter storm passes, running in the same range as oil prices.
The energy and chemical research team of CCB Futures believes that the inflation pressure in the United States continues to fall, the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate hike have cooled, and the macro face of oil prices. On the other hand, the U.S. Energy Information Administration lowered its forecast for mainland crude oil demand in its January report out of concern about the impact of the epidemic after the mainland's deregulation was relaxed. However, from the terminal high-frequency data, road travel in major cities has basically recovered, the impact of the first wave of the epidemic has faded, and the US Energy Information Administration's expectations may be too pessimistic. On the supply side, Russia's crude oil supply in the first quarter may fall significantly under the influence of sanctions, further supporting the fundamentals of the oil market.
Gui Chenxi, head of crude oil research at CITIC Futures, said that oil prices stopped falling and recovered last week. Oil prices fell to a strong bottom support level, and China's demand recovery is expected to provide rebound momentum for oil prices. Demand in the first quarter was low and then high, and if supply factors are stable, oil price fundamentals may be driven by weakness and then strength. However, the amplitude is limited up and down, and the overall may still maintain oscillation.
Editor: Captain