On March 17, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an announcement on the price adjustment of refined oil products, saying that since 24:00 on March 17, domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard products, the same below) have been raised by 750 yuan and 720 yuan per ton respectively, equivalent to about 0.6 yuan per liter. This is the fifth increase in domestic oil prices this year, and no. 95 gasoline in some areas has entered the 9 yuan era. The continuous rise in oil prices has pushed up the cost of using fuel vehicles, and many industry insiders said that this will be good for the development of new energy vehicles.
(Wen 丨 Intern reporter Yang Zi)
The cost advantage is prominent
Affected by the recent international situation, international crude oil prices have risen all the way. Since March, WTI crude oil (light crude oil in West Texas, USA) and Brent crude oil futures have both exceeded $130 per barrel, both of which have reached new highs since 2008.
Under pressure from rising oil prices, mobility company Uber recently announced that it will charge a fuel surcharge for at least 2 months on taxi fares and delivery services in the United States and Canada. Uber said passengers traveling with Uber will pay a fee of $0.45 to $0.55 each time. Meanwhile, Uber's takeout service will charge a $0.35-$0.45 surcharge. In China, taxis in Hangzhou, Guiyang and other places have recently begun to charge fuel surcharges according to the number of trains.
Statistics from the Ministry of Public Security show that in 2021, the number of motor vehicles in the country will reach 395 million, of which 302 million will be cars; the number of motor vehicle drivers will reach 481 million, of which 444 million will be car drivers; and the number of new energy vehicles will reach 7.84 million, an increase of 59.25% year-on-year. This means that rising oil prices will drive up the cost of travel for hundreds of millions of people.
In the view of Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, the rise in oil prices has brought a greater psychological burden to consumers to buy fuel vehicles, coupled with the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, some industries have suffered huge losses, which in turn has affected the purchasing power of many families and impacted the market demand for fuel vehicles.
In contrast, the cost advantage of new energy vehicles is prominent. Shen Hui, CEO of WM Motor, said: "According to the calculation of 50 liters of refueling, it costs more than 450 yuan. 450 yuan is equivalent to the charging cost of a pure electric car for several months. According to the calculation of 100,000 kilometers in 5 years, the electricity consumption of smart pure electric vehicles is about 80,000 yuan less than the fuel cost of fuel vehicles. ”
CITIC Construction Investment Research Report pointed out that the rise in oil prices has accelerated the global electrification process, and consumer mentality will undergo positive changes in mainstream electric vehicle sales markets such as China, the United States and Europe.
There are many links to apportion cost pressures
Since the beginning of this year, due to the rising price of raw materials for power batteries and the shortage of chips, many car companies have repeatedly raised the price of their new energy vehicles. For example, from March 10 to 17, in only 8 days, Tesla raised the price of different versions of Model 3 and Model Y models three times, with an increase of more than 10,000 yuan; BYD Dynasty network and ocean network related new energy models raised the official guidance price by 3,000 yuan to 6,000 yuan. Cui Dongshu analysis believes that the price increase of new energy vehicles will not affect the overall market demand, and it is expected that the sales of new energy passenger cars will reach about 5.5 million units this year, achieving a high growth rate of about 70%.
For new energy vehicles, the price of charging electricity is relatively stable. The price of power battery raw materials has continued to rise for more than a year, and the battery factories and car companies in the industrial chain can share part of the rising cost pressure, so car companies have recently raised the price of their new energy vehicles to transmit the cost pressure to end consumers. In contrast, gasoline as a source of power for fuel vehicles, the impact of its price fluctuations will be quickly transmitted to consumers, making consumers more sensitive.
Of course, domestic oil prices will not rise all the time. According to the "Oil Price Management Measures" and the "Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on Issues Related to Further Improving the Price Formation Mechanism of Refined Oil Products", the upper limit of the mainland refined oil price adjustment is 130 US dollars / barrel, and the lower limit is 40 US dollars / barrel. When the international crude oil price is higher than 130 US dollars (inclusive) / barrel, the price of gasoline and diesel does not rise or rise less in principle; when the price of each barrel is lower than 40 US dollars (inclusive) / barrel, the price of refined oil products will no longer be lowered.
Recently, international oil prices have been sharply corrected. The latest data show that on March 17, WTI crude oil futures were priced at $95.04/barrel, and Brent crude oil futures were priced at $98.02/barrel.
Plug-in hybrid vehicle sales will usher in greater growth
With the continuous enrichment of new energy vehicle products in mainland China, the level of power battery and vehicle technology is constantly improving, and the superimposed intelligent functions make the driving experience of electric vehicles better and better. Statistics from the China Automobile Association show that in February this year, the production and sales of the domestic new energy vehicle market reached 368,000 units and 334,000 units, respectively, an increase of 2 times and 1.8 times year-on-year, and the market share of new energy vehicles in January and February reached 17.9%. An industry insider told reporters that the good momentum of new energy vehicle sales this year is not caused by higher oil prices, and the short-term increase in oil prices will not show too much to promote the development of new energy vehicles.
At the same time, this does not mean that consumers' concerns about charging difficulties are completely eliminated. In this case, plug-in hybrid vehicles have become the preferred new energy models for some consumers. "The rise in oil prices has pushed up the cost of using fuel vehicles, expanding the base plate volume for the further promotion of new energy and even oil-electric hybrid technology." Cui Dongshu said that this year's plug-in hybrid vehicles will usher in a large increase. According to the statistics of the Association, in January and February this year, the market share of plug-in and mixed increased significantly, with sales reaching 77,443 units and 66,609 vehicles respectively, an increase of 207.5% and 265.8% respectively year-on-year. Cui Dongshu pointed out: "To some extent, the shrinking of the mini-car market and the expansion of the plug-in and hybrid model market are all manifestations of the structural adjustment of new energy vehicle products. ”
In addition, the above-mentioned industry insiders reminded: "The sharp rise in oil prices can make new energy vehicles get more attention to a certain extent, but what ultimately promotes the replacement of new energy vehicles for fuel vehicles is not the oil price, but more depends on the improvement of the comprehensive product strength of new energy vehicles and the soundness of the energy replenishment system." ”
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Produced by | China Energy News (ID:cnenergy)
Trainee Editor | Li Zemin
Responsible editor 丨 Yan Zhiqiang