According to the National Development and Reform Commission, from 24:00 on March 31 this year, the price of domestic gasoline and diesel has risen by 110 yuan per ton.
Yes, oil prices are up again.
You may remember that from 24:00 on March 17, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 750 yuan and 720 yuan per ton respectively. Correspondingly, the No. 92 and No. 95 gasoline in most parts of the country have also raised their prices, and the No. 95 gasoline has directly entered the "9 yuan era".
Why do you say "it's up again"?
Because since this year, the domestic refined oil price has been raised six times.
Text | Yun he is a researcher at the Observatory Think Tank
This article is the original article of the Lookout Think Tank, if you need to reprint, please indicate the source of the Lookout Think Tank (zhczyj) and the author information before the article, otherwise the legal responsibility will be strictly pursued.
For the owners of fuel vehicles, the feeling brought by the "six consecutive rises" is of course very intuitive.
For example, a private car that runs 20,000 kilometers a year, consumes 8 liters of fuel per 100 kilometers, and adds No. 92 gasoline will now cost more than 13,700 yuan per year, which is almost 2,500 yuan higher than the oil price at the end of 2021. For owners of No. 95 gasoline, the increase will be even greater.
Oil prices have been raised, and the anxious are the owners of fuel vehicles, and the slightly excited new energy vehicle companies.
Now there are already many voices on the Internet, using a variety of vivid conversion methods, comparing the difference between refueling and refueling.
In fact, with the growth of the new energy automobile industry and consumer base in recent years, fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles have been continuously compared. Today we are also going to calculate an account to see which car is more cost-effective from the perspective of the full consumer life cycle.
In order to make the calculation simple, we intend to start from three aspects: the cost of car purchase, the cost of using the vehicle and the cost of circulation.
Since we have just talked about the problem of refueling or powering, let's start with the cost of use. The use cost is divided into two categories: one is the energy consumption cost, and the other is the maintenance cost.
Let's start with energy consumption.
From this estimation table, it can be clearly seen that according to the existing refined oil prices and electricity prices, the annual cost of burning oil for traditional cars is almost 5 times the charging cost of pure electric vehicles, and the difference can be several thousand or even nearly 10,000 yuan a year, and this gap is very obvious.
Let's look at maintenance. Pure electric vehicles do not have engines, do not need to replace the oil and filter element regularly, so the maintenance of the project is less, the conventional maintenance costs are lower than the fuel vehicle, the average annual gap is about a few hundred to thousands of yuan.
Here's a little bit of aside: we didn't take into account the cost of repairing and replacing some important parts.
For example, the power battery of electric vehicles accounts for about 30% of the cost of the whole vehicle, and we have also seen some news that the cost of changing the battery of the owner is more expensive than buying a car. But now many head manufacturers have warranty rules, some are battery cells lifetime warranty, some are 8 years or 150,000 kilometers of warranty, here we will not repeat.
Now let's go back and look at the cost of buying a car.
In recent years, we can see that the mainstream electric models on the market have seen several rounds of concentrated price increases. Especially since March this year, nearly 20 new energy vehicle companies have adjusted the prices of their models. Many of the best-selling models including Euler, Weilai, Xiaopeng, GAC Aean, Chery New Energy, and BYD have raised their prices, ranging from thousands to tens of thousands of yuan. Tesla set a record of 7 days of "three consecutive rises".
The reason behind this wave of collective price increases for electric vehicles is mainly due to the high prices of upstream raw materials and the decline of superimposed subsidies.
Like nickel, cobalt, aluminum and lithium carbonate are the main raw materials for power batteries, nickel and aluminum are now also widely used in body manufacturing.
According to an investment bank's estimate, the soaring price of nickel alone will lead to an increase in the production cost of an electric car by $1,000, or about 6,300 yuan.
At present, the most affected is the micro-small electric vehicle with narrow profit margins. For example, some time ago, Euler's two popular models black cat white cat have stopped taking orders, the reason behind it is "selling one and losing one".
Therefore, from the perspective of this trend, coupled with the gradual decline of national new energy vehicle subsidies this year, for consumers, in the short and medium term, the cost of buying pure electric vehicles is basically only rising and not falling.
Finally, let's look at the cost of circulation.
The residual value of used cars in pure electric vehicles has always been a big problem.
At present, the average retention rate of electric vehicles in the Chinese market is below 50%, and the retention rate of many independent brands is generally below 40%. In fact, the preservation of the value of new energy vehicles has improved in recent years, but there is still a big gap compared with the retention rate of 60%-70% and even more than 80% of the three-year age of fuel vehicles.
Just now we from the three links of car purchase, use and circulation, to compare the cost performance of new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles, in fact, this account is still relatively shallow, did not include some hidden costs.
For example, for consumers, there may be a difference in the time cost of finding a charging station and finding a gas station, and for example, the environmental costs brought by new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles are ultimately evenly shared among everyone, including car owners.
For car buying and car selection, I believe that every consumer has a delicate little account in mind.
But in fact, if we are willing to stand on a higher perspective, we will find that there is still a big account, and it is worth doing a good calculation.
As we all know, the impact of several oil crises in history on the global economy is very large. But now, many data and cases can prove that due to more alternative energy sources and corresponding terminal products, such as new energy vehicles, oil supply-side fluctuations, the impact on the economy and ordinary people's lives is declining. The so-called energy security, in a sense, is actually "putting eggs in different baskets".
There is a set of figures: In 1973, for every $1,000 worth of GDP created in the world, it consumed nearly a barrel of oil. By 2019, that number had dropped to 0.43 barrels.
Similarly, every time oil prices have been high in the past, global car sales have fallen sharply.
But now we can see that the blow from high oil prices to the entire automotive industry is decreasing. Behind the so-called "battle between fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles", in fact, it also reveals a very clear positive signal, that is, although new energy vehicles are not perfect products, they are also facing a series of problems such as raw material price increases, but at least, we have room and the ability to make more diversified choices.
The good news is that new options are being embraced by more people.
Ten years ago, that is, in 2012, the market penetration rate of China's new energy vehicles was still 0.07%, what is the concept? For every 10,000 new car sales, there are only 7 new energy vehicles; then by 2021, this figure is 13.4%, and private consumption accounts for more than 70% of new energy passenger car sales. This development speed is very fast.
We believe that this is not only the choice made by consumers, but also the choice that a country should make for the long term.
Resources:
1. "Research Report on China's Automobile Retention Rate in February 2022", China Automobile Dealers Association
2. "How have the three oil crises in history affected the industrial chain?" Wall Street Insights, March 2022
3. "If oil prices rise again, don't buy electric vehicles", Tiger Sniff, 2022.3
4. "That's it! Oil prices are rising! CCTV Finance, 2022.3
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