Question: In fact, no one is a god, there is no way to predict the future, what the wise can do is to based on the information resources available at present, combined with their own cognitive structure framework, so as to get the phase

Question: In fact, no one is a god, there is no way to predict the future, what the wise can do is to based on the information resources available at present, combined with their own cognitive structure framework, so as to get the corresponding logical results. But the only constant thing in the world is change, and we can't do anything about the macro changes in the future, only to work on the micro level.

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Reply: After a round at noon, today's fluctuations are almost from negative feedback, not fundamentals. Based on the fundamentals, there will be no public fund heavy position in the direction of brushing down, after all, it is a trillion industry, there are many fundamental acceleration of the upward subdivision link. Negative feedback, the main reason is still more than a year of public offering overall losses, issuance shrank sharply, last quarter of three months were sold 5600, 3200 and 160 billion, so last February did not appear negative feedback, because according to the bear market two months of bull market one month to build a position law, at that time everyone had a lot of money in their hands, and this January this year the public offering issued 80 billion, in other words, the largest source of incremental funds in hand has no money, once someone needs to stabilize growth, then the growth of stocks will be less money, Negative feedback results. This kind of killing, because it is non-fundamental, will definitely bring a big opportunity, but the difficulty is that it is not easy to judge the bottom, and it can only be said that the current corresponding year is very reasonable, and the corresponding next year has begun to be underestimated. Therefore, at this time, it is necessary to make profit forecasts and valuations for the company based on cautious expectations, and then see what you want for the rate of return, and then make a decision.

Turn the Yangtze River: the adjustment is very intense, everyone is very anxious, they all come to ask why, on my own understanding of the unified reply: 1) There is nothing negative, at least I did not understand. The Spring Festival industry does not take vacation production, than the secondary market to fight; 2) indeed after the Spring Festival to learn the fixed income +, absolute income account began to reduce the position, these out of the assessment mechanism constraints, but also had to be, the scale is also quite large; 3) everyone asked the margin of safety, see the valuation has long arrived, this transaction structure fell to which position I can not judge. For the leadership of the new energy fund, everyone can only strengthen their confidence to carry it together. The new energy industry has fluctuated greatly in history, and finally it has come out. For absolute returns, you should actually be excited in the face of this decline.

Transfer:【New Energy Automobile Industry Update-20220210】

Today's plate adjustment is larger, so summarize the news and views of these two days.

1) Fundamentally, since January, new energy vehicle orders have indeed declined because of price increases, but we believe that more car companies in order to cope with short-term cost pressure, intentionally slow down the increase in their orders, follow-up with the stability of raw material prices, we estimate that similar to Tesla models, or will continue to reduce prices.

2) The head enterprise scheduling did fall in February, but it is expected that it is not caused by fundamentals, but this year's Spring Festival and production capacity and orders have basically returned to normal, and enterprises have done normal maintenance and workers' holidays in February (previously updated for everyone)

3) In terms of funds, it is difficult for us to judge the situation of fixed income + and other products, but today there is indeed foreign capital in net sales, mainly due to the recent fluctuations and some overseas news influences, which may form a part of the stampede.

4) Valuation, we pulled a bit, Ningde since the listing of the market value / net profit of the year data, 21 years of the median announcement, 22 years of consistent expectations of 29 billion, in fact, we can see that now Ningde valuation has reached the growth level before the rise in 2019, and after October 2019, the industry still experienced 20 years of less than expected demand under the influence of the epidemic. So from a fundamental point of view, looking forward and backward, the worst is definitely not 2022, so the near future may really be more of a reduction in the position of allocation funds and the trampling caused by it. We are still very confident about the growth rate of the industry and the current valuation level.

Other fundamentals remain unchanged