The ChiNext board refers to more killings, falling into a vicious circle, the market rebound is weak, and 3500 is the high point of this round of rebound! Any big bottom of A shares is born in despair, and must meet the three characteristics of policy bottom, emotional bottom and capital bottom, and now can only wait patiently. In addition, let's talk about where the GEM index will fall.
1. Is the rally over?
The Shanghai Composite Index is in a narrow range, and today's highest rebound to 3488 shows that the pressure level of 3480-3490 is effective, the turnover of the large market is about 380 billion, and the two cities add up to more than 900 billion, indicating that many funds are still waiting.
To be on the safe side, I prompted everyone to reduce their positions yesterday, why do you want to reduce your positions here? On the one hand, there are many sets of tight disks waiting to be unwinded, and the short-term bottom-reading funds will take profits, on the other hand, the overall market is still weak, and the shrinkage rebounds, and it is difficult to have sustainability.
Near 3300 points, the amount of funds that may be eight or nine hundred billion yuan can be pulled up, because the panic plate sells a lot, and the selling order at this time is greatly reduced; but at 3500, if you want to break through further upwards, you need to break through the trillion yuan.
Volume energy is the key factor restricting the index breakthrough, then if the amount can not be released, then the adjustment will soon come, the external Fed interest rate hike this unstable factor, domestic liquidity is not abundant, in this case the rebound follow-up is weak, short-term continue to bearish, medium-term market conditions depend.
Any big bottom of A shares is born in despair, accompanied by the formation of policy bottom, emotional bottom and capital bottom, it is obvious that it is not satisfied now.
2. What are the main lines of the market?
On Monday, I pointed out that there are three main lines in the market in February: big consumption, big finance, big infrastructure, according to this week's market, the current main line has been very clear, one is agriculture, including pork breeding and seed industry; one is big finance, mainly banks; one is big funds, including Chinese characters, old infrastructure and new infrastructure; and there is also a digital economy, led by digital currency.
Structured market, often the strong Hengqiang, so the next step is to lay out around these four main lines, but pay attention to the operation strategy, although the main line is clear, but do not blindly chase up, it is best to wait for the adjustment, or after differentiation, and then look for opportunities.
3. Will new energy be adjusted?
The Ningde era has collapsed again, but it has become accustomed to it, the risk of new energy has long been prompted, the reason for the decline has nothing to do with the fundamentals, because the first two years have risen too much, Ningde times, Longji shares, Sunshine Power and other leaders, two years up 10 times, in the history of A shares is also very rare, such a big increase, large funds to take profits out.
In recent months, the fund has been constantly adjusting positions and changing shares, large-scale redemptions by the basic people, and the collective cutting of meat by retail investors, when the market forms a downward expectation, it is difficult to get better in a short period of time, in addition to the wind power I said before, lithium batteries, photovoltaics are not considered, at least 1-2 months must be adjusted.
4. When will the GEM index stop falling?
Today everyone should be most concerned about the ChiNext index, up a day, and fell sharply to hit a new low, as I said before, there is no bottom at all, now it is falling along the 5-day moving average, rebounding no more than the 5-day moving average, gradually forming a bearish arrangement of the moving average, which is the worst downward pattern.
Out of the monthly line, the ChiNext index has fallen below the 20-day moving average, to the platform level adjusted in March and April last year, and this position is the platform level adjusted from August to November 2020.
From a technical point of view alone, the 2650 area has a certain supporting role, many large capital floating profit costs in this position, and falling here, means that the Ningde era and new energy will continue to fall, falling more will naturally rebound, which is the truth that the stock market will never change.
ChiNext refers to the three years of growth nearly twice, more than a lot of stocks, support its rise in new energy, semiconductors are generally at a high level, the space and amplitude of this adjustment is unimaginable, although I said that there is support below, but also can not be wishful thinking that it will stop falling, only when the trend improves, the market bottom is formed, is the real stop fall.
The above is my judgment of today's market, which only represents my personal views and is not used as a basis for buying and selling.
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