In the past few weeks, the debate over electric vehicles and fuel vehicles has taken a new footing.
On the one hand, the oil price that is high enough to go down in history has made countless fuel car owners cry bitterly, and every time the psychological state of refueling is comparable to the stock cutting meat, the heart is like a knife; on the other hand, due to the sharp rise in raw materials such as batteries, the price of domestic electric vehicles is also rising, Tesla, Xiaopeng, Euler, Weima and a series of brands have recently announced price increases, Tesla Model Y rear-drive version has recently increased by more than 20,000 yuan, making many potential buyers on the sidelines bitter.
Pictured: Tesla Model Y
It should be said that today's situation is a huge positive for some electric vehicles: on the one hand, consumers' fear of fuel vehicles brought about by high oil prices, and on the other hand, the "crazy orders" brought about by the price increase of electric vehicles.
So, in such a situation, how should consumers buy a car according to their own needs?
Oil prices are indeed high, but they will not always be high
High oil prices are an indisputable fact. Taking Shanghai as an example, at 00:00 on March 18, the price of No. 92 gasoline was raised to 8.61 yuan / liter, and the price of No. 95 gasoline came to 9.16 yuan / liter. This means that a 50-liter fuel tank has cost more than 400 yuan to fill up, even if some of the main fuel-saving models still have to pay 50 yuan for fuel every 100 kilometers, the pressure is not small.
But if you're thinking about buying an electric car for that reason, it seems less rational. On the one hand, the rise in oil prices is accompanied by the War between Russia and Ukraine, and after the red line of crude oil prices exceeding the red line of 100 US dollars / barrel, it even directly rushed to the ultra-high line of 130 US dollars, which brought about a crazy rise in global oil prices in such an environment.
For example, in the United States, according to estimates, such oil prices will make American households spend an average of $350 more per month, which makes conservative inflation so much worse for the American people.
Pictured: Vehicles lining up to refuel outside Shanghai's no. 1 gas station
Even so, most professionals understand that such high oil prices are clearly impossible to sustain. A central fact is that the last two times international crude prices exceeded $100/bp were in 2008 and 2011, respectively, and if you're even a little impressed with international politics, you should remember what happened in those two years — yes, the Russian-Georgian war in 2008 and the Libyan civil war in 2011.
In fact, the two sharp increases in crude oil prices in the past have been linked to geopolitics and war. Judging from the past cases, after a period of floating after the rise, it will still return to a low level, even if it is synchronized with the global financial crisis in 2008, the international crude oil price has maintained a high of 100 US dollars / barrel for more than half a year, and has not escaped the final fate of falling to 36 US dollars / barrel in December of that year.
In other words, it is only a matter of time before crude oil prices fall. At present, the price of crude oil has gradually declined, and some professionals have predicted that domestic oil prices will bid farewell to continuous rises in price adjustments at the end of this month.
Along with the rise in oil prices, electric vehicles are also rising in price
All things are not happening alone, while the national oil price is rising, the domestic electric vehicle price is also rising at the same time, how exaggerated is the rise? AutoLab on Thursday to give you an inventory, for details please click to view: "Chart Control | Model Y Afterdrive Edition today the price increase of 15,000, tram price increase which is the most ruthless? 》
And just today, we also received an email from WM Motors, saying that due to the continuous sharp rise in raw material prices, tight supply from suppliers and other factors, WM's price after the comprehensive subsidy of the sold models has been raised by 7,000 to 26,000 yuan, which can be quite amazing.
Figure: WEMA W6
The increase in the price of raw materials upstream of electric vehicles is not unrelated to the Russo-Ukrainian War. Lithium and nickel ore are members of the current upstream raw material price increase, and will become a huge driving force for the price of electric vehicles for a long time in the future.
The only good news comes from the automotive industry analyst Zhong Shi: "There will be no shortage of supply chains in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the short term (the second wave of price increases), and the impact of rising raw material prices on the industry has become an established fact." ”
But why don't we approve of buying electric vehicles for fear of high oil prices? There are two core points, the first is timing, and the second is the costing of the whole lifeline.
According to Chris Harto, an analyst at Consumer Reports, if you're buying an electric car because of rising oil prices, you've probably missed the best time, because there are a lot of people who have similar ideas.
Pictured: Chevrolet Bolt sold in the United States
In fact, because many people have similar ideas, coupled with the already tight raw materials for electric vehicles, it is possible to extend the pick-up time. The overall advantage of electric vehicles in the cost of use will not be reflected in a short period of time. Consumer Reports' 2020 survey concluded that if all spending is taken into account, it will take five years to buy an electric car to pay for itself.
As for the cost accounting of the whole lifeline, we have to mention the retention rate of the electric vehicle "the listener is sad and the listener is crying".
Under the reality that the frequency of Chinese car changes is significantly higher than that of the United States, and the second-hand car industry is far less developed than that of the United States, the cruel reality of a six-year retention rate of 80% and a three-year retention rate of 51% is still a situation that has to be considered. Under such a bleak premise, simply trying to save money by buying an electric car is obviously a irrational decision – the only difference is when the money is spent.
You still have 1,000 reasons to buy an electric car
All of the above is for us to tell you that you don't need a reason to buy an electric car like this. However, Chinese has always been "buy up, not buy down" Under the premise of the big rise in oil prices and the price increase of electric vehicles, it is estimated that the sales data of various electric vehicle companies at the end of March will not be too ugly. However, we still hope that when you choose an electric car, you really see the difference in it and recognize its charm.
Figure: Xiaopeng P7
For example, the following:
Electric vehicles have a more flexible intelligent architecture, and the functions achieved through OTA upgrades are richer and more radical than traditional fuel vehicles;
Electric vehicles are simpler and more direct in driving experience, although they may not be as good as traditional fuel vehicles in terms of fun, but the acceleration torque is also real;
……
In fact, at this point, what we want to say is that as a consumer, you should really choose a car that suits you from your real needs.
Electric vehicles are indeed much lower in the cost of car maintenance, but once they are included in the purchase and second-hand sales, and then consider the increase in electric vehicle insurance costs today, this advantage is not obvious. What can really impress consumers is the incomparable advantages of those electric vehicles.
Just like in love, if you don't like the person in front of you, no matter how good it is, it will only be there; but if you like it, its shortcomings will become unique, making you more tolerant and accepting.