A few days ago, the China Automobile Dealers Association and Jingzhen Estimation jointly released the 2021 automobile retention rate report. As can be seen from the data, the change in the overall retention rate is not obvious, whether from the faction country or the subdivision model. However, some market participants believe that due to the chip supply cut last year, it was difficult to deliver the main sales models of many brands, which made the premium ability of mainstream luxury brands particularly prominent.
The battle for the most value-preserving brands Porsche overpowers Lexus
Under the background of repeated epidemics in various places, the new car market in 2021 has experienced various situations such as tight supply chain, lack of "core" production reduction, the rise of domestic smart cars, raw material price increases, and the vigorous development of new energy vehicles. Domestic automobile sales for the whole year were 26.275 million units, an increase of 3.8% year-on-year; the trading volume of used cars was 17.5851 million units, an increase of 22.62% over the same period last year. At the same time as the growth of new car and second-hand car transactions, the domestic automobile market has also shown a clear trend of consumption upgrading, and has begun to diversify and develop with high quality.
In terms of last year's car retention rate, in terms of brands, brands such as Porsche, Lexus and Toyota are still among the best, while the characteristics of the Top10 are mostly Japanese brands have not changed significantly.
Top 10 in the retention rate of automobile brands in 2021
According to the country, the most valuable brands in the German camp are Porsche, Mercedes-Benz and MINI; Japanese cars are Lexus, Toyota and Honda occupy the top three; among the American brands, Tesla, Buick, and Cadillac have a slightly higher retention rate; wuling, Lynk & Co, and GAC Trumpchi of independent brands are ahead of other brother brands.
Retention rate of Ashkenazi brands in 2021
The retention rate of Japanese brands in 2021
The retention rate of American brands in 2021
The retention rate of independent brands in 2021
Specific to the product retention rate in various segments, the highest retention rate in the car is the Lexus ES series, with a three-year retention rate of 95.53% for used cars; while for SUVs, the three-year retention rate of the Mercedes-Benz G-Class is as high as 104.47%. As for the MPV field, Toyota Alpha's retention rate in the third year can still reach 117.76%.
Top 10 in 2021 for car retention rates
Top 10 in SUV retention rates in 2021
Top 10 in MPV retention rates in 2021
For this almost crazy high retention rate, an industry insider explained that this is completely caused by the price increase of the new car. Because the retention rate is calculated based on the official guide price of the vehicle as a reference standard, rather than the actual transaction price after the markup. Therefore, those models with strong price increases in new cars will also "break the hundred" in the retention rate. Although Alpha has contracted in recent years, supply and demand have pushed its used car prices to remain firm. Mercedes-Benz G-class is also the same reason, last year's retention rate exceeded the former value preservation "god car" Prado, in addition to the "chip supply" caused by tight supply and demand, the main reason is also because the Mercedes-Benz G-class new car price increase is serious, 2.0 basic version has been increased to 500,000, the car's second-hand car retention rate is amazingly high.
"Lack of core" can better reflect the premium ability of luxury brands
As we all know, the retention rate of a product is mainly composed of comprehensive factors such as the basic condition of the model, brand appeal, product strength and market reputation, and new car price system. But some used car dealers believe that 2021 is a bit special.
A senior appraiser of QianliFaming Car Hui pointed out that due to the impact of the epidemic and the lack of cores and other factors, there are great differences and uncertainties in the pricing of second-hand cars compared with previous years. A product last year can maintain a high retention rate, mainly due to the imbalance between supply and demand in the market, which has a greater impact than other indicators. The lack of core in the whole industry has made the residual value of used cars of some models of luxury brands more firm, especially the strong premium ability of Brands such as Mercedes-Benz and BMW.
In the view of a large used car dealer on Haiba Road in Foshan, Mercedes-Benz E-Class, C-Class, BMW 3 Series, 5 Series, Porsche Cayenne and Panamera, their used cars have a very high retention rate last year, while Lexus and Toyota Prado also performed steadily in the retention rate. In September, when the chip shortage was the worst, some second-hand car dealers even recycled some of Mercedes-Benz's quasi-new cars at a price "higher than the new car fare".
A dealer in the Guangjun second-hand car market also told Nandu reporter that last year, during the period of lack of core, the second-hand car market was indeed subject to great fluctuations, especially the hot-selling models of luxury brands led by BBA, and once the price of second-hand cars was higher than the price of new car purchase invoices, but it has returned to normal after the Guangzhou Auto Show.
He said that these "outrageous" models with price increases are mainly products with imbalance between supply and demand in mercedes-Benz E-class, C-class, BMW 3 series and 5 series. However, whether the price of second-hand cars was "firm" last year is mainly related to the changes in the price of new cars. For example, the Lexus ES series, the original new car guidance price from nearly 280,000 yuan to 290,000 yuan, for the owners of the car in 2018, the current second-hand car residual value will be particularly high. When the Tesla Model 3 was more than 270,000 yuan in August and September last year, the purchase price of the one-year-old car was generally around 200,000 yuan. Subsequently, Tesla officials dropped to more than 230,000 yuan, and the purchase price of second-hand cars in the same year fell to between 173,000 and 180,000 yuan. At the end of the year, the price of model 3 rose to more than 250,000 yuan again, and the price of second-hand cars will naturally retrace.
Some dealers have completely transformed into new energy vehicles
Although there are regional differences in the retention rate, the 2020 annual car retention rate can basically reflect the overall market situation in the eyes of dealers in South China.
Sun Mingxia, general manager of the old car trading market of Baolijie, told Nandu reporters that the top five retention rates of various models and countries are basically consistent with the actual trading situation of the market, but the last five are slightly different. In the second-hand car market in South China, in terms of the retention rate of fuel vehicles, Porsche, Toyota, Honda and other brands ranked in the top three. In terms of small cars, the status of Fit and Civic is still unshakable; the Camry, Accord, Lexus, Mercedes-Benz C, BMW 4 of the B-class car still occupies a leading position in the retention rate; while the fuel car TOP10 still has not seen domestic cars, but Lynk & Co and Trumpchi are more and more prominent, and they are the most promising independent brands among the top ten. As for new energy vehicles, independent brand models have occupied an absolute advantage. Among the top ten retention rates, independent brands accounted for six seats. To some extent, this also shows that independent brand new energy products are rapidly rising. Judging from last year's transactions, even in the field of fuel vehicles, domestic vehicles are narrowing the gap with joint venture brands. It is worth mentioning that the retention rate of self-owned brand used cars last year has surpassed that of American cars. Sun Mingxia predicts that independent brands are estimated to appear in the top 10 retention rate within two years.
Nandu reporter learned that two dealers in the trading market have completely transformed from operating fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles. The head of a second-hand car dealership in the guangzhou avenue south used car business circle also said that if you want to select the ten models with the highest retention rate last year, it is basically porsche cayenne and Panamera, Mercedes-Benz C-class and E-class, BMW 3 series and 5 series, Tesla Model 3 and La Model Y, Lexus ES and RX.
Nandu reporter Liang Luozhe
(The retention rate data in this article is provided by China Automobile Dealers Association and Jingzhen Valuation Information Technology Co., Ltd.)