According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "CAAM"), China's automobile sales in April 2022 are expected to be 1.171 million units, down 47.6% month-on-month and 48.1% year-on-year; according to preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Market Information Association (hereinafter referred to as the "Association"), the retail sales of the national passenger car market in April were 1.052 million units, down 35% year-on-year and 33% month-on-month; in addition, according to the data of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers in April was 66.4%. Year-on-year increase of 10%.
It should be noted that the China Automobile Association announced the wholesale sales volume, and the federation announced the retail sales volume, and the relationship between the two is closely related. The so-called wholesale sales volume refers to the total amount of batch supply to dealers by car companies in a certain period of time, and retail sales refer to the total amount of auto products sold by dealers. In any case, wholesale sales will eventually be converted into retail sales, and wholesale sales will generally be higher than retail sales, if the two can not be converted in time, it will produce dealer inventory. As for which of the two is more informative? For individual consumers, retail sales are more valuable, directly reflecting the sales of automotive products in the terminal market, and under the influence of the current epidemic, parts supply, and the sharp rise in raw material prices, wholesale sales can better reflect the situation faced by car companies.
Under the attack of the epidemic and the supply of parts and components, domestic car companies have not had a comfortable life in the past month. On the day of May Day, China's new car-making forces have successively released the April delivery answer sheet, of which Xiaopeng, Weilai, and Ideal are 9,002 vehicles, 5,074 vehicles, and 4,167 vehicles, respectively, with a month-on-month decline of 41.6%, 49.2%, and 62.2%, of which the ideal fell the most, co-founder and president Shen Yanan said that the epidemic has led to some suppliers in Shanghai and Jiangsu Kun and other places can not supply, and some even stop work and stop operations, so inventory parts can not be replenished to maintain production after consumption. Of course, zero-run and Nezha performed well, with deliveries of 9,087 and 8,813 vehicles respectively, but the overall delivery tone in April was almost finalized.
For example, the wholesale sales volume of the CIC Group in April 2022 was 166,600 units, down 40.30% from 419,500 units in the same period of 2021. Among them, as the troika of the group, SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC-GM and SAIC-GM-Wuling sales all fell sharply year-on-year, of which SAIC Volkswagen fell 72.29% year-on-year to 300,000 units, SAIC-GM fell 70.44% year-on-year to 23,800 units, and SAIC-GM-Wuling fell 43.57% year-on-year to 76,000 units. In addition, SAIC Passenger Cars fell 65.77% year-on-year to 18,519 units, and SAIC Maxus fell 56.02% year-on-year to 8,700 units.
SAIC's sales plummeted collectively, and the reasons for this can be imagined. In April, affected by the epidemic in Jiangsu, Shanghai and Zhejiang, including SAIC Volkswagen, Tesla and other vehicle companies, as well as suppliers such as Magneti Marelli, Aptiv, Valeo, ZF, Denso, Joyson Electronics, Sumitomo, Faurecia and other suppliers were forced to stop production, until mid-to-late April, production was resumed, and even so, it is still necessary to experience a long climb to restore to pre-epidemic levels.
At the same time, because Shanghai is an important city in China's automobile industry, the month-long shutdown directly affects the development of China's automotive industry, which can be said to be "leading the whole body". Taking GAC Group as an example, the Group's wholesale sales in April fell 33.56% year-on-year to 124,300 units, of which GAC Honda fell 66.35% year-on-year to 23,900 units, GAC Toyota fell 7.27% year-on-year to 68,500 units, and GAC Passenger Vehicles fell 21.84% year-on-year to 20,100 units.
According to the latest production and sales report released by Great Wall Motor, wholesale sales in April fell by 41.41% year-on-year to 53,800 units, of which the Haval brand fell 47.06% year-on-year to 29,100 units, the Great Wall pickup truck fell 34.62% year-on-year to 13,200 units, the tank brand sold 6,065 units per month, and the WEY brand and the Euler brand sold 2293 and 3088 units, respectively.
According to Dongfeng Motor Group's shareholding data, sales in April were 109,800 units, down 59.09% year-on-year. Among them, Dongfeng Nissan sales fell 54.23% year-on-year to 41,300 units, and Dongfeng Honda fell 79.74% year-on-year to 16,600 units.
According to the statistics of the China Automobile Dealers Association, affected by the epidemic, dealers in 34 cities in the 94 cities surveyed have closed their stores. Among the dealers who have closed their stores, more than 60% of them have closed their stores for more than one week, and the epidemic has seriously affected their overall operations. Affected by this, dealers can not hold offline auto shows, the pace of new car listing is completely adjusted, and the effect of online marketing alone is limited, resulting in a serious decline in passenger flow and transactions. At the same time, the transportation of new cars is limited, the pace of new car delivery is slowing down, some orders are lost, and the turnover of funds is tight.
In addition to the impact on production and sales, as we all know, March to May is the centralized release period of new cars, and due to the prevention and control of the epidemic, the release of many new cars has been postponed. In addition, the Beijing Auto Show was postponed, and many new car releases were released online, and the marketing effect was greatly reduced due to the lack of offline atmosphere and real experience. At the same time, due to the limited travel caused by the epidemic, the enthusiasm of many potential consumers to buy is also getting tired. Surveys have shown that many consumers who have been interested in buying a car have postponed their purchase plans, and the public's attitude towards buying bulk products has been quite rational and cautious.
As for how to go about the May car market? From the current point of view, or will face a period of cold demand. In May, the epidemic situation in some domestic cities has not been effectively contained, such as the upgrading of prevention and control policies in many places such as Beijing, which in turn has led to transportation obstruction affecting the delivery of new vehicles by dealers. At the same time, factors such as rising oil prices, parts supply, new energy and traditional energy vehicle prices have increased, consumers have expectations of price reductions, and the demand for car purchases under the risk aversion mentality will be delayed. The weakening of terminal demand has also further inhibited the recovery of the automobile market. Of course, with the easing of the epidemic, it is expected to return to pre-epidemic levels by June or July, but it will be difficult to compensate for the market losses generated from March to May.
It is worth mentioning that in order to boost the automobile market, the relevant departments of the state and local governments have successively introduced positive policies to stimulate automobile consumption. On April 20, the General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on Further Releasing Consumption Potential and Promoting the Sustained Recovery of Consumption, which requires a steady increase in bulk consumption such as automobiles, and no new car purchase restriction measures in various regions, and at the same time requires that the purchase restriction areas gradually cancel the purchase restriction on automobiles according to local conditions, and promote the transformation of consumer goods such as automobiles from purchase management to use management.
On April 29, the Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued the "Announcement on New Energy Vehicle Purchase Subsidy Activities", from May 1 to June 30, 2022, individual consumers who purchase new energy vehicles within the scope of the "Guangdong Provincial Automobile Trade-in Special Action" to promote new energy vehicles and complete the registration of motor vehicles in the province can apply for a comprehensive use subsidy of 8,000 yuan / vehicle for new energy vehicles. From May to June, on the basis of the original, Guangzhou added 30,000 car purchase indicators and Shenzhen added 10,000 car purchase indicators to better meet the needs of the masses to buy cars; and stipulated that all localities must not introduce measures to restrict car purchases.
The introduction of a series of policies has played a good role in the recovery of the automobile market. However, although many local governments have successively planned to issue consumption vouchers for citizens to stimulate consumption, people's consumer confidence and desire have been fundamentally impacted, "most consumers' consumption plans will change with economic conditions, and many people will choose to cancel automobile consumption."
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