Interview with Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Automobile Association: The growth rate of the automobile market this year cannot reach 5% of the forecast at the beginning of the year.

21st Century Business Herald reporter Zuo Maoxuan, intern Gong Zhaoen reported

According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in March this year, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.241 million units and 2.234 million units, down 9.1% and 11.7% year-on-year, respectively; in the first quarter, automobile production and sales totaled 6.484 million units and 6.509 million units, up 2.0% and 0.2% year-on-year.

The car market has experienced negative growth in March, and due to the epidemic in Jilin and Shanghai, the decline in the car market in April is likely to further expand.

On the one hand, factory shutdowns and logistics and transportation disruptions have led to an overall decline in the production capacity of the automobile market; on the other hand, consumers' demand for car purchases and purchasing power have declined simultaneously. In addition, chip shortages, rising raw material prices, tight battery supply, and uncertainties in the supply chain have brought multiple challenges to the production and marketing of the automotive industry.

On April 27, 21st Century Business Herald reporter exclusively interviewed Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

Xu Haidong believes that due to the impact of the macro economy, the epidemic, chips, etc., it is difficult for China's auto market to reach the growth rate predicted at the beginning of the year in 2022. Relevant departments have introduced a number of measures to promote consumption and stimulate the automobile market. At the same time, the China Automobile Association is also promoting new energy vehicles to the countryside and helping enterprises communicate with the government to promote the consumption of the automobile industry.

21st Century Business Herald (hereinafter referred to as "21st Century"): What are the main aspects of the current decline in the automobile market?

Xu Haidong: At present, the car market is mainly affected by three aspects. First, the macroeconomic downturn directly affects the consumption of the automotive industry; second, the epidemic in Shanghai, Jilin and other places has led to the suspension of work and production of main engine factories, and the interruption of logistics has led to the inability to supply accessories in time. At the same time, some containment policies affect the operation of 4S stores; third, the chip shortage continues to have an impact. This year, the problem of chip distribution may have a certain impact on the supply of mainland independent brands and the entire car market.

Therefore, for the expectations of the auto market in 2022, the overall judgment may not reach the 5% growth rate predicted by the China Automobile Association at the beginning of this year.

21st Century: What measures have been introduced by the official sector to promote consumption? How does this help the car market?

Xu Haidong: On April 25, the State Council issued the Opinions on Further Releasing Consumption Potential and Promoting the Sustained Recovery of Consumption. Among them, the focus is on the issue of "purchase restriction", including lifting the purchase restriction to increase the indicators, exploring the license plate problem between urban areas and suburbs, and canceling some policies such as the relocation of second-hand cars, which are good for the automobile market. At the same time, qualified localities are also encouraged to give some support in terms of new energy vehicles going to the countryside, stimulating automobile consumption, and replacing automobiles according to the strength of various localities.

"21st Century": The data of new energy vehicles in the first quarter is better, will this good trend be maintained in the follow-up? The data of the joint venture car companies in the first quarter was poor, but as a large taxpayer, the main model was fuel vehicles, and now do you need to stimulate the consumption of fuel vehicles?

Xu Haidong: At present, new energy vehicles have entered the channel of rapid growth, unless there is a major event, new energy vehicles will continue to develop normally along the rapid development channel.

The overall automobile market consumption includes traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, both of which are conducive to stimulating consumption throughout the country. Therefore, the traditional fuel vehicle market is as important as the new energy vehicle market, and some corresponding stimulus measures should also be given. But at the same time, stimulus policies often bring overdrafts, and sales increase this year and decrease accordingly next year.

In general, whether it is a traditional fuel vehicle or a new energy vehicle, it is included in China's overall automobile market, its development basis or macroeconomic development, the macro-economy can be steadily upward, consumers will have good employment and income, while having good expectations for the future, so as to drive the consumption of the automobile industry.

"21st Century": This year is the third year that caucus has promoted new energy vehicles to the countryside, what achievements have been made in the past two years? How will the CHINA AUTOMOBILE Association promote new energy vehicles to go to the countryside this year, and what are the expectations?

Xu Haidong: The growth rate of new energy models going to the countryside is higher than the growth rate of the entire development of new energy vehicles. In the half-year period from July to December 2020, the growth rate of the entire market of new energy vehicles was 10%, while the growth rate of new energy models going to the countryside reached 80%. Last year, the overall growth rate of new energy vehicles was about 1.6 times, and the growth rate of new energy models going to the countryside was about 1.7 times, which was also higher than the average. The new energy vehicle to the countryside activity is presided over by 4 government departments, which represents a general direction for the government to promote new energy vehicles, and is also to help enterprises publicize, encourage and enhance consumer confidence. In these fields, caucus has played a good role.

This year, the China Automobile Association will continue the traditional advantages of the past, but also hope to be able to improve, so that the new energy vehicles to the countryside activities to further land, provinces and cities in the local can deepen the promotion, enterprises can further achieve marketing sinking, service sinking, charging facilities sinking, etc., closer to the rural market, in order to continue to promote new energy vehicles to the countryside.

"21st Century": If you want to save the market, you need to introduce some specific measures from relevant departments. As a very key industry organization, what has China Automobile Cooperation done to help enterprises reflect problems and observe the entire industry, etc., and what results have been played?

Xu Haidong: It will collect the opinions of enterprises, understand the current problems of enterprises, and timely feedback these problems to government departments to help the government make decisions, or let the government accelerate decision-making, so that the government's policies can target the work of enterprises and help enterprises solve specific difficulties. At the same time, if the government has some new policies, it will also be communicated to enterprises through the China Automobile Association, so that enterprises can understand and better implement them.

For the current decline in the market, the China Automobile Association is also calling for some policies to stimulate the market, such as advocating a halving of the 1.6-liter purchase tax, canceling the purchase restriction, canceling the restriction on pickup trucks entering the city, etc. The China Automobile Association has put forward relevant suggestions and submitted the suggestions to the government for its adoption.

"21st Century": Last year, China's automobile export growth rate was gratifying, in the current environment, will the export of the automotive industry be affected this year?

Xu Haidong: The Russo-Ukrainian War will have some direct impact on exports to Russia or Central Asia. But the global economy is recovering, which is good for exports. At present, the overseas market is gradually recovering, so the export sector will not be greatly affected, and there are good expectations for positive growth in the export sector.