Lead
Chips, batteries, the epidemic and consumer confidence are insufficient
Are serious obstacles to the positive development of the automobile industry,
How to regain the market and consumer confidence is in front of all aspects.
"On the one hand, because of chips, batteries, epidemics and other factors, car companies have low production or even stopped production, on the other hand, because chip and other price-increasing car companies are scrambling to announce price increases, but to the consumer end, the people do not want to buy cars, can not afford to buy cars."
An auto industry analyst recently told The China Automobile Pictorial that "China's auto market has fallen into this state of inner volume."
Production has been reduced by 92,000 units so far this year
According to the latest data from AutoForecast Solutions (hereinafter referred to as AFS), a data forecasting company for the automotive industry, as of April 24, the cumulative production reduction in the global automotive market this year was about 1.5855 million units due to chip shortages.
It is worth mentioning that the cumulative production reduction in China's automobile market remained unchanged at 92,000 units, accounting for 5.8% of the cumulative production reduction in the global automobile market.
According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, automobile production and sales in the first quarter were 3.474 million units and 3.672 million units, respectively, and production and sales fell by 45.2% and 42.4% respectively year-on-year.
The Guangdong Automobile Dealers Association recently said that the retail sales of automobiles in Guangdong Province from January to March 2022 were 598,000 units, down 1.9% year-on-year.
If you add to that the 10.5 million vehicles that cut global production in 2021, the cumulative production reduction in the global auto market has exceeded 12 million since the chip shortage began.
Toyota, for example, plans to expect an average global production of about 800,000 units from May to July this year due to a shortage of semiconductors.
In the first quarter of this year, China's semiconductor production fell by 4.2% from the same period last year, the first decline since 2019. Of course, this is largely affected by the COVID-19 prevention and control measures in Shanghai, which is a major chip production center in China.
It is worth noting that although most of the production cuts are caused by the epidemic, the car companies have to pay attention to the part of the initiative to stop production and reduce production.
On April 24, Changan New Energy officially announced that it will suspend the order to run the E-Star national version model from 00:00 on April 25. In the first two months, the Euler brand also stopped receiving orders for the black cat and white cat models of Euler Automobile.
Regarding the reasons why these two new energy vehicle brands stopped taking orders, they both mentioned the shortage of upstream raw materials and price increases. The most serious price increases are chips and batteries.
On April 1, SMIC announced that the price will be increased across the board, including orders that have been placed but have not been delivered, regardless of the time of placement and payment ratio, and will be executed at the new price. Relevant data show that the shortage of chips has led to a 100-fold increase in its price.
Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei's consumer business, said, "When I first entered the automotive industry, I didn't know that the lack of cores in the automotive industry was so serious, and a chip of 10 yuan and 20 yuan was speculated to 2500 yuan." ”
Followed by new energy vehicle power batteries, its main materials such as nickel, cobalt, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, VC and other prices have risen collectively, and some auxiliary materials have risen several times compared with 2022.
Taking battery-grade lithium carbonate as an example, its average price reached 300,000 yuan / ton in January 2022 and then opened a jump mode, rushed to 400,000 yuan / ton in mid-February, and broke through the 500,000 yuan / ton mark in early March, up nearly 70% from the beginning of the year.
Car companies have raised prices and stimulated consumption
Due to the shortage of upstream raw materials and the limitation of parts production capacity, the result is not only a long delivery cycle of new cars, but also a collective price increase of car companies.
According to the statistics of China Automobile Pictorial, as of April 25, a total of 20 car companies, including new energy vehicle companies and fuel vehicle companies, announced the price increase of their models.
BYD raised the price of its online ride-hailing models by 6,000 yuan to 16,000 yuan, FAW-Volkswagen's entire range of new energy vehicles increased by 5,400 yuan, and the Great Wall Wei brand increased prices by 5,000-12,000 yuan. Extreme Krypton Automobile also recently announced that the PRICE of the YOU version of the model will increase by 20,500 yuan on May 1.
However, although the production capacity of car companies has declined, accompanied by the announcement of price increases, consumers do not seem to be cold to this.
"The price increase of car companies is not a price increase caused by the relationship between supply and demand in the strict sense." The above-mentioned industry analysts said that in fact, the current car consumption is very low.
In this regard, Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, once said, "From the perspective of automobile consumption, according to the observation of the China Automobile Association, from November 2021, the terminal market will show signs of weakness." ”
According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, car sales in the first quarter were 3.672 million units, down 42.4% year-on-year. The Association of Passenger Vehicles said yesterday that the retail sales targets of major manufacturers in April fell sharply year-on-year, and according to preliminary calculations, the national narrow passenger car retail sales this month are expected to be 1.1 million units, down 31.9% year-on-year.
Sun Shaojun, founder of the automobile sales service platform "Car Fans", said that the overall number of dealers across the country has seen a sharp decline.
This is consistent with what the reporters of this magazine learned during their field visits. A salesman who has been working at a Volvo car dealership in Beijing's West Fourth Ring Road for five or six years said: "I feel that the car is not easy to sell in the past two years, especially this year, many people have not changed cars."
FAW-Volkswagen sales expressed a similar view: "The people who buy our cars are just in need, but the impact of the epidemic, coupled with the price increase or price reduction is too small, many consumers are holding the currency and waiting." ”
Haval Auto Sales said: "The economy is not good, the epidemic has a big impact, the people have no money in their hands to buy a car, and the car is not a necessity."
Mr. Wang of Beijing told this magazine: "I have a car now, I originally wanted to change a car of 300,000, but now that the epidemic is affected, I don't know how to work in the future, so I don't plan to change it."
Sun Shaojun said that on the demand side, the just-needed class at a price of 100,000 to 250,000 yuan is the main force that abandons car purchases, and consumption has shown a weak trend; on the production side, the impact of this round of epidemic on the automobile supply chain is also wider, and then the price of raw materials after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has risen sharply, showing a tight supply and demand situation, and it is difficult to reverse the V-shaped shape of the post-epidemic era.
Actively contribute policies first
To this end, both the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and the government are actively proposing and introducing relevant measures to promote automobile consumption.
On April 25, with the collective decline of A shares, the Shanghai index lost 3,000 points. The auto sector is also not alone, as of the close of trading on April 25, down 5.13% to 2928.51, and the auto sector index fell 7.32% to 866.06 points.
A few days ago, Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said, "We are experiencing the triple pressure of contraction of automobile consumer demand, supply shock and expected weakening, and the task of stabilizing growth is becoming more and more arduous." In this regard, enterprises should also continue to actively take effective countermeasures. On the other hand, local governments should refine the national policies and measures on stable growth as soon as possible. ”
To this end, the General Office of the State Council recently issued the "Opinions on Further Releasing Consumption Potential to Promote the Sustained Recovery of Consumption" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"), which pointed out that "to steadily increase the bulk consumption of automobiles and other bulk consumption, each region shall not add new car purchase restriction measures, and the areas that have implemented purchase restrictions will gradually increase the number of automobile increment indicators, relax the qualification restrictions of car buyers, encourage the purchase restriction areas except for a few megacities to implement differentiated policies for urban and suburban indicators, and adjust the use of automobiles more through legal, economic and scientific and technological means." Gradually abolish the purchase restriction of automobiles according to local conditions, and promote the transformation of consumer goods such as automobiles from purchase management to use management.
In addition, the "Opinions" also pointed out: "Establish and improve the management mechanism of the automobile modification industry and accelerate the development of the automobile aftermarket." Completely abolish the policy of restricting the relocation of used cars, and implement inter-provincial measures for the registration of small non-operating used car transactions. Implement refined management of pickup trucks entering the city, and study further relax the restrictions on pickup trucks entering the city. ”