Recently, according to industry sources, due to changes in the external market environment, Shanghai Medicine CanSino adjusted its production plan for 2023 according to the actual situation, and decided to suspend the production line from April 4 for a period of about 180 days. The specific resumption time shall be subject to the date of the company's notice.
In response to the authenticity of the news, the 21st Century Business Herald reporter immediately verified the relevant people of CanSino, and the other party said: "The news of the suspension of production is still under internal discussion, and there is no more information to be released to the outside world." However, there is also market news that the production base of CanSino's new crown vaccine will be suspended for 6 months.
In addition, according to CanSino's 2022 annual report, the company achieved revenue of 1.035 billion yuan, down 75.94% year-on-year; The net profit loss attributable to shareholders of the listed company was about 909 million yuan. For the reasons for the net profit loss, CanSino mentioned that the main reason is that the market environment of new crown vaccines at home and abroad has undergone great changes during the reporting period, the demand for new crown vaccines has shown a sharp downward trend compared with the same period last year, the growth rate of global new crown vaccination has slowed down, and some regions have shown an oversupply, market competition has intensified, and the company's sales revenue of new crown vaccine products has dropped significantly compared with the same period last year.
According to the 21st Century Business Herald, there are currently 15 new crown vaccines approved for application in China, including the first mRNA new crown vaccine produced by CSPC Pharmaceutical Group approved at the end of last month, and the world's first 4-valent new crown vaccine developed by Shenzhou Cell. In terms of production capacity, according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced in July 2021, the annual production capacity of new crown vaccines in mainland China has reached 5 billion doses.
With the saturation of the domestic new crown vaccine market, the reduction of foreign demand, and the basic end of the new crown epidemic, the huge production capacity of domestic new crown vaccine companies will attract much attention.
15 coronavirus vaccines competed
Since January 8, 2023, China has officially implemented the "Class B and B tube" for novel coronavirus infection, which means that the mainland's epidemic prevention and control measures have entered a new stage. On February 23, at the press conference of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council, Liang Wannian, head of the expert group of the National Health Commission's leading group for epidemic response and handling, said, "From the characteristics of the epidemic itself, it can be said that the epidemic has basically ended, but it cannot be said to be completely over." ”
There is no doubt that the new crown epidemic is coming to an end, and with the release of the financial reports of many new crown vaccine companies, many people have expressed concern about the market prospects of new crown vaccines.
Although CanSino turned a profit for the first time in 2021 due to the release of new crown vaccines, the company's revenue in 2022 fell by nearly 80% year-on-year. Kangtai Biotech's new crown vaccine was approved for emergency use in May 2021, and its sales revenue of immunization program vaccines (including new crown vaccines) in 2021 was nearly 1.164 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 39 times, accounting for about 32% of operating income. In the first half of 2022, the sales revenue of the company's immunization program vaccine was less than 200 million yuan, accounting for only about 10% of the company's operating income. Kangtai Biotech has released a 2022 annual performance loss forecast, and the company expects a net profit loss attributable to the parent of 76 million yuan to 150 million yuan, down 106.02% to 111.87% from the same period last year, which is also the first performance loss since Kangtai Biotech was listed in 2017. Zhifei Biotechnology, which has the world's first marketed recombinant protein new crown vaccine, saw its net profit attributable to its parent in 2022 decline by 26% compared with the same period last year. Non-net profit attributable to parent deduction was RMB7,510 million, down 26% from the same period last year; Operating net cash flow was RMB1,989 million, down 77% from the same period last year. In this regard, Zhifei Biotech explained that the decline in net profit was mainly due to the high base of the new crown vaccine business in 2021, resulting in a decline in the apparent growth rate of net profit in 2022.
Despite the weakening demand in the new crown market, the approval of new crown vaccines worldwide is still accelerating. According to WHO statistics, as of March 10, 2023, 183 new crown vaccines under development worldwide have entered the clinical trial stage. At present, more than 50 new crown vaccine products have been approved for conditional marketing or emergency use worldwide. According to the 21st Century Business Herald, 15 new crown vaccines in China have been approved by the State Food and Drug Administration for conditional marketing or included in emergency use, including CanSino Biotechnology, Sinovac Biotech, China Biotechnology, Zhifei Biotechnology, Kangtai Biotechnology, Lizhu Biotechnology, Clover Biotechnology, Wesker Biotechnology, Wantai Biotechnology, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, Shenzhou Cell, etc. For example, on March 22, 2023, the world's first 4-valent recombinant new crown vaccine (SCTV01E) developed by Shenzhou Cell was approved for emergency use; On the same day, the first domestic novel coronavirus mRNA vaccine (SYS6006) developed by CSPC was also approved for emergency use.
In addition, according to the data of the Smart Bud New Drug Information Database, there are 89 enterprises/institutions in the domestic layout of new crown vaccines, of which more than 10 mRNA new crown vaccines are under development, including Emmi Biotechnology, Si Microbiology, Aygen Biotechnology, CanSino Biotechnology, etc.
For the future market of new crown vaccines, Wang Wenhua, partner of CIC Consulting, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the current trend of new crown epidemic is gradually slowing down, resulting in a decline in the willingness of people to receive new crown vaccines, and the market demand for new crown vaccines has decreased compared with the epidemic period, but due to the easy mutation of the new crown RNA virus, it may become a resident virus of the human respiratory tract in the long term in the future, and the immune protection that the new crown vaccine can provide is generally 6 months to one year, not lifelong immunity. It may become a routine vaccine that will be required on a regular basis in the future.
According to the new crown vaccination situation announced at the press conference of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council on February 23, the number of vaccinated people nationwide is 1.31 billion, about 1.28 billion people are fully vaccinated, and only 850 million people have completed booster immunization.
"In addition, the multivalent and broad-spectrum vaccines developed for different strain antigens, as well as the inhaled and nasal spray new crown vaccines with improved delivery methods, are also the foothold of the new stage to meet the market demand to cope with the weak demand for traditional new crown vaccines." Wang Wenhua said.
However, whether the new crown vaccine companies that entered the market can counterattack through new technologies remains to be seen by the market.
The market extends into a mainstream trend
At present, the market environment of new crown vaccines at home and abroad has undergone great changes, and the new crown vaccine related business is obviously in a downward trend, so how to find new growth points for new crown vaccine layout enterprises has become a topic of great concern.
In this regard, many companies believe that they can make efforts in the direction of commercialization. According to the 21st Century Business Herald, at the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2023, Kangtai Biotech, AstraZeneca and Indonesia's Combiphar signed a strategic cooperation memorandum, according to the content of the memorandum, the three parties jointly promote the localized production and commercialization of Kangtai Biologics' vaccines (including new crown pneumonia vaccines and other vaccines) in Indonesia.
Talking about the reasons for this cooperation, Wang Lei, global executive vice president, international business and China president of AstraZeneca, recently told the 21st Century Business Herald that the supply of vaccines to developing countries is an important direction, "After all, disease prevention must be more proactive and economical than treating diseases, we see such opportunities, and will have a layout in this regard." ”
Wu Yifang, chairman and CEO of Fosun Pharma, also told the 21st Century Business Herald a few days ago that the situation of new crown epidemic prevention and control has changed, and the performance of related products will still occupy a certain market space, but will not occupy a large share. Therefore, in the next step, in the direction of commercialization, the new crown vaccine Fubitai needs to become a normal product and use the regular sales force for promotion.
Some unnamed pharmaceutical executives said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that purely from the perspective of market prospects, the decline in vaccine demand is not a reality that CanSino needs to face, which is a common phenomenon faced by the entire industry. In fact, many new crown vaccine layout companies have extended the technical route of vaccines to other disease areas, such as tumor tracks, which is also a major direction.
For example, although the new crown vaccine has gradually cooled from the past investment fever, the research boom on mRNA technology seems to never subside. On March 2, Watson Biotech answered investors' questions about the progress of research and development of mRNA non-new crown varieties that the company's mRNA technology platform projects also include herpes zoster mRNA vaccine, respiratory syncytial virus mRNA vaccine, influenza virus mRNA vaccine and siRNA drugs for general influenza viruses, all of which are currently in the preclinical research stage.
In addition, the data of the Smart Bud New Drug Information Database also shows that there are 34 companies/institutions along the mRNA route alone, including Abogen Biotechnology, Si Microbes, Lifanda, Shenxin Biotechnology, Yaotang Biotechnology, Jiachen Xihai, St. Regis Biotechnology, Lanque Biotechnology, Xinhe Biotechnology, etc. At present, companies including Si Microbiology and Jiachen Xihai have made some progress in the field of mRNA tumor vaccines.
Wang Wenhua pointed out that during the epidemic, the successful development and promotion of the new crown vaccine also has a profound impact on vaccine research and development, and the approval of mRNA vaccine also verifies the possibility of this mechanism from the technical route, which opens up greater imagination for the development of vaccines for other indications by extending this technical route to other indications. In addition, mRNA vaccines also have the advantages of low production cost, high production efficiency, strong production line flexibility and short product development time, and have great economic value in infectious disease prevention and treatment and tumor immunotherapy.
"For infectious diseases that mutate quickly and tend to reduce the effectiveness of traditional vaccines, mRNA can achieve a specific immune barrier in a short time. At present, infectious diseases caused by influenza virus, rabies virus, Ebola virus, human respiratory syncytial virus and other viruses are all potential development directions of mRNA vaccines. Wang Wenhua emphasized that mRNA tumor vaccine technology allows simultaneous delivery of multiple TAA or somatic tumor mutation antigens, triggering humoral and cell-mediated immune responses; It can encode full-length tumor antigens and stimulate a broader immune response; At the same time, it also has the advantages of production amplification portability and cost, and has great market potential in the future.
Source丨21New Health21 original work
Author/Ji Yuanyuan
Editor/Xu Xu
Image/Figureworm