The epidemic has caused many car companies to stop production, and vehicles that have previously rolled off the production line cannot be transported to other cities (Image source: Visual China)
According to the Titanium Media APP, the China Automobile Dealers Association released data on April 30, and it is expected that the sales of full-caliber narrow passenger car terminals in the month will be about 1.3 million units, down about 25% year-on-year and about 15% month-on-month. The data also shows that the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers in the month was 66.4%, which was above the boom-bust line, up 10% year-on-year and 2.8% month-on-month.
In the hktechnalia forecast, the retail sales of narrow passenger cars in April were about 1.1 million units, down 31.9% year-on-year, which will be the bottom of monthly sales in the past two years.
At present, the production and sales data and insurance volume data of the China Automobile Association have not yet been announced. Some insiders pointed out: "In April, narrow passenger car sales fell by 25% or 31.9%, and the judgment was too optimistic." ”
The decline in sales began in March this year.
Shanghai, Changchun, Shenyang and other cities where car companies are located have been affected by the epidemic since March, and car companies and supply chain supporting enterprises have been forced to stop production. According to the production and sales data of the China Automobile Association, the overall sales volume in March was 2.234 million units, down 11.7% year-on-year. Data from the China Automobile Dealers Association show that the inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in March was 1.75, up 13.6% year-on-year, which means that the average inventory of each dealer is close to two months of sales, and the circulation association said: "The inventory level is above the warning line." ”
SAIC Volkswagen's plant in Anting, Shanghai was forced to shut down (Credit: Visual China)
By April, car companies in Shanghai and Changchun had almost zero production before they could resume work, and the inventory vehicles that had previously rolled off the production line could not be sent to other cities across the country through logistics. In addition, the 2022 strategic models that many brands were scheduled to launch during the Beijing Auto Show were forced to postpone the listing plan, or could only be released hastily through online forms, and naturally did not dare to be extravagant about sales.
According to the sales volume data of some manufacturers in April as of April 17, the research department of the Marketing Expert Committee of the China Market Association (Automotive) counted the sales of some manufacturers in April as of April 17, and the data showed that faw-Volkswagen, SAIC-Volkswagen and SAIC-GM, which are located in Changchun and Shanghai, where the epidemic control is most strict, are all down by about 60% year-on-year, changan, Dongfeng Nissan and Geely are also down by about 50%, and Guangqi Honda, which is less affected by the epidemic, has also fallen by nearly 40%. Some analysts said that this is the closest to the real sales performance in April, and the sales data for the whole month will not improve from the first half of the month.
The postponement of the Beijing Auto Show due to the impact of the epidemic is nothing less than worse for car companies (Source: Visual China)
In the circulation link, not only in Shanghai, Changchun and other cities with serious epidemics, the prevention and control policies of many cities across the country have been continuously upgraded, and even entered a "comprehensive static" state. Car dealers in these cities have been forced to close their stores, and consumers with car purchase intentions have also been grounded at home, and it is not surprising that in-store customer flow has dropped to zero for a period of time, and terminal sales have seriously declined. Shanghai-based Yongda Group (03669. HK) share price has also been affected, its highest price on April 1 was 8.90 yuan / share, and on April 29, it has fallen to 6.14 yuan / share.
The China Automobile Dealers Association said: "In April, due to the stagnation of the upstream automobile industry chain due to the impact of the epidemic, the downstream terminal was affected by the closure of dealers and the price increase of some models, and the overall market demand was weak. For the performance of the passenger car market in May, the circulation association is also not optimistic: "Consumers' current income has decreased, and the epidemic risk aversion mentality has led to weak consumer demand in the automobile market, affecting the growth of automobile sales, and the impact in the short term may be greater than the supply chain difficulties." Due to the complex market environment, the market performance in May is expected to be slightly better than in April, and less than in the same period last year. ”