Half of the top 10 manufacturers in mid-to-early October fell more than 50% and passenger car sales may fall by 30% in April

With the outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai and Changchun and the spread of the epidemic in many places, the retail sales of passenger cars in the narrow sense of the association in March were 1.579 million units, down 10.5% year-on-year, and the car market in April was even more difficult. According to the data of the Association, as of April 17, the cumulative retail sales of major manufacturers were 433,000 units, down about 35.08% year-on-year. Saic And FAW, represented by The North and South Volkswagens, continued to expand their declines. The Dongfeng and GAC systems, which are relatively far from the center of the epidemic, have also fallen by at least 20% under supply chain constraints and epidemic disturbances.

The Association expects retail sales of narrow passenger cars to be 1.1 million units in April, down 31.9% year-on-year. It may become the lowest monthly sales volume since the large-scale outbreak of the epidemic in 2020. At that time, the country was basically under lockdown, with 224,000 units sold in February 2020 and 1.043 million units sold in March.

In terms of specific manufacturers, BYD led the half-month list, leading FAW-Volkswagen by about 0.6 million vehicles. It is the only manufacturer to grow year-on-year. FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC-Volkswagen and SAIC-GM, which are at the center of the epidemic, all fell by about 60%. GAC Toyota and GAC Honda, which did not have a large-scale epidemic, fell less, but the lowest GAC Toyota also fell by 20.96%.

SAIC Volkswagen and GM fell more than 60% The joint venture market was significantly affected

In March, among the top ten companies in terms of sales, independent brands BYD and Changan were able to achieve substantial growth, and Geely also increased slightly by 1.1% year-on-year. Among the joint venture brands, only GAC Toyota achieved positive growth. By early April, only BYD had grown.

Among the joint venture brands, FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM, which are at the center of the epidemic, fell by about 60%, which was significantly impacted. Faw-Volkswagen was the manufacturer with the largest decline in sales in the March top 10. SAIC-GM also fell as much as 31.4%. As the first and second runner-up in sales in 2021, the growth pressure of the two is huge. Since the beginning of the year, SAIC-GM sales have continued to decline, and FAW-Volkswagen has only seen a slight increase of 6.8% in February.

In contrast, other joint venture brands have been more significantly affected by the epidemic. SAIC Volkswagen started the year with a strong performance, with the blessing of Audi and ID series, January and February increased by 51.7% and 79.4% year-on-year, respectively, a slight decline of 2.2% in March affected by the epidemic, and as of April 17, it fell by 60.96% across the board, with only 18,700 units sold. A small-scale epidemic occurred in Guangzhou, where Dongfeng Nissan is headquartered, and as of the 17th, sales fell by 51.57%. GAC Toyota and GAC Honda both maintained rapid growth in the first quarter, and in the impact of the epidemic in April, they were the smallest decliners in the top 10 sales.

Independent brands have mixed feelings. BYD has ridden the east wind of new energy and has doubled every month since the beginning of the year. Even in a plunging market, it still maintained a high growth rate. The Great Wall has fallen all the way, falling out of the top 10 in the sales data as of April 17.

After a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year in 2021, Geely's new growth points in 2022 have not yet emerged. Since the beginning of the year, the sales volume has not changed much, and in April, Geely, which is in the "package mail circle" around the epidemic in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, has fallen considerably. 2022 is a big year for Geely's brand structure adjustment and product innovation, and the rhythm disrupted by the epidemic will inevitably have an impact on its sales.

If Jili is relatively stable, Chang'an and Wuling are ups and downs. After a 33.5% decline in February, Changan's sales rose by 20% in March, but in April sales as of the 17th, it fell 51.57%, making it the largest decline in its own brand. SAIC-GM-Wuling has changed relatively little, but sales have also jumped between ups and downs. Because some of Wuling's functions are in Liuzhou, it has relatively effectively resisted the impact of the epidemic, falling by only 40.66%.

Consumption willingness is reduced The pace of new car launches has slowed down

From the review of the sales performance of the above manufacturers since the beginning of the year, it can be seen that the suspension of work and production caused by the epidemic is not the entire reason for the sharp decline in the overall automobile market. Since the beginning of the year, the sales performance of some manufacturers has been sluggish or fluctuated sharply.

Dealer inventory factor or another proof. According to the results of the "Auto Dealer Inventory" survey released by the China Automobile Dealers Association in February, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of auto dealers in February was 1.85, up 26.7% month-on-month and 10.1% year-on-year. This means that domestic car dealers have an average inventory of nearly 2 months.

The inventory coefficient of the joint venture brand is 2.01, and the inventory coefficient of the independent brand is 1.74. Among them, saic-GM Cadillac, SAIC-GM Chevrolet and FAW-Volkswagen have an inventory depth of more than 2.5 months in February. Therefore, the epidemic seen on the surface has led to factory shutdowns and limited production capacity, which affects sales.

From the demand side, the epidemic has affected the consumption willingness of potential users. Recently, Shanghai, Changchun, Taiyuan, Guangzhou, Shenyang and other places have fallen into a state of lockdown or some areas. The first quarter economic data released by a number of provinces shows that the GDP growth rate of Guangdong, Shanghai and other places affected by the epidemic is lower than the national emergency average of 4.8%.

In the case of insufficient willingness to consume, the pace of brand new car launch is limited by the epidemic, and the market vitality is affected. Many models originally scheduled to be listed at the Beijing Auto Show have been delayed in making their debuts, new cars such as the BMW 7 Series (parameter | picture) and Roewe Whale (parameter | picture) have chosen to be listed online, and The dreamer of Lantu's second car has chosen to postpone the listing. Delayed listings will have an impact on the final sales volume of the year, and in the current downturn in the market, it is difficult for brands to make normal assessments and feedback on the market performance of products based on market feedback.

Since April, the national level has repeatedly issued policies to ensure automobile production and stimulate automobile consumption. On April 18, Vice Premier Liu He of the State Council attended the national video conference on ensuring the smooth flow of goods and promoting the stability of the industrial chain supply chain, clarifying the white list system for key enterprises. On the same day, the logistics transfer station transformed from the former SAIC Auto Parts Supply Warehouse was officially opened. The transfer station can guarantee the transfer demand of 80 trucks in and out every day, with a total loading and unloading capacity of up to 600 cubic meters

On April 25, the General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on Further Releasing Consumption Potential and Promoting the Sustained Recovery of Consumption. Encourage automobile consumption from the aspects of green consumption, new energy going to the countryside, breaking down consumption barriers, and optimizing financial services.