Official data show that from March 1 to April 26, the epidemic in Shanghai has infected nearly 530,000 people. Saic Motor, the "leading car company" in it, has also borne the brunt of becoming the most affected car company in the automotive industry.
Although SAIC motor said that it has launched a stress test to resume work and production on April 18, it is only exploring how to gradually release production capacity under a safe and orderly situation, and there is still a distance from the full resumption of work and production.
In the first quarter of this year, SAIC's production and sales increased by 5.52% and 6.84% respectively over the same period last year, of which the sales and export volume of new energy vehicles maintained double-digit rapid growth, and the situation was good.
At the same time, this year can be said to be a strong year for SAIC's new car offensive. Not only did SAIC Audi officially start operations, but also its Feifan Automobile and Zhiji Automobile were about to start delivery.
To this end, at the beginning of the second quarter, it encountered a black swan event of the sudden shutdown of the epidemic, which was undoubtedly a big blow to SAIC's production and sales goals and employee morale this year.
In the face of the sudden epidemic, SAIC has actually responded in a more timely manner. For example, SAIC's Lingang plant made a decision to close production on March 11, and then entered closed-loop production on March 16.
However, even if enough people can be organized to start work, the subsequent supply of parts is bound to become a major problem.
So, as the most profitable car company in China, SAIC Motor, what kind of losses and impact will the Shanghai epidemic cause to it? Next, Kung Fu Car will do the math with you.
SAIC's sales in April slashed, with a daily loss of 2 billion
In 2021, SAIC Motor continued to win the top position in domestic car sales with more than 5.81 million terminal deliveries in the whole year. In the first quarter of this year, under the severe situation of the industry's lack of cores, the overall production and sales of SAIC Motor Group still maintained a year-on-year growth trend.
According to the past market, the "Auto Show Week" held in April is the month when major car companies carry out intensive new car offensives, and it is also a month in which the sales situation is good. For reference, in April last year, SAIC Motor sold 419,500 units, up 0.5% year-on-year.
To this end, SAIC has suffered a stagnation in production this time because of the epidemic, and the "sequelae" brought about by it are undoubtedly multi-faceted.
First, let's take a look at saic's loss of sales.
At present, SAIC's plant in Lingang has been the most affected. The plant currently has a production capacity of 200,000 vehicles per year, mainly producing Roewe 950, Roewe 550, MG6, MG3, E50 models.
According to media reports, on April 19, the first vehicle of SAIC Lingang Plant rolled off the production line, and more than 700 vehicles have been produced in three days. However, according to Ji Qiwei, deputy general manager of SAIC Passenger Vehicle Company, the production capacity of a single shift can now be used by about 50%. Chen Peifeng, director of SAIC's Lingang AutoMaker, said that if the double shift is fully loaded, the plant's production capacity is about 900 units a day.
In March this year, SAIC motor produced 6.2 passenger cars. With the main production base of the Lingang plant affected, the superior April production and sales will be more likely to be cut, or even lower.
Secondly, in addition to SAIC passenger cars, SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM have undoubtedly suffered greater losses due to the suspension of production.
SAIC Volkswagen's four plants in Shanghai are all located in Anting Town, Jiading District, and they are responsible for its production capacity of more than 1.12 million units. On April 1, Volkswagen suspended SAIC Volkswagen's production work and is expected to resume on April 5.
However, this suspension of production was not until April 25, when there was news that SAIC Volkswagen MEB Plant and Anting Automobile No. 3 Factory would officially resume work and production.
In March this year, SAIC Volkswagen produced 110,000 units. If SAIC Volkswagen is really in a state of suspension for the entire month of April, this sales loss will be huge.
Again, the situation is similar for SAIC-GM. Its factory is located in Jinqiao, Pudong, Shanghai. It is reported that since March 31, SAIC-GM has also stopped some production.
Finally, the main production bases of two companies like SAIC-GM-Wuling and SAIC Maxus are not in Shanghai, and it is estimated that the impact is not large. To this end, we can also roughly calculate that SAIC's sales in April will lose or will be about 200,000 vehicles, and the loss may be as high as tens of billions of yuan.
According to SAIC's total revenue of 552.7 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2021, the daily turnover last year was about 2 billion yuan.
This means that saicidal group's daily turnover in April was at least 2 billion yuan in arrears. In 20 days, nearly 40 billion yuan of revenue was wiped out.
According to previous experience, it generally takes one to two weeks to restore the normal production rhythm after the factory stops production, but because it is still unknown when the current supply chain can return to the pre-epidemic level, it is still unknown when the main engine factory will be able to truly resume full production.
In the view of Kung Fu Automobile, the production and sales lost due to the epidemic can be chased back little by little, but it is a bigger test for SAIC to re-straighten out the disrupted production and marketing rhythm.
In addition, the impact of the suspension will further affect investor confidence in SAIC. The original plan to rely on the two new brands of Feifan and Zhiji to re-establish SAIC's reputation in the field of new energy vehicles has now had to be further postponed.
Kung Fu Automobile saw that since the beginning of this year, in the face of successive declines in the stock market, SAIC Motor has carried out 5 stock repurchase operations to boost the confidence of the capital market. As of March 31, SAIC motor has repurchased a total of 69,458,741 shares at a cost of 1.33 billion yuan.
Since the beginning of this year, saicid's market value has fallen by 25% in the month, and its stock price has fallen from a high of 21 yuan to about 15 yuan today.
While busy resuming work and production, while busy buying back, it can be said that SAIC is the truest portrayal of this April.
Another darkest hour in the car market
According to data released by the Association of Passenger Vehicles, the average daily retail sales in the first three weeks of April this year were 27,000 units, down 39% year-on-year, a larger margin.
"The resumption of work and production since April 18 is still in the recovery process from stress testing to normal production, and it is normal for manufacturers to have low wholesale, but the severity of the decline is still beyond expectations." The Multiplication Association will point out.
At the same time, a table of april car companies' insurance volume data circulating in the industry seems to be more influential.
In the table, BYD became the only car company to achieve positive growth in the month with a number of 35,743 insured vehicles.
Saic-Volkswagen and SAIC-GM, both of which fell by nearly 70%, were the two car companies that fell the hardest.
In the view of Kung Fu Automobile, after the epidemic, it may further promote the pace of new energy transformation of car companies. Because of BYD's rise against the trend, it will have a certain impact on the traditional car companies that are currently sluggish in production and sales.
At the same time, the association also pointed out that the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicles will drive international car companies to accelerate the establishment of new supply chains in China, so as to ensure their competitive position in the Chinese market.
In fact, the soaring sales of new energy vehicles have become the biggest highlight of their performance. Last year, SAIC's new energy vehicle sales reached 733,000 units in the same period, an increase of 128.9% year-on-year, ranking first in China and second in the world.
The eye-catching results of new energy vehicles are undoubtedly the key to saic's financial performance growth in 2021.
Although SAIC's 2021 financial report has been repeatedly postponed due to the epidemic, according to SAIC's earlier third quarter 2021 financial report, SAIC's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 20.35 billion yuan in the first three quarters is already equivalent to its net profit attributable to shares in 2020.
To this end, it is foreseeable that SAIC Motor will achieve better growth in its financial report in 2021. What the industry is more worried about is that the financial losses caused by the suspension of production in April may be difficult to estimate.
However, SAIC Motor is also constantly expanding its own track, intending to actively use the capital market to promote the process of industrialization and commercialization.
According to incomplete statistics, at the end of 2021, SAIC has cultivated 20 "science and technology innovation companies" such as Jie Hydrogen Technology, Zhiji Automobile, Feifan Automobile, Zero Beam Technology, Youdao Zhitu, Saike Intelligent, and Lianchuang Electronics. As of now, Jet Hydrogen Technology has started the spin-off and will become the first company under SAIC to achieve an IPO.
Kung Fu shoots
As a national automobile leader, it is foreseeable that the production suspension of SAIC Group due to the epidemic will have a very large negative impact.
In addition to the resulting sales loss, it will be a long process for SAIC To repair its performance throughout 2022.
But what is certain is that SAIC Motor, which recovered from the crisis, will cultivate into a stronger and more resilient leading car company.