"Lack of core" has become a global crisis in the past two years.
As many as 169 industries around the world have been hit to some extent by chip shortages, ranging from steel products and concrete production to air conditioning manufacturing, beer production, and even soap manufacturing.
The global automotive industry is also subject to chip shortages in these two years. According to incomplete statistics, in the whole of 2021, the global auto market has reduced production by 10.5 million vehicles, almost 1/8 of sales.
In China, delivery delays and disguised price increases are the norm, and even the price of second-hand cars and even futures orders has risen, which can be said to be very outrageous.
And just in April this year, another wave of the Omikejung epidemic swept the country. Due to the inability to supply chips and other components, car production in April is about to be cut.
And without production, there is no sales. As of April 17, the April sales of 10 car companies fell by more than 50% year-on-year, of which SAIC and FAW can be described as "bleak".
The only red color in "Thousands of Miles of Green" belongs to BYD, and the number of insured vehicles reached 35,000, an increase of 89% year-on-year.
All car companies are worried about not having cars to sell, only BYD's sales are rising, or soaring. Why?
After a simple analysis, it is not difficult to find that BYD is the only car company in the list of so many car companies that can develop its own chip.
BYD Semiconductor has launched the automotive grade 8-bit MCUBS9000AMXX series, and the client application development project has been fully launched;
And just this past April 21, BYD also reached a cooperation with Horizon, equipped with Horizon Journey 5 chip BYD car, will be listed in 2023.
Cooperation + self-research, BYD has silently prepared so many back roads for its chip supply. It seems that the steam
The overall lack of core in the car industry is inevitably unequal within the industry, and some people are calm and some are worried.
01. In the face of "lack of core and little soul",
Our car factory will only be there to call!
After seeing the causes and consequences of Huawei's sanctions by the United States, I believe that most people have learned the importance of chips for mobile phones.
And to today's smart cars, the importance of chips is not far behind.
Unfortunately, mainland automotive chips are also facing the same dilemma as mobile phone chips, with short production capacity and weak self-research capabilities.
In the words of Zeng Qinghong, CEO of GAC, the self-sufficiency rate of mainland automobile chips is less than 10%, the localization rate is only 5%, and the supply is highly dependent on foreign countries.
At the 2022 China Electric Vehicle 100 People's Conference in March, Miao Wei, former minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, angrily criticized domestic car companies, "Foreign auto factories have begun to invest in TSMC for production capacity, and our auto factories will only call there!" ”
Behind this, in fact, it is "indisputable" to the mainland automotive industry.
Knowing that the chip is difficult to do, but also know that you are difficult, do not ask you to be able to come up with a self-developed chip that can be used immediately, but the production capacity of the international top chip manufacturers can still compete for it!
After all, from the perspective of actual delivery, the lack of cores will have a considerable impact on car companies in 2021.
Weilai's production capacity has fallen sharply, and Xiaopeng and the ideal choice are to reduce the allocation and delivery and make up for it later. The same is true of other car companies' response to the lack of cores.
The most disturbing operation is Euler's "core changing door".
Just when the butterfly effect caused by the lack of cores affected the entire industry, Qualcomm suddenly released a message that hit the face of many car companies.
"Although the global chip shortage began at the end of 2020, our automotive chip manufacturing has not been affected, and Qualcomm 8155 chips are not out of stock."
The implication is that we Qualcomm did not delay the manufacturing arrangements of car companies, and your car production was reduced, but don't blame me for not supplying you with chips in time.
That's interesting.
On the one hand, chip manufacturers say that their chips are produced normally, and on the other hand, car companies say that they can't buy chips.
So where did this chip go?
Those car companies that can't hand over cars, are there a lack of chips?
02. Car companies: I am really "missing core"
Those car owners who can't get the car because of the "lack of core", don't be in a hurry to get angry.
Many car companies really can't buy chips, and they really don't lie.
First of all, the epidemic must stand up and take the blame.
When the epidemic came, the factory stopped production, no one went to work, and the chip could not be produced naturally.
Even if the resumption of work and production after a few days of suspension, if you want to restore production capacity to the level before the suspension of production, there must be a process of climbing, and it is impossible to directly pull the production capacity on the first day of construction.
Think about the state of the first day of work after your long vacation, even if you oppress the machine, you have to maintain it properly, right?
This wave of the epidemic has indeed caused a great impact on the production capacity of chip manufacturers. But as production gradually resumes around the world and has experience responding to the epidemic, by October 2021, this factor has basically no impact on chip production.
However, the chip production capacity has been guaranteed, but it does not mean that the automobile chip production capacity has been guaranteed.
The main applications of semiconductors involve integrated circuits, consumer electronics, communication systems, photovoltaic power generation and other fields, while automotive chips account for only 12% of global semiconductor applications.
Consumer electronics chips, which are increasingly in demand, are the main business that chip manufacturers attach the most importance to. This part of the terminal also includes the mobile phones that everyone contacts the most every day, PCs, tablets, bracelets, game consoles and so on.
Compared with consumer electronics chips with strong demand and lucrative profits, automotive chips are both troublesome and not making much money, and chip manufacturers naturally have little willingness to share more production capacity with the automotive industry.
It should be known that in the case of a certain production capacity, chip manufacturers can allocate production lines for different types of demand.
Car companies to the head chip manufacturers to produce capacity, and Apple, Intel and other consumer electronics companies on the same stage to compete.
For example, TSMC, the world's largest semiconductor manufacturer, accounted for only 5% of its revenue in the automotive chip business in the first quarter of 2022, while smartphones and HPC (high-performance computing) accounted for 80% of revenue.
Among them, Apple alone accounts for 26% of TSMC's revenue. In addition to Apple, TSMC's big customers include MediaTek, AMD, Qualcomm and so on. None of the top ten customers are car companies!
In the limited production capacity of automotive chips, car companies have to face competition between friends.
The new domestic car manufacturing force "Wei Xiaoli" wants to grab orders with global car giants such as GM, Honda and Volkswagen.
To put it mildly, "The key is three yuan and one yuan, ten yuan and three, do you deserve it?" ”
When the supply is sufficient, a part can also be given to the car company. But now there is a shortage of chips around the world, and the old patrons who have cooperated with the new studio for many years are still not available. If you want goods, you can, you have to add money!
Of course, this tone is not something that all car companies are willing to endure. After experiencing the suffering of this wave of chip supply cuts, car companies such as the Great Wall and Weilai have begun to carry out chip self-research.
But self-research is not easy to talk about, BYD in 2002 set up an IC (integrated circuit) design department, "core" so far 20 years, but also only with some of the chip self-development and self-production capabilities, advanced process of chip production has not yet been overcome, but also face materials, equipment constraints.
Therefore, in the long run, "less than production capacity" may still be one of the reasons for the shortage of chips in car companies.
In addition, there is a big problem in front of car companies - malicious speculation.
Capital is profit-seeking, and one of the things that capital especially likes to do is to "take advantage of your illness and ask for your life."
With limited capacity and increased demand, the scarcity of chips is obvious.
As long as there is a way to receive chips, this is obviously a big profit.
As Yu Chengdong said in the interview a while ago, a chip originally only needed ten or twenty pieces, and was directly fried to more than 2500 yuan.
The situation that the price of this chip has increased by more than 200 times may be too extreme, and there is also the possibility of "Yu Big Mouth" and Big Mouth. However, a ten-fold and twenty-fold increase is indeed very common in the industry.
But what he said about "not accepting such a high chip speculation price" seems to be the unanimous choice of strong car companies.
Just two days ago, in the live broadcast of Porsche's release of the Taycan Cross Turismo, a large number of Porsche owners came out to brush the screen to defend their rights, and the boycott vehicle was unprovoked by the Porsche official.
The reason for this reduction is actually that Porsche thinks that the chip is too expensive, saying that the steering wheel is equipped with an "electric steering column", which becomes a "manual steering column" in the hands of the owner.
"One more bitter car owner, scold me to bear!"
Like Porsche, the car companies that rack their brains on the assembly chip and do not want to be "wronged" are comparable to the Tieba brother who can't buy a reliable graphics card during the mining disaster and "pick up garbage" everywhere.
However, in the graphics card market, the mining tide has receded, the new series of graphics cards will be sold, and the 30 series graphics cards that have been badly known at present will sooner or later fall into the hands of the profiteers who hoard goods.
The chip shortage of cars has triggered a series of endless moths in car companies.
There is nothing wrong with resisting scalpers, and it is understandable that car companies want to avoid the impact of high-priced chips on profits as much as possible, but this price should not be borne by the owner.
03. Guaranteed delivery, or guaranteed profits?
"The black and white cats stopped taking orders, not to stop production, but to encounter difficulties!"
On February 14, 2022, on this supposedly sweet Valentine's Day, Euler, who claimed to know the best female car owners, announced that the black cat and white cat two crown models stopped receiving orders.
What could be the reason for a car company to give up selling its highest-selling car?
Lose money!
In 2021, Euler broke out the "core changing door" incident. Since October, there have been Euler good cat owners, and they have found that the chip carried in the smart cockpit of their car is not Qualcomm 8155, but the Intel 4-core A3940 listed in 2016.
The difference in computing power between the two is as great as that of BMW and Baojun.
The "core changing door" was not properly solved by Euler, but intensified, and finally Euler Xiti CCTV roll call, follow-up also need to bear up to 400 million yuan of compensation amount.
At this point, the blow to Euler is not over.
Time to 2022, the entire domestic new energy automobile industry "welcomes" the subsidy slide, raw material prices rise.
According to estimates, the black cats and white cats that were originally positioned as small profits and high sales will basically sell a loss of 10,000 yuan after 2022.
According to the sales of 85,300 black cats and white cats in 2021, if sales continue in 2022, Euler will lose 853 million.
At this point, the choice of Great Wall Insurance's profitability has been very clear - to retain the good cat models with relatively high prices, and strategically abandon the black cats and white cats that lose money.
The Euler Mall is now only available for sale on the Good Cat model
Speaking of which, the president also has a small Easter egg to share with everyone.
Known as the qualcomm 8155 of the car chip ceiling level, many new energy electric vehicles are not used, but some blue-brand gasoline vehicles have appeared.
If there is really a lack of cores, why only blue-plated cars have to be used, while electric vehicles that should be equipped with the same chips do not?
In addition to delaying car companies to make money, there is no possibility of a second.
From this level, the so-called "lack of core" of car companies, together with "rising raw material prices", is the best fig leaf for car companies, and behind it is the fact that the product strength of car companies is not enough and the brand appeal is not strong.
The lack of cores is, to some extent, Schrödinger's lack of cores.
As the saying goes, it's only when the tide is low that you can find out who's swimming naked.
If it is only the cost increase caused by "lack of core and less electricity", then in theory, the price increase should be able to solve the problem, which is also what car companies have chosen to do since the first quarter of this year.
So why are some models still going to the point of going out of sale?
Because the price increase is not enough to solve the problem.
Some models, their own profits are extremely thin, or even lose money. The reason why it can be produced is to take new energy subsidies and the profits that can be exchanged for energy saving under the double integration policy.
For a car, if its profits are basically derived from the sales costs and subsidies of positive points, when these policy factors are canceled, naturally there is no value in production.
Of course, if these are not problems for car companies, this car can also continue to be produced, but there will be another problem -
Is there anyone willing to sell?
Perhaps everyone is used to the direct operation model like the new forces, but in fact, in the majority of third- and fourth-tier cities, as well as traditional car companies, they still need to rely on dealers.
This means that the price of a car can not only consider the profits of car companies, but also leave enough profit margins for dealers.
Why was Xiaomi originally an "Internet mobile phone" brand, only selling online through Internet channels?
It is because the profit of Xiaomi mobile phones is not high, and offline dealers cannot make any money selling a Xiaomi mobile phone, so they prefer to vigorously promote OPPO and VIVO in front of consumers.
The same is true in the automotive industry.
Therefore, these new energy vehicles, whose profit margins are all supported by policies, are actually similar to Xiaomi mobile phones to some extent:
Don't dare to raise prices easily.
Because at that time, it was the users attracted by the low price, and the sales volume after the price increase was bound to drop sharply.
Therefore, if the car company knows that no one will buy it after it knows that the price increases, why bother to take this fate? Leaving a beautiful bubble of "helpless to stop selling", whitewashing taiping, is also very good.
"Lack of core" has also become an excellent excuse to explain the suspension of some models.
The voice of global chip production capacity shortage has been shouting for nearly two years, and really car companies have already tried all kinds of ways to solve problems, or devote themselves to self-research, or invest in chip manufacturers, or seize the talk of new framework cooperation...
In a word, things are dead, people are alive.
04. Write at the end
The wave of the epidemic in Shanghai in April made the domestic chip production capacity, which was not rich, worse again.
Due to the closure of the epidemic, it is not only car companies that have stopped production, but also chip manufacturers.
Shanghai concentrates more than one-third of China's fabs, packaging and testing factories, as well as more than 30% of chip design and core component raw material manufacturers, so Shanghai chip companies have a higher priority.
To this end, Wang Jiangping, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of Shanghai, held a video conference on April 5, saying that it is necessary to establish a "white list" of key enterprises and concentrate resources to prioritize the resumption of work and production of 666 key enterprises in key industries, including integrated circuits.
Let the chip manufacturers in Shanghai seize the opportunity to resume work and production, which can only solve the urgent need for a while.
Earlier, Yuan Chengyin, secretary general of the China Automotive Chip Industry Innovation Strategic Alliance, said in an interview that there are two ways to solve the chip shortage in the short term: one is to use its own resources to get as much share as possible in the global chip allocation; the other is to make up its mind to find alternative products.
The matter of "production capacity" has already been mentioned by the president in the previous article. "Looking for alternative products" here refers to the use of domestic chips to replace foreign chips with "card necks".
In response to this, Yuan Chengyin said very bluntly, "Domestic car manufacturers should have more confidence in independent chips, and at the same time, do not simply expect that the price of independent chips is lower than that of current products, and the performance is better." ”
The chip industry is one of the industries that need cutting-edge technology the most, and it is necessary for all parties in the industry to participate in growth, which not only requires growth time, but also needs space for development.
If car companies are really as "short-sighted" as Miao Wei, the former minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and refuse to give a little more tolerance in the face of mainland independent chips, how can the independent chip industry grow up under the encirclement and suppression of foreign capital?
Fortunately, there are already more and more car companies and chip companies that have taken action.
We have every reason to believe that the future of domestic smart cars will definitely use China's own chips.
Here, the president also made a post to prove that this time will not exceed three years. Three years later, we'll look again.
![Who is holding the "core" of car companies?[fig]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=)