On May 6, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released data that it is expected to complete new car sales of 1.171 million units in April, down 47.6% month-on-month and 48.1% year-on-year.
"The impact of terminal consumer demand on the automotive industry may be greater than the supply chain difficulties in the short term." As early as mid-April, Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said in an interview with Phoenix Auto that due to the direct and indirect impact of the epidemic, the terminal market has also experienced a sharp decline.
In the past two months, under the dual impact of the epidemic and the rise in raw material prices, car companies have struggled to survive the production capacity crisis, but they have encountered a strong cooling of consumer willingness. Terminal feedback, the number of consumer bookings decreased significantly. At the same time, consumers have expectations of price reductions, and there may be a delay in demand.
Chen Shihua expects that without significantly increased policy measures to promote the growth of the automobile industry, it will be difficult to achieve the 5% growth target expected at the beginning of the year this year.
What are the lasting effects of weak consumption as the pandemic spreads? How to boost the car market?
The data slides low
On the first day of May, the new car-making forces successively handed over the April delivery volume answer sheet, which can be summarized in four words.
Extreme Kr was the first to announce the results, and the delivery of 2137 vehicles was not outstanding, but the 19% month-on-month increase was still somewhat gratifying.
In horizontal comparison, The delivery volume of Xiaopeng, Weilai and Ideal was 9002 vehicles, 5074 vehicles and 4167 vehicles respectively, and the month-on-month decline was very heartwarming, followed by 41.6%, 49.2% and 62.2%.
Although Zero Run and Nezha got 9,087 and 8,813 deliveries respectively, which is not bad, the overall delivery tone in April was almost finalized.
Among them, the decline of the ideal car is the largest, with a full 60%. Officials said it was supply chain issues that affected the delivery of new cars.
Shen Yanan, co-founder and president of Ideal Automobile, said that the epidemic has caused some suppliers in Shanghai and Jiangsu Kun to be unable to supply, and some even stopped work and operation, so inventory parts could not be replenished to maintain production after consumption.
According to public information, the ideal automobile base is located in Changzhou, Jiangsu Province, and its parts suppliers are basically in the free mail zone (more than 80%), most of which are located in Shanghai, Kunshan, Jiangsu and other places.
It is understood that Ideal Auto is trying to find a way to restore production capacity and strive to control the delay in delivery within 3 weeks.
"A car is not a part can not be produced", Li Bin, founder of Weilai Automobile, explained the impact of the supply chain, affected by the epidemic in Changchun and Hebei, as early as mid-March, parts have been cut off, Weilai Automobile is relying on inventory to barely support until the beginning of April, but also encountered the epidemic in Shanghai and surrounding areas, more partners regardless of supply.
It is understood that the Weilai Hefei plant stopped production for a week in early April, which further increased the pressure on orders. At the same time, the promotional news released by Weilai C6, ES6 and ES8 in May also made potential customers of Weilai 886 hold a wait-and-see attitude.
In "Wei Xiaoli", the month-on-month decline of Xiaopeng Automobile is relatively small, if you look at it from the perspective of a year-on-year increase of 75%, Xiaopeng Automobile's performance is not bad.
Some industry analysts believe that this is related to the "geographical advantage" of its production base. Xiaopeng Automobile's four production bases are located in Zhaoqing, Guangzhou and Wuhan, Guangdong, all far from the free shipping area and relatively unaffected.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Automobile Market Research Branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association(CNA), predicted that the epidemic may cause about 20% losses to China's automobile production.
Although there is no specific data to compare, under the epidemic, the supply and transaction of parts suppliers and product distributors in Shanghai, the Yangtze River Delta region, Jilin, Shandong, Guangdong, Hebei and other places have been greatly affected, and the actual losses are self-evident.
Who is to blame for the decline in sales?
"Since March, there have been outbreaks of different degrees in Changchun, Shenyang, Shanghai, Suzhou, Guangzhou and other places. On the one hand, it has led to the suspension of work and production of car companies and upstream and downstream enterprises, on the other hand, the relevant cities have also entered static management. The closure of 4S stores in various shopping malls has had a great impact on auto retail," said Zhang Xiang, dean of the New Energy Vehicle Technology Research Institute of Jiangxi New Energy Technology Vocational College, when talking about Sales in April.
Data from the China Automobile Dealers Association on the "China Auto Dealer Inventory Early Warning Index Survey" shows that the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 66.4% in April, an increase of more than 10%.
The data is the highest peak since March 2020, reflecting the extent to which the epidemic has affected the auto market.
In a sample of 94 cities surveyed by the China Automobile Dealers Association, 34 cities involved the closure of dealers due to the provisions of the epidemic prevention and control policy. Among them, more than 60% of the store closure time reached more than one week, and almost all dealers in Shanghai were silent.
Since Shanghai is an important town in China's automobile industry, major domestic car companies have set up dealerships or experience stores here. According to data, Shanghai will sell 736,700 new cars in 2021, ranking first in China.
The month-long shutdown here is hard not to spread to other regions.
It is worth mentioning that March-May is the centralized release period of new cars. Subject to the prevention and control of the epidemic, the Beijing Auto Show was postponed, and many new cars were listed online, and the marketing effect was greatly reduced due to the lack of offline atmosphere and real experience.
At the same time, due to the limited freedom of travel, many potential consumers of cars between "can and can't" are also tired of buying enthusiasm.
In addition, the continuous price increases spontaneously formed by car companies have also made the purchase sentiment increasingly consumed.
The wave of price increases in March has just passed, and a new round has been set off during May Day.
On Labor Day, Extreme Krypton Automobile announced that due to the increase in raw material prices, the WE version increased its price by 5,000 yuan in disguise; the top YOU version also raised the guidance price, with an adjustment range of 18,000 yuan.
On the same day, Lynk & Co 01 PHEV, Lynk & Co 05 PHEV, Lynk & Co 06 PHEV, and Lynk & Co 09 PHEV simultaneously announced price increases, with an increase of between 2,000 and 4,000 yuan.
Alpha T653S+, Alpha T H, Alpha S 708S+, Alpha S 603H four models, all raised by 5400 yuan. Ford Muskang Mach-E raised $7,000-22,500.
The two wave of price increases are both affected by the epidemic and the rise of materials, but the difference is that when the first wave is held, "people resist the pressure of price increases and wait for the car schedule", and the second wave is likely to be "there is no one with a car".
Liu Yan, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Industry Association and director of the brand service and exhibition department, said in an interview with the media that the lack of willingness to consume will inevitably lead to a decline in sales.
According to survey data, many intentional car consumers have postponed their purchase plans, and the public's attitude towards buying bulk products has been quite rational and cautious.
End consumers lack confidence in the economy, and it is no longer a brand that can "coax" good, engage in programs, and do interactions.
Will the car market be good in May?
Some industry analysts believe that the next car industry or will face a period of cold demand.
With the resumption of production and work, from April 19 to 23, more than 700 vehicles, including Zhiji, Feifan, Roewe, MG mg and other brands, have rolled off the production line (less than 200 vehicles per day are produced, and the normal level can reach more than 1,000 vehicles per day). The total production cycle of the Roewe RX5 was raised to 70JPH, and the production capacity climbed by 38,000 units per month.
"In May, car companies will achieve a small batch of resumption of production and work", Zhang Xiang told Phoenix Motors, Tesla from April 19 to the present, according to the daily production capacity of more than 2,000 vehicles, has produced a total of 15,000 vehicles, which is 50% of its normal production capacity.
"The more optimistic forecast is that car companies will return to the normal production level before the epidemic in June. In July, car companies may work overtime to catch up with the loss of production capacity in the first half of the year", but in Zhang Xiang's view, this does not mean that it can make up for the sluggish auto market in March and April.
The government is exerting efforts from the macro-control level.
The General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on Further Releasing Consumption Potential and Promoting the Sustained Recovery of Consumption.
It mainly puts forward guidance on specific issues of automobile consumption, such as vigorously developing green consumption, fully tapping the consumption potential of counties and townships, breaking down barriers to restricting consumption, and optimizing financial services.
Various localities have also followed up with policies to encourage automobile consumption. For example, Guangzhou announced that consumers can get 10,000 yuan subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles (8,000 yuan for old-for-new), and 5,000 yuan subsidies for fuel vehicles (3,000 yuan subsidies for fuel vehicles).
In addition, Guangzhou wants to increase the license plate qualification of 30,000 fuel vehicles this year. If the average price of these 30,000 vehicles is 200,000, behind this will be nearly 6 billion yuan in sales.
Will the auto industry usher in retaliatory sales growth next?
"Unlikely", in Zhang Xiang's view, the impact of the epidemic on the economy is so great that the income of the people is decreasing, and most consumers' consumption plans will change with the economic situation, and many people will choose to cancel car consumption.
Although the governments of Beijing and Hong Kong have issued or successively planned to issue consumption vouchers to the public to stimulate consumption, people's consumption confidence and desires have fundamentally been affected.
"Just like people who don't have breakfast on the first day don't choose to eat two breakfasts in a row the next day."