Wang Tengwan, whose wedding date is approaching, did not expect that buying a car has now become a matter of "fighting luck". According to the results of the consultation with his fiancée, Wang Teng wanted to choose mercedes-Benz GLC as the first car of the small family, and he was originally happy about one thing, but he encountered "small trouble" in the car pick-up process.
"We finally selected the car, the money was ready in place, and I wanted to hurry to the store to pick up the car, but the sales staff told me to wait at least two or three months." This unexpected "episode" made Wang Teng's joyful mood discounted, and his fiancée also made a small fuss with him.
For Wang Teng's encounter, Qian Le, as a salesman, is very sympathetic, but he is helpless. "Now it's not about the car, it's the car that picks people." Like in our store, if it is a model and configuration in the store, customers can order if they like, and those that do not have in the store need to wait, at least two months to start. Qian Le is a salesperson at a SAIC Volkswagen 4S store in Beijing, and during this year's "May Day", the "Golden Week" she has been looking forward to for a long time has not arrived.
Empty and quiet 4S shop during May Day (Image source: Photo by reporter Pei Jianru)
There are no customers who watch cars or buy cars in the huge exhibition hall, and there are only three staff members in Qian Le's store, including her, who are "left behind", and even test drives cannot be arranged.
"In previous years, the 'May Day' holiday was a small peak of our performance, and everyone was looking forward to these days. However, this year's epidemic prevention and control is severe, no customers have come to the store to see the car, and many employees are blocked or working from home, and we are now on duty in turn. And the car in the shop is not very complete, the manufacturer is more affected by the epidemic, and the production is also restricted. When it comes to work, Qian Le feels very powerless. As a North Drifter, she has a lot of money every month. For a salesperson, no customer is the same as no money, but she can't help it.
Worse, this is almost a common problem faced by many 4S store salespeople recently. During the "May Day" holiday, the "Daily Economic News" reporter visited the terminal sales market in Beijing, covering many automobile brands such as luxury, joint venture, independent, new energy, etc., but did not see that 4S stores have holiday promotions, and few consumers come to buy cars.
There is no customer flow in the 4S store (Image source: Photo by reporter Pei Jianru)
Behind the embarrassing status quo of the terminal is a string of cold numbers. According to the data of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, the retail sales targets of major manufacturers in April fell sharply year-on-year, and according to preliminary estimates, the national retail sales of narrow passenger cars are expected to be 1.1 million units, down 31.9% year-on-year. According to a survey by the China Automobile Dealers Association, due to the provisions of the epidemic prevention and control policy, dealers in 34 cities have closed stores, and among the dealers who have closed stores, more than 60% of dealers have closed stores for more than one week, and the epidemic has a serious impact on their overall operations.
But the good news is also coming. At present, many automotive industry chain enterprises have gradually recovered from the suspension and production reduction, and played the march of resuming work and production, and many policies to support the development of the automotive industry are also on the way. Zhang Xiang, dean of the New Energy Vehicle Technology Research Institute of Jiangxi New Energy Technology Vocational College, told reporters: "It is now generally believed that there will be no significant year-on-year decline in the automobile market this year. In the second half of the year, car companies will work overtime to make up for the lost production capacity in the first half of the year. All parts of the country have also begun to introduce automobile consumption policies to encourage consumers to buy cars. This will be good for subsequent car consumption. ”
Passenger flow plummeted, with a 70% gap in vehicle supply in 4S stores
"Why should I wait" and "how long to wait" are the two questions that Gao Hai explains the most to customers now. He is a salesperson at a Mercedes-Benz 4S store in Beijing, and according to him, the current pick-up cycle is as little as two or three months, and more than half a year, which is also the norm he has recently faced. The main model sold in the store is the C-class sedan, and the store has prepared more than 100 vehicles in advance.
"Now many manufacturers are in a state of reduced production, and there are two main problems: one is the shortage of chips, and the other is that the accessories are out of stock nationwide. Now the severity of the shortage of accessories has exceeded the shortage of chips. "A brand of car sales staff told reporters that we have a lot of accessories on the vehicle rely on imports, but due to the epidemic situation, transportation and logistics are limited, and it is difficult for accessories to enter the country, resulting in the company's normal production.
The above-mentioned sales staff told reporters that in April this year, a total of 30 cars arrived at the store in the 4S store, and the store's normal monthly sales were more than 100 vehicles. This means that there is a gap of nearly 70% in the supply of single-store vehicles. "The factory is now on a day off the previous day, producing 300 cars a day, with an average of two cars per shop in 5 days. We were informed that the parts issue would be improved in mid-May. Gao Hai said.
A 4S shop (Image source: per reporter Pei Jianru photo)
The epidemic coupled with the continuous extension of the pick-up cycle has made the cash offers of 4S stores lose their due attractiveness. The reporter visited and found that many brands of models have cash discounts ranging from 20,000 to 40,000 yuan, but the results are minimal. Taking GLC as an example, the entry-level configuration model of this car has a cash discount of 30,000 yuan, but the reporter was in the store for several hours, and no consumer came to see the car. "Consumers also know that there is no car, they will not come to the store at all, at most call to ask, there are more than 10 orders in front of this car that have not been delivered." Gao Hai had become accustomed to this.
Chen Miao, who is also a salesperson of the 4S store, already feels idle and panicked. In the Dongfeng Nissan 4S store where she is located, there are many cars that have been labeled as special cars, with the highest discount of 40,000 yuan, but still no one cares. "The car is a new car but the production date is relatively early, because of the epidemic, the car can not be transported, before arriving at the store to do a variety of tests, and finally arrived at the store from the production date has passed more than half a year, we can only promote the processing." Chen Miao told reporters.
The sharp drop in passenger flow and the cold at the terminal are not only the encounters of fuel vehicles, but even the new forces directly operated stores in the bustling business circle have also felt the chill. "This is simply the coldest 'May Day' in history, and I think it's strange to see someone come to see the car." Wei Yan is a salesperson at a Weilai experience store in Beijing, and he was still very busy during the Qingming Festival, but May Day was completely idle. "Because of the epidemic, everyone is not out, there are few people in the whole mall, and it now takes at least eight weeks to pick up the car, and many customers are waiting."
Car experience shop in the business district (Image source: Photo by reporter Pei Jianru)
"Because of the epidemic, the 4S store cannot be opened, and the employees have been sealing their homes for more than a month." A lot of work can not be carried out, and you can only call some consumers every day and do a return visit. At present, we mainly understand their car purchase plans and wishes. In the return visit, we have already felt that many consumers say that their jobs and incomes have been affected by the epidemic, and they will cancel or postpone their car purchase plans. This will also have a big impact on us. Wang Xia, a salesperson at a SAIC Volkswagen 4S store in Shanghai, said.
According to a survey, 41% of people said that they would postpone their car purchase due to the impact of the epidemic, and 16% said they would cancel their car purchase plan.
Because of the greater sales pressure, Xu Yan's JiKr brand store has cancelled the performance appraisal in May. "Of the two versions of the Extreme Kr 001, the WE version has a delivery cycle of 5 months, and the YOU version starts from half a year. The pressure is too great, we still have an assessment last month, and this month it began to be canceled. Xu Yan told reporters.
Car experience shop in the business district (Image source: Photo by reporter Pei Jianru)
The cold reception of front-line sales is precisely the reflection of the current car market embarrassment. According to the Association of Passenger Vehicles, domestic retail sales of passenger cars in the third week of April were 177,000 units, down 46% year-on-year, while in the first three weeks of April, the average daily retail sales of domestic passenger cars were 27,000 units, down 39% year-on-year. According to the latest data, the sales volume of new car-making forces in April declined month-on-month, and no company delivered more than 10,000 vehicles. Among them, the monthly sales of Ideal Automobile and NIO Automobile fell by 62.2% and 49.2% respectively.
Shen Yanan, co-founder and president of Ideal Auto, said that more than 80% of Ideal Auto's parts suppliers are distributed in the Yangtze River Delta region, and a large part of them are located in Shanghai and Kunshan, Jiangsu Province. Affected by the epidemic, some suppliers can not supply, and some even completely stop work and operation, resulting in a serious impact on the company's production, and the delivery of new cars for some users is delayed.
Dealers are under pressure and have difficulty in capital turnover
Terminal sales are not good, and dealers are directly under pressure. There are car companies that stop production, reduce production and hand over cars, and have customers who are willing to buy cars in the downturn, and dealers are "sandwiched" in the middle, calling "pressure mountain".
According to the latest issue of the "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Alert Index Survey" VIA (Vehicle Inventory Alert Index) released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, in April this year, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 66.4%, up 10 percentage points year-on-year, up 2.8 percentage points month-on-month, the inventory early warning index is above the boom-bust line, and the automobile circulation industry is in a sluggish range.
Image source: China Automobile Dealers Association
Affected by the epidemic, dealers' offline auto shows cannot be held, the pace of new car listing is completely adjusted, and the effect of online marketing alone is limited, resulting in a serious decline in passenger flow and transactions. At the same time, the transportation of new cars is limited, the pace of new car delivery is slowing down, some orders are lost, and the turnover of funds is tight.
The reporter learned that at the end of March this year, due to the impact of epidemic prevention and control measures, a car dealership in Changchun could not operate normally, and there were temporary difficulties in capital turnover. Subsequently, the dealer's banker's acceptance draft was about to expire, but it was difficult to pay on time. In the end, banks and manufacturers jointly formulated special bailout measures.
"Now dealers are really under a lot of pressure, the main problem is that there is no customer flow, and the sales volume in the store has dropped by about 20%. Manufacturers will have some support policies, and we all believe that it should get better soon. Zhao Lin, a joint venture brand dealer, told reporters.
Jin Yu, a commercial vehicle brand dealer, also told reporters: "It is really difficult for dealers now, and the profitability of 4S stores is shrinking. First, the impact of the epidemic, and secondly, the market as a whole is not very good, and customers have nothing to do when they buy a car. ”
Jin Yu said that according to the requirements of epidemic prevention and control, his store will be closed for a week from May 6, and employees will work from home. "No one can catch up with this situation, they can only hold on." Jin Yu said.
According to a survey of 94 cities by the China Automobile Dealers Association, dealer inventory, market demand, average daily sales, employees, and operating conditions indexes all fell month-on-month in April. The upstream automotive industry chain has been affected by the epidemic, the downstream terminal has been affected by the closure of dealers, as well as the price increase of some models, the overall market demand is weak, dealers are facing the dilemma of declining profitability and tight funds, some dealers have reduced salaries and laid off employees, and the employee turnover rate is high.
Under the severe situation, the Jiangsu Automobile Circulation Association even issued a document calling for the relevant departments to increase the rescue of automobile dealers from the aspects of tax reduction and fee reduction and interest discount support, rent and labor subsidies, car purchase subsidies and purchase tax reductions.
According to the survey data of the Jiangsu Automobile Circulation Association, in March this year, the passenger flow of automobile consumption in Jiangsu Province decreased by 30% month-on-month and nearly 50% year-on-year; in the first quarter of this year, the sales volume of automobiles in Jiangsu Province fell by 7.3% year-on-year, of which the sales volume in March fell by 18.4% year-on-year; the loss of dealers in the first quarter was as high as 70%, and the inventory coefficient averaged more than 2.0, higher than the national sampling survey average (1.75) and the warning line (1.5). Due to the sharp decline in sales and maintenance revenue, the inventory financing of commercial vehicles cannot be released, the repayment pressure is large, and the fund gap of some single stores is as much as 5 million to 10 million yuan.
However, it is worth mentioning that there are also feedback from dealers that in order to cope with the impact of the epidemic, manufacturers have successively introduced support measures, including reducing task indicators, adjusting assessment matters, strengthening online marketing support, and providing subsidies related to epidemic prevention.
The China Automobile Dealers Association believes that the epidemic prevention and control has been tightened, and the production, transportation and terminal sales of car companies have been greatly affected in April, coupled with the slowdown in the pace of new car listing after the extension of vehicles in many places, the current income of consumers has decreased, and the epidemic risk-averse mentality has led to weak consumer demand in the automobile market, affecting the growth of automobile sales, and the impact in the short term may be greater than the supply chain difficulties. Due to the complex market environment, the China Automobile Dealers Association expects the market performance in May to be slightly better than in April, but it is likely to be lower than the same period last year.
The supply of parts and components has caused the logistics cost of the main engine factory to "cook without rice" to ten times the usual
The reasons behind the "chill" of the domestic auto market and the "no car to sell" of dealers are complex.
"The first reason is the shortage of means of production and parts supply, most car companies only have 14 days of spare parts inventory, after running out, the production line has to stop." Zhang Xiang told reporters, "Since March, only 40,000 cars have been sent to Shanghai. In 2021, SHANGHAI's total production volume will be about 2.8332 million units, an average of 236,000 units per month, which shows the great impact. ”
According to the reporter's incomplete statistics, from April 19 to 23, more than 700 vehicles including Zhiji, Feifan, Roewe, MG and other brands have rolled off the production line, with an average of less than 200 cars produced per day. "At normal levels, these brands can produce about 1,000 cars a day. And since Tesla resumed work on the 19th, only about 15,000 new cars have rolled off the production line. Before the epidemic, Tesla's daily production capacity was more than 2,000 vehicles, and now Tesla's production capacity has not yet returned to 50% of normal levels. Therefore, it is expected that the main engine factory in Shanghai can only guarantee small-scale production in May. Zhang Xiang said.
"Due to the impact of the epidemic in Shanghai, our supply was once again aggravated by the shortage of chips in April." Li Xueyong, deputy general manager of Jietu Automobile, said in an interview with the "Daily Economic News" reporter that from September last year to the end of March this year, the supply of Jietu could only meet 40% of the market demand, and after April, the pressure was further increased.
"Automotive is a long chain industry, and every chain is a link. Only by interlocking can a car successfully roll off the production line. Shang Lin, a salesman at BYD, told reporters, "The epidemic in Shanghai has greatly affected the national automobile industry." For example, most of the country's fuel vehicles' EFI systems come from Shanghai, and after the outbreak of the epidemic, the production rhythm of suppliers has been affected, and the subsequent national production rhythm and sales rhythm will be delayed. ”
Image source: Photo Network - 500936466
As Shang Lin said, the total number of parts of a car is more than 10,000, and the entire production chain is complex and precise. It is understood that nine of the top ten parts groups in China are located in Shanghai. For example, the EFI system suppliers of domestic car companies mentioned by ShangLin are mainly Bosch, Delphi and DENSO, of which Bosch products account for about 60% of China's EFI market, and Bosch's headquarters is located in Shanghai. At the same time, Shanghai and Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have important Yangtze River Delta automotive industry chain clusters, gathering more than 300 automotive-related enterprises such as Joyson Electronics and Horizon, covering chips, sensors, generators, engines, electronic control systems and other segments of the industrial chain. According to the guosen securities research report, there are 17 independent parts and components enterprises in Shanghai, and the main customers are SAIC, Mercedes-Benz, Honda, Toyota and other car companies.
"Shanghai has the best cluster of parts and components enterprises, and it can be said that the resumption of work and production in Shanghai determines the resumption of work and production of the national automotive industry." If the (shutdown and reduction of production) continues for a long time, the secondary disaster loss of auto parts is huge. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Association, revealed that according to the production data of various provinces disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics, Shanghai and Jilin Province each account for about 11% of the national production. Therefore, the production and sales of passenger cars in the core areas of the automotive industry such as Shanghai and Jilin will be greatly affected in April.
In addition, the obstruction of automobile logistics and the delay in arrival of goods are also one of the reasons why there are "no cars to sell" in the terminal market.
"Under normal circumstances, car logistics is transported from one factory to another by truck, which is a 'door-to-door' service. However, during the epidemic, car logistics out of Shanghai may need to pass through three drivers, three trucks, exchange goods at two transfer stations, or use trailers to pull the trailer away. In the process of transfer, the driver also has to do sanitize, nucleic acid, antigen detection and other work, which will lengthen the time, increase costs, and reduce efficiency. Logistics costs during the pandemic are about ten times what is usual. Zhang Xiang said.
The Jiangsu Automobile Circulation Association also said that due to the impact of the epidemic, many dealers include "vehicles in transit" in their inventory, and they cannot return the payment if they cannot pay the car, which not only cannot meet the needs of customers for new orders, but also easily leads to customer returns. Maintenance accessories also affect the development of after-sales business because they are not in place.
In addition, Cui Dongshu believes that the employee attendance rate and the level of resumption of work and production are also important reasons affecting the automobile market: "It is difficult to resume production under the guarantee of epidemic prevention and safety, and it is difficult for the factory to meet the needs of all employees to rest and produce in the factory." At present, the attendance rate of employees in the main engine factory factory may only be 30% to 40%, which is only a small range of resumption of work and production. ”
The resumption of work and production is accelerating Experts predict that the automobile market will not decline sharply throughout the year
The good news, though, keeps coming.
The suspended upper end of the industrial chain and the complete vehicle have gradually resumed operation. Up to now, the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Information Technology has issued two batches of white lists of enterprises resuming work and production, of which the first batch of whitelist enterprises have a resumption rate of more than 80%, and the second batch of enterprises resuming work and production has a total of 1188 enterprises. At present, more than 200 Shanghai auto parts suppliers involved in integrated circuits, automobile manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries such as SAIC Motor, Tesla, ZF and Continental have started to resume work.
SAIC Motor said that more than 40,000 employees in Shanghai-affiliated enterprises have been stationed in the factory to carry out closed-loop operations and production, and SAIC Motor's vehicle enterprises are expected to gradually resume normal production in mid-May, and the production and sales of vehicles in that month will strive to reach the same period last year. Zhang Xiang expects: "OEMs and supply chain enterprises in Shanghai can resume small-scale production in May and return to normal levels before the epidemic by June." ”
Image source: Daily Economic News Liu Guomei photo (data map)
"At present, the chip problem is gradually alleviating, and the May and June branches will slowly pull to more than 60% to 70% of our demand, and it is expected that after June and July, it should basically last above 80%. With the full resumption of work in Shanghai and the resumption of production of key enterprises, our supply parts can also be basically satisfied. Li Xueyong told reporters that since the end of April, Jietu's daily orders have increased significantly, "basically breaking through 500 orders per day, and it is expected to recover to more than 1,000 daily orders after 'May Day'."
In terms of logistics, on April 18, the national video conference on ensuring the smooth flow of goods to promote the stability of the industrial chain supply chain stressed that it is necessary to issue and use the national unified pass in sufficient quantity, the nucleic acid test results are mutually recognized nationwide within 48 hours, and the closed-loop management of "that is, to pick and go" is implemented, and the passage must not be restricted on the grounds of waiting for nucleic acid results, which further strengthens the importance of ensuring the smooth flow of goods. According to the data disclosed by Capital Securities, more than 25 provinces have now used the national unified style of key material transport vehicle passes, and more than 16 provinces have introduced a "white list" management system for truck drivers.
As the epidemic is under control, car dealers in shanghai are also preparing to resume work. "Although we can't go to work yet, we are already planning to do some preparations to resume work, and we expect to be able to resume work in a small part by May 10." Wang Xia told reporters: "In order to boost sales, after the resumption of work, many models will have greater discounts, and the actual transaction price will be lower than before the epidemic." For example, for models with cash discounts of 12,000 yuan in previous years, subsequent discounts may reach 18,000 yuan. In short, we will consider various ways to attract consumers to buy a car. ”
The reporter also learned that on the days when they could not resume work normally, dealers were already saving themselves through various means. "As with the epidemic in 2020, we will try to carry out online marketing with vibrato, short videos and other methods. In practice, due to the lack of in-store experience links, the online conversion rate is very low. We generally use online marketing as a form of drainage, inviting them to the store later to complete the transaction. Shang Lin said.
At the same time, the Jiangsu Automobile Circulation Association called on the government and OEMs to give dealers some support to alleviate the financial pressure on dealers. "I hope that the government will increase its rescue efforts, such as tax reduction and fee reduction and interest discount support, and rent reduction for dealers for 3 to 6 months." It is hoped that the OEMs will speed up the arrival time of rebates, reduce the annual plan targets, especially give relief tasks to the epidemic areas, reduce sales indicators, etc., increase the cash flow of dealers, etc., and help enterprises to get out of the predicament together. Jiangsu Automobile Dealers Association said.
According to the reporter's understanding, at present, Audi, Ford and other car companies have introduced the task of downgrading dealers in the affected areas and canceling some business assessments in the first quarter.
"After predicting the epidemic, the recovery of the car market is also a complex and tortuous process. The epidemic situation across the country is still recurring, and it will take time for the traffic of 4S stores to recover. In May, the retail sales volume of the auto market will still have some pressure, and it will be difficult to return to normal levels. It is expected that a full recovery will not be possible until July and August. Cui Dongshu believes that "first, consumers' wait-and-see mentality will be enhanced, and various localities need to introduce policies to give consumers confidence in consumption." Second, it takes time for the supply side to recover, and raw material prices and transportation costs have also increased significantly. Third, factors such as the overseas epidemic and the Russian-Ukrainian crisis have made the overseas market unclear, and there will be challenges in automobile exports. All of these situations are likely to break the 5% growth rate of the annual auto market. ”
However, Li Xueyong is optimistic about the development of the automobile market after the improvement of the epidemic. "The demand in the market will not change, but because the epidemic has been delayed, once the epidemic improves, the car market will still resume development." For example, after September 2020, the automobile market has developed rapidly. I personally believe that after July and August this year, the domestic auto market will still have a wave of more optimistic growth, after all, there is still just need. Li Xueyong believes that after the recovery of the car market, there will be a wave of explosive growth in SUV cross-border models suitable for travel and tourism, and this wave of growth will continue in the next three to five years. Based on this judgment, Jetway did not adjust the annual sales target of "200,000 vehicles for 300,000 vehicles" this year.
In this regard, Zhang Xiang also gave positive expectations for the auto market in the second half of this year: "Now it is generally believed that there will be no significant year-on-year decline in the auto market this year. In the second half of the year, car companies will work overtime to make up for the lost production capacity in the first half of the year, and secondly, we have paid attention to the fact that all parts of the country have begun to introduce automobile consumption stimulus policies, for example, Guangdong has launched a policy of 3,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan in car purchase subsidies to encourage consumers to buy cars. So for now, the epidemic in the past two months will not cause a sharp decline in car sales throughout the year. ”
(At the request of the interviewees, Wang Teng, Qian Le, Gao Hai, Qian Miao, Wang Xia, Wei Yan, Xu Yan, Jin Yu, Zhao Lin, and Shang Lin are pseudonyms)
Reporter: Pei Jianru Huang Xinxu
Editor: Sun Lei
Typography: Ma Yuan
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