Dr. "Copper" is back, has he come with a gift?
Copper is the king of commodity futures, mainly because it has strong financial attributes and the trend is very similar to the trend of the global economy. Copper price trend I look at the downward trend, why? As I said in the previous article, BlackRock, the owner of a mining fund with more than $100 billion in the world, has a large-scale position in reducing copper-related assets, and two-thirds of BlackRock's mining funds are in stocks and one-third are on futures, so its every move is related to the general trend of varieties. Remember my saying: analyzing the market is logic, but making a plan is a skill. Bearish does not mean to be short now, these are two different things, there are differences in strategic and tactical choices. For example, I lost more PTA last night, and when I reach the loss point, I must go, there is nothing to linger. But in my analysis, the sharp decline in crude oil is not yet time, and the probability of domestic chemical adjustment continuing to rise for two days is greater, so I still have to pick up more chemicals, but what varieties? PTA gap to make up for the support is not so strong, so I changed to plastic more, as shown in the plastic 1-hour chart below, the upward trend channel, just near the lower trend line, the support of this position is very strong, so the rebound probability is large, I chose to enter. Do you notice that the trend lines I draw are different from what is written in the books? You can ask me about this, because what I am good at is flexible application. The share price of a mining company that copper was one of my leading indicators last night went up steadily on the tick chart yesterday, rising to a rare 7%, as shown in the chart below. Therefore, the probability of today's copper price trend out of a steady rise is very large, but the large cycle I am bearish, so there is no need to do long orders. But if copper can rise sharply from the current position, then I am really very happy for the grand strategy to prepare to short copper, haha! The rise in copper prices is strong support for short-term base metals, so just like the zinc 1-hour chart I drew yesterday is now just on the upper edge of the rising channel, but I do not recommend short short, this is the grasp of details, copper strength does not do any base metal short. Always pursue high probability, not everything. Silver told you yesterday, I've gone in a little bit.
The domestic chemical daily direction view remains unchanged, or bullish view, how to oscillate the method is not easy to say, but the probability of direct turning the head is very low. Again, crude oil above 80 is not easy to talk about the trend change of chemical industry. Guess the top soda ash and glass retail enough choking, right? This is the method of the main domestic force, the top of the continuous rise is generally cut out by the bears, if you always want to empty the glass and soda ash, you are wrong in your thinking. Change it early, continuous big rise to retail investors dare not empty, the top may really come, today is a day of wild racing, temporarily there is no sign of stopping.
The views of agricultural meal and oil are now being verified to be true of what I said? Reading my article is estimated not to guess the top meal, as for buying more is another thing, I did not buy it, but the logic has to be there, the thinking is clear, when do you find that I have a mess of thinking? The results are not necessarily correct, but the thinking must always be sober.
The two varieties of sugar and rubber have also gradually reduced my orders, and everyone has seen that there is none. As the price rises I will gradually reduce it. This is the ability to regulate, grabbing the band is grabbing the band, don't think about whimsy at all times. The disk surface is changing, and there is no set in stone, so my friends and I can carry out flexible regulation in the intraday, and everyone can also come to ask me, just like this time the PTA opening fell and swept away, but I can change the plastic to pick up back, this is the middle of the regulation, not my original plan and arrangement in advance.
