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The two important indicators of fire statistical analysis reflect the law of fire development and determine fire prevention and control
In the statistical analysis of fire, there are two important indicators, one is the absolute indicator of fire and the other is the relative indicator of fire.
The so-called absolute indicator, also known as the total index, is a comprehensive indicator that reflects the overall scale or level of socio-economic phenomena, and is expressed in the form of statistical absolute numbers with units of measurement. As far as fire is concerned, it mainly includes: the number of fires, fire deaths, fire injuries and fire losses.
The so-called relative indicator, also known as the "statistical relative number". The ratio obtained compared to the values of two related phenomena. Reflects the degree, structure, intensity, universality or proportionality of the phenomenon. It is divided into: structure relative number, intensity relative number, comparative relative number, proportional relative number, dynamic relative number, plan completion relative number, etc. As far as fires are concerned, they mainly include: the average fire incidence rate of 10,000 people, the average number of fire deaths of millions of people, the average mortality rate of 1,000 fires, and the average loss of each fire.
The above indicators, as far as international fire statistics are concerned: At present, seven indicators are mainly used internationally:
(1) The number of fires;
(2) The average fire incidence rate of 10,000 people;
(3) the number of deaths;
(4) the average number of fire deaths of one million people;
(5) Average mortality rate of 1,000 fires;
(6) The amount of loss;
(7) The average amount of loss per fire.
In 1985, the world's ten fire-prone countries were internationally recognized, and the statistics of the ten fire-prone countries in the world were determined based on the above indicators, as shown in Table 1.
It is not difficult to see that the above ten fire-prone countries, today China is only a developing country, the others are developed countries, if only from the absolute indicators, China's fire number, death, loss of the three absolute indicators are the highest, on the contrary, the relative indicators are the lowest.
Fire development law
According to the China Fire Statistics Yearbook, the yearbook is an informative annual report reflecting the fire situation in the country, and was released the following year, which is the most authoritative statistical data issued by the fire protection agency. Its contents include: 1. national fire situation; 2. fire situation of provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government and major and extraordinarily large fire cases; 3. railway, port and shipping, civil aviation fire situation; 4. Appendix, etc.
According to the latest 2021 national fire statistics, the national fire rescue team received a total of 748,000 fires, killed 1,987 people, injured 2,225 people, and direct property losses of 6.75 billion yuan.
According to the statistics released by the relevant departments, the total budget of the 26 provincial (municipal) fire brigades in 2021 is about 58 billion yuan. Among them, the total budget income of revenue and expenditure is generally allocated by the public budget, and the expenditure generally includes the expenditure on housing security and the expenditure on disaster prevention and emergency management. In other words, the fire capital investment is 8.6 times that of the direct property loss of the fire (excluding indirect losses). In terms of total fire losses, the total fire losses in the country in 2021 will be 64.75 billion yuan. In 2021, China's GDP will exceed 110 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year. Although it is not surprising that fire losses relative to GDP growth, it is a negative growth after all, which is worthy of attention and still not optimistic.
As a fire department, it should focus on the study of social fire laws, temporal fire laws, meteorological fire laws, seasonal fire laws, causative fire laws, industrial fire laws, electrical fire laws, dangerous goods fire laws, new material fire laws, vehicles and new energy fire laws, etc.
Fire prevention and control
From the perspective of fire causes, electricity is still the primary cause of fire, from the direct cause of fire, due to electrical caused by 28.4%, and more than one-third of the larger fires are caused by electrical causes, and mostly electrical line failures, accounting for nearly 80% of the total number of electrical fires. In addition to electricity, the proportion of other causes of fire is: 22.6% of fires are accidentally used, 13.7% of residual fires, 10.9% of smoking, 9.9% of spontaneous combustion, 2.7% of production operations, 1% of fires, 0.6% of fires, 10.2% of reasons are unknown. Among them, the fires in production operations such as illegal fire construction, welding and welding and cutting accounted for only 2.7% of the total, but the deaths caused accounted for 6.3% of the total, and the larger fires caused accounted for 10.7% of the total.
Fires in high-rise buildings are on the rise, and the probability of death in crowded places is relatively high. In the whole year, a total of 4057 high-rise building fires and 168 people died, an increase of 22.6% over the previous year, and mainly concentrated in residential places, of which 3438 high-rise residential fires and 155 people died, accounting for 84.7% and 92.3% of high-rise building fires. Schools, hospitals, shopping malls and markets, hotels and restaurants, cultural and entertainment, transportation hubs, large complexes and other crowded places of fire casualties are relatively concentrated, a total of 32,000 fires occurred throughout the year, killing 179 people and injuring 422 people, accounting for only 4.3% of the total, but the dead and injured accounted for 9% and 19% respectively.
Electric bicycles have become a prominent hidden danger affecting the safety of the masses, and new energy formats and other new fire risks have been continuously derived. A total of nearly 18,000 fires caused by electric bicycles and their batteries were reported throughout the year, and 57 people died, because many electric bicycle fires did not cause the surrounding items to burn, most of the parties did not call the police, this data may be quite different from the actual data. At present, the number of electric bicycles is huge, the masses use more, the express delivery group uses it frequently, the violations such as "people and cars in the same house", charging and parking in the aisle lanes are still relatively common, and the fire risk will still affect the fire safety of the masses for a long time. In addition, there were more than 3,000 new energy vehicle fires throughout the year, and the fire risk of new energy vehicles was generally higher than that of traditional vehicles, and the fire safety risks accumulated by the development of emerging formats in the new energy industry were gradually emerging.
It is suggested that the focus of fire safety work of government departments should be placed on electrical fires, fires in high-rise buildings, fires in crowded places, and fire prevention and control of vehicles and new energy.
Table 1 Ten fire-prone countries in the world in 1985
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