Author | Jia Weizhong (Text/Watchmaking)
Source | Car selection network
——Analysis of the 2021 SUV Market Economy Index
Of the passenger car market, SUVs are the healthiest segment. However, since 2017, the domestic SUV market share has declined for four consecutive years. In 2021, the share of Chinese brands will stop falling and rebound to more than 50%.
In 2022, SUV sales are expected to continue to grow, can local SUVs keep last year's stock? And how much share can you grab in the increment?
SUV sales are close to 2018 levels
Although the annual sales of SUVs in 2021 were lower than those of cars, they not only ended the downward trend for 4 consecutive years, but also surpassed 2019 and returned to 2018 levels.
According to the data of the Association, the cumulative sales of SUVs in 2021 were 9.9684 million units, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year, higher than the level of 2019 (9.4569 million units) and only 64,900 units in 2018 (10.0333 million units).
From the perspective of consumption, the consumption capacity and consumption level of SUVs will grow in 2021. Statistical analysis from Beijing Zhengze Dacheng shows that in 2021, the size of the mainland SUV market reached 1,899.370 billion yuan, an increase of 8.38% year-on-year, and the regular SUV market (cumulative) size index was 8886.7 points, up 687.3 points over 2020, marking an increase in consumption power. The average market sales price of SUVs is 190,500 yuan, up 0.5 million yuan from 2020. The regular SUV (cumulative) price index was 106.8 points, up 2.6 points compared to 2020, indicating a slight increase in consumption levels.
The direct reason for the double growth of SUV consumption capacity and consumption level is that the demand for high-end SUVs of more than 200,000 yuan, mid-range SUVs of 100,000-190,000 yuan and low-end SUVs below 90,000 yuan are rising.
Statistics show that in 2021, high-end SUV sales were 3.9709 million units, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year; mid-range SUV sales were 4.2914 million units, an increase of 4.2% year-on-year; low-end SUV sales were 1.706 million units, an increase of 3.9% year-on-year.
From the perspective of product structure, the larger the SUV model, the faster it grows. According to statistics, in 2021, C-class SUV sales were 499,000 units, an increase of 38.6% year-on-year; B-class SUV sales were 2.424 million units, an increase of 14.7% year-on-year; A-class SUV sales were 5.4789 million units, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year; and A0-class SUV sales were 1.566 million units, an increase of -0.3%.
In 2021, the haze of chip shortages hangs over the global automotive industry. In this context, SUVs can end the downward trend for four consecutive years, and the growth rate of large cars is higher than that of small cars, indicating that this segment is the main source of profits for the automotive industry. Therefore, in the case of chip supply is stretched, manufacturers have taken the approach of fully ensuring the supply of SUV products.
The share of local SUVs returned to more than 50%.
In the past five years, foreign brands have increased their SUV investment efforts, and the market share of Chinese brands' SUVs has declined for four consecutive years. However, last year, the share of local SUVs actually stopped falling and rebounded to more than 50%.
According to statistics, from 2017 to 2020, the market share of Chinese brand SUVs fell from 60.0% to 49.9%. In 2021, a total of 5.3363 million Chinese brand SUVs were sold, an increase of 13.3% year-on-year, and the market share reached 53.5%, and the share increased by 3.6 percentage points compared with 2020, rebounding to the level of 2019. At the same time, German and Japanese SUV sales were 1.6243 million units and 1.8053 million units, respectively, an increase of -7.4% and -4.1% year-on-year, and the share fell by 2.3 and 1.9 percentage points, respectively.
From the perspective of market segmentation, the market share of local SUVs rose sharply last year, mainly because in the face of global chip supply cuts, Chinese brand car companies took active measures to ensure chip supply, so they rapidly expanded in the mid-end market of 110,000-210,000 yuan.
Statistics show that the cumulative sales of mid-range local SUVs in 2021 were 3.199 million units, which not only increased by 13.0% compared with 2020, but also surpassed the levels of 2019 (2.8569 million units) and 2018 (3.0691 million units), and narrowed the gap with 2017 (3.271 million units) to 72,000 units.
It is worth mentioning that in 2018, the auto market began to intensify the downward cycle of eliminations. In the past four years, the internal structure of local car companies has undergone major changes, a number of low-end manufacturing companies have fallen into difficulties, and excellent Chinese brands have grown rapidly. Therefore, the overall market share of local SUVs has rebounded to the pre-epidemic level, and the sales growth of mid-range local SUVs has exceeded the level of 2018, and its gold content has been greatly improved compared with that year.
The share of local SUVs is at risk of contraction
Objectively speaking, the sales volume of local SUVs in 2021 has increased significantly, and the rapid recovery of share is closely related to the lack of supply of some foreign brands. In 2022, with the gradual solution of chip supply problems, foreign brands are bound to increase the investment of SUV products.
From the perspective of the passenger car market, last year faced with a shortage of chips, the intention of German and Japanese car companies to protect SUV is very obvious. A typical example is that in the mid-market, the share of German and Japanese cars in 2021 fell by 11.3 percentage points, while the share of German and Japanese SUVs fell by only 3.6 percentage points. In other words, compared with the already stable position of the car market, whether from the perspective of economic benefits or from the perspective of market position, German and Japanese car companies pay more attention to the SUV market. Therefore, as chips return to normal supply this year, the competition between head foreign brands and Chinese brands in the mid-range SUV field will be unprecedentedly fierce, and the share of local mid-range SUVs will face the risk of contraction.
At the same time, the competition between foreign brands and Chinese brands has reached the low-end SUV field, and the basic market of Chinese brand SUVs is threatened. According to statistics, the cumulative sales of German low-end SUVs in 2021 were 83,000 units, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year, and the market share of 4.9% was the same as that of 2020, which shows that German SUVs have stood firm in the low-end market. In the future, if there are more German and Japanese low-end SUVs to explore, in the shrinking low-end market, the probability of Chinese brand low-end SUVs continuing to shrink is very large.
Overall, in 2021, the market share of 44.5% of Chinese brand passenger cars is close to the best level in history, the share of Chinese brand cars is more than 30%, and the share of local SUVs has rebounded to more than 50%, and the fundamental reason is that the supply of some foreign brand products is insufficient due to the lack of core.
In 2022, foreign brand passenger cars to increase product supply, price downward efforts is a high probability event, last year's suppressed part of the demand will be gradually released this year, SUV sales are expected to maintain growth. While maintaining more than 50% of the market share, local SUV manufacturers must pay more hard work than in 2021 if they want to grab more share in the increment.
(Image source: Internet)