According to the latest data from the First Commercial Vehicle Network, the mainland heavy-duty truck market sold about 46,000 vehicles in April this year, down 40% from 77,000 units in March this year, down 76% from 193,000 units in the same period last year, and a net decrease of nearly 150,000 vehicles. 46,000 units, the lowest point in April sales since 2007, up from 33,500 units in 2006. April was also the twelfth consecutive month of decline in the heavy-duty truck market since May last year.
After April, the heavy-duty truck market from January to April 2022 achieved cumulative sales of 278,000 units, down 62% from 725,000 units in the same period last year, a decrease of 447,000 units!
Monthly trend chart of heavy-duty truck sales in the mainland heavy-duty truck market from 2015 to 2022 (unit: units)
According to the previous analysis of the First Commercial Vehicle Network, the reasons for the sharp year-on-year decline in the heavy-duty truck market in April mainly include the epidemic, low investment and consumption, the obstruction of the resumption of work and production, and the high sales volume in the same period. The first is the impact of the epidemic.
Secondly, since March, due to the frequent occurrence of the domestic epidemic, consumption, especially contact cluster consumption and some investment projects have been greatly affected, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in March have changed from growth to decline year-on-year (the total retail sales of social consumer goods in March fell by 3.5% year-on-year and 1.93% month-on-month), the growth rate of fixed asset investment fell significantly compared with the previous 2 months, and consumption and investment have fluctuated greatly. Consumption, investment downturn, further reduction in the supply of goods, resulting in many logistics companies and logistics people are out of stock, the expectation of the future is very sluggish, coupled with the situation that has always existed in the car more goods, who dares to buy a car, change the car?
Third, the base of the same period last year was too high, resulting in the year-on-year data in April being "ugly". According to the official data of the China Automobile Association, the sales of heavy-duty trucks in April 2021 reached 193,000 units, which is the second highest point in the history of monthly sales of heavy-duty trucks in the country and even in the world. With such a high sales base for the same period, it is impossible for the heavy-duty truck market to fall sharply in April this year.
Fourth, in April, there were still many heavy-duty truck enterprises and related parts and components enterprises that were restricted by local epidemic prevention and control policies, and production capacity declined to varying degrees for a period of time. The decline in the "supply side" of enterprises means that the production of heavy truck manufacturers cannot fully meet the needs of dealers and users, which will also lead to a decline in market sales in the month.
There is only 1 enterprise left to break 10,000 Enterprises Liberation resumption of work is worth looking forward to
After April, the monthly competitive landscape of the heavy-duty truck industry has undergone new changes. According to the data of the first commercial vehicle network, in April this year, in the increasingly fierce competition of the "qualifying race", there was only one "breaking 10,000" enterprises (there were 4 in March); the companies that achieved market share increases from January to April were mainly Heavy Duty Truck (000951.SZ), Dongfeng (600006.SH), Foton (600166.SH), Dayun and XCMG.
January-April 2022 heavy-duty truck market sales ranking (unit: unit)
Specifically, in the first group of heavy trucks composed of Jiefang, Heavy Duty Truck and Dongfeng, FAW Jiefang sold about 05,000 heavy trucks in April this year, and its production and sales in March and April were greatly affected by the epidemic in Changchun, so there was a short-term decline; from January to April 2022, the cumulative sales of Jiefang heavy trucks were 59,700 units, with a market share of 21.5%. It is worth mentioning that on May 2, as most of THE employees of FAW Jiefang began to commute "point-to-point", the Changchun base started construction in its entirety and achieved a comprehensive resumption of production. The resumption of work and production in Jiefang is an important event in the industry, and it has also laid a solid foundation for its sales and market share to return to the upward channel.
Sinotruk sold about 11,500 heavy-duty trucks in April this year, the only company that broke the sales volume of the month; its cumulative sales from January to April were 66,500 units, and its market share rose to 23.9%, and its share rose by 6 percentage points year-on-year. Dongfeng Company (including Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle, Dongfeng Liuqi Chenglong Automobile, etc.) sold 09,500 heavy-duty trucks in April this year, ranking second in the industry; from January to April this year, Dongfeng Company sold 54,300 heavy-duty trucks, with a market share of 19.6%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, and its cumulative sales still ranked third in the industry. Shaanxi Automobile Group sold about 07,000 heavy-duty trucks in April, and has sold a total of 33,000 heavy-duty trucks year-to-date, with a market share of 11.9%. Foton Motor delivered a "report card" of about 0.6 million units in April, and its cumulative sales from January to April were 27,900 units, and its market share was about 10%, up 1.8 percentage points.
SAIC Hongyan sold about 1,600 heavy-duty trucks in April this year, and sold a total of 0.92 million heavy-duty trucks from January to April 2022, with a market share of 3.3%, continuing to maintain the top six in the industry. Dayun Heavy Truck sold 1,590 vehicles in April, and a total of 7,781 units were sold from January to April, with a market share of 2.8%, and its share increased by 1.4 percentage points. JacC Motor sold about 900 heavy-duty trucks in April, and from January to April, it sold a total of 0.59 million vehicles, with a market share of 2.1%. XCMG Heavy Truck sold 1,032 vehicles in April this year, ranking eighth in the industry; from January to April, the cumulative sales of 4,390 vehicles, the market share of 1.6%, maintaining the ninth in the heavy-duty truck industry, the share increased by 0.3 percentage points.
The heavy-duty truck market "fell to the bottom" in April, will there be a sharp rebound in sales in May and June?
According to experts, this round of the epidemic is expected to end in mid-to-late May, thus creating conditions for the recovery of the economy in June; on the other hand, in order to stabilize growth and boost the economy, more favorable policies are being introduced. With the gradual implementation of various policies to stimulate consumption and investment, the transportation industry is expected to usher in a wave of recovery in June, and the heavy-duty truck market located in the downstream industrial chain will also benefit. Some users who originally planned to change cars but held a wait-and-see attitude due to the epidemic will convert this "wait-and-see" into actual purchases after the epidemic.
Therefore, from the current trend, April is likely to be the "darkest hour" before the dawn, with a large increase in May and a more obvious inflection point in June.