The policy environment continues to improve
After the "double carbon" strategic goal of the mainland was proposed, the strategic significance of developing the hydrogen energy industry was elevated to a new strategic height.
In October 2021, hydrogen energy was mentioned many times in the "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on The Complete, Accurate and Comprehensive Implementation of the New Development Concept to Do a Good Job in Carbon Neutrality" and the "Carbon Peak Action Plan before 2030", which involved the development of the whole industrial chain of hydrogen energy, the construction of hydrogen refueling stations, and the research and development and application of key technologies.
Hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicles have been successively proposed in the national "14th Five-Year Plan", new energy vehicle industry planning, green and low-carbon recycling industry development, energy policy, new energy storage and other national industrial guidance policies, which are considered to be an important direction for the development of strategic emerging industries and an important path to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of the energy system.
The national hydrogen energy industry special plan that has attracted much attention will also be released, and the national hydrogen energy policy orientation has gradually pointed out the direction for industrial development and effectively promoted the healthy and orderly development of the industry.
At the same time, the domestic release of hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle industry policy of local governments further increased, according to the incomplete statistics of the china automobile data hydrogen energy research team, in 2021, a total of more than 40 thematic policies were issued in various parts of the country, covering industrial planning, implementation opinions, action plans, demonstration applications and hydrogen refueling station management, etc., reflecting that local governments are focusing on solving problems and enterprise demands in local industrial development and demonstration applications, and creating a good policy environment conducive to industrial development.
The demonstration effect of large-scale events will attract attention
Participating in major international events and providing transportation services has always been the tradition of fuel cell vehicle demonstration operation.
In February 2022, in the process of holding the Beijing Winter Olympic Games, in order to practice the green Olympic Games and help "carbon neutrality", nearly 1,000 fuel cell vehicles participated in the demonstration operation to provide transportation support services for this major international sports event, this Winter Olympics is the first large-scale use of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China, and it is also the world's largest fuel cell vehicle demonstration operation, in the strict reliability requirements and low temperature operation environment, fuel cell vehicles have withstood the test. It fully demonstrates the maturity and application potential of hydrogen energy technology, which is of great demonstration significance for the construction of a low-carbon transportation system.
Under the "double carbon" goal, taking the Green Winter Olympics as an opportunity, mainland fuel cell vehicles will enter a new period of development opportunities.
A complete industrial chain that is independent and controllable has been basically completed
Domestic enterprises actively carry out hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle industry chain layout, at present, one-third of the domestic central enterprises, more than 118 listed companies involved in the hydrogen energy industry, the industrial chain of each link of the enterprise a total of more than 2,000, and in the field of key components of fuel cell vehicles formed a number of leading enterprises, fuel cell technology rapid progress, fuel cell system high power, integration trend is obvious, stacks, air compressors, hydrogen circulation systems, vehicle hydrogen storage system technology level greatly improved, domestic membrane electrodes, Bipolar plates have achieved large-scale operation, and core materials such as proton exchange membranes and catalysts have been loaded into vehicles and have the ability to supply in batches.
The domestic independent and controllable hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle industry chain has basically taken shape, providing an important guarantee for large-scale and commercial demonstration applications.
The power system is developing in the direction of high power
Hydrogen energy heavy trucks have obvious advantages such as large load, long endurance, and fast hydrogenation, and are considered to be an important alternative to carbon reduction in the field of electrification in the field of heavy trucks.
After the demonstration and application policy of fuel cell vehicles was clarified, it became a consensus to take commercial vehicles as the key development direction, and the layout process of domestic mainstream commercial vehicle enterprises for medium and heavy fuel cell special vehicles was gradually accelerated, fawc Jiefang, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle, China National Heavy Duty Truck, Shaanxi Automobile Heavy Truck, Foton Automobile, SAIC Hongyan, Sany Heavy Industry, Feichi Automobile, Jiangling Heavy Duty Truck, XCMG Group, Dayun Automobile, Hanma Technology, Geely Commercial Vehicle and other enterprises accelerated investment, aiming at market segments and specific scenarios to actively carry out product development and product commercialization. It forms a differentiated competition with the replacement heavy truck, focuses on promoting the scenarios where the pure electric heavy truck is difficult to apply and has a hydrogen source, takes the lead in application in specific scenarios, and explores ways to reduce the cost of TCO throughout the life cycle.
According to the development trend of commercial vehicle specialization, as well as the demand for large load, long endurance and dedicated operation, it is expected that the rated power demand for fuel cell power systems for heavy-duty special vehicles will be further improved in 2022, and it will march to 200 kW.
Rapid release of market demand
2022 is the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shanghai, Guangdong, Hebei, Henan five fuel cell vehicle demonstration group cities to start the implementation of the key year, will usher in the first year of assessment, in the strength of the points reward policy, before the high and low, so the participating cities will vigorously carry out demonstration applications in the early stage of the demonstration cycle, in accordance with the implementation of the established target rhythm of vehicle launch, the focus of demonstration applications or commercial vehicles, bus field promotion space is limited, special vehicles are important potential markets, Therefore, the bidding and procurement demand for fuel cell special vehicles will be intensively released, and the sales volume of the market terminal will show a rapid growth trend.
Specific to the terminal application scenarios, with the application of high-power fuel cell systems, more transportation and operation scenarios can be met, and the application scenarios characterized by heavy duty steel logistics, mine logistics, park logistics, short-pour transportation, slag transportation, cold chain transportation, municipal sanitation and other "diesel to electricity" application scenarios will become hot areas.
In the next few years, five fuel cell vehicle city cluster demonstration, Shandong "hydrogen into ten thousand homes" and "Chengdu-Chongqing hydrogen corridor" and other key demonstration areas of the promotion and application process of nearly 50,000 fuel cell vehicles put into operation, diversified scene demand, the need for enterprises to provide different model types, power levels, tonnage structure of multi-dimensional fuel cell special vehicle product supply matrix, to meet the specific scene of customer demand in the terminal segmentation field, semi-trailer tractor, port tractor, slag transport vehicle, cold chain transport vehicle, municipal sanitation vehicle, Special models such as mining dump trucks and concrete mixer trucks have ushered in important development opportunities.
The construction process of hydrogen refueling stations has been significantly accelerated
In order to ensure the demonstration application of fuel cell vehicles, the construction process of hydrogen refueling stations in various places has been significantly accelerated, and by the end of 2021, according to the information released by the China Hydrogen Energy Alliance, the mainland has built more than 240 hydrogen refueling stations, an increase of 112 over the previous year.
The problem of insufficient number of hydrogen refueling stations is being alleviated, and the hydrogen energy industry planning and other guiding policies in many provinces and cities in China have taken the hydrogen refueling station construction and operation policy as an important content, and the approval, construction, operation and safety management policies of hydrogen refueling stations in the leading cities have provided useful reference and reference for other places to formulate hydrogen refueling station management policies and crack institutional and policy constraints.
With the implementation of fuel cell vehicle demonstration application policies, the construction of hydrogen refueling stations around the country generally maintains a moderately advanced layout situation, large energy companies have been involved in the construction of hydrogenation infrastructure networks, hydrogenation, refueling, charging and other joint construction stations will become the main construction mode, station construction and operation subsidies have enhanced the enthusiasm of business entities, it is expected that by 2025, the domestic construction of hydrogen refueling stations will reach more than 1,000, hydrogen fuel cell special vehicle hydrogenation demand will be effectively met.
Reduced acquisition and use costs
All along, fuel cell core materials and key components rely on imports, the market size is small, the cost of hydrogen energy supply is high, resulting in high cost of purchase and use of fuel vehicles, heavy truck-based special vehicle system power demand is high, hydrogen consumption is large, high price sensitivity, the cost reduction demand is more urgent, cost reduction is of great practical significance for improving the enthusiasm of terminal applications.
Since 2020, with the localization rate of fuel cell core materials and key components of the system increasing year by year, driving the rapid cost reduction of the fuel cell industry chain, the price of stack products has been continuously lowered, mainstream manufacturers have dropped to less than 2000 yuan / kW, it is expected that the cost of fuel cell systems will be reduced by about 20% in 2022, and the cost reduction brought about by the scale effect of demonstration applications will become more and more obvious.
At the same time, after the deep decarbonization potential of hydrogen energy, chemical, steel and other industries is concerned, the supply will show an upward trend, and the cost of supply will still have a large room for decline.
In addition, the increase in the localization rate of hydrogen refueling station equipment can also drive the price of hydrogen filling at the station end to decline. According to the national fuel cell vehicle demonstration application policy goals, by the end of the four-year demonstration period, the station-end hydrogen refueling price is less than 35 yuan / kg. In the short term, the promotion of fuel cell technology in the field of special vehicles still needs to highlight the benefits of carbon reduction and environmental protection, by 2025, it is expected that the purchase cost of fuel cell vehicles will be comparable to pure electric vehicles, and by 2030, the full life cycle cost of fuel cell commercial vehicles will be comparable to that of traditional fuel vehicles, and has economic advantages.
2022 Market Outlook
Driven by the "double carbon" goal, driven by demonstration application policies, active layout of upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain, continuous improvement of the industrial chain supply chain, continuous maturity of the technical level of key components, substantial release of demand for diversified application scenarios, acceleration of the construction process of hydrogenation infrastructure, and downward exploration of use costs year by year, the mainland fuel cell vehicle market will grow rapidly and enter a period of large-scale demonstration application growth.
2022 is the concentrated release of the driving factors of the growth of the fuel cell vehicle market in the mainland, and it is expected that the annual sales of fuel cell vehicles will exceed 10,000, of which the sales of fuel cell special vehicles will reach more than 5,000.
Source | Special purpose vehicle SPV
Disclaimer | We remain neutral in the views stated in the article, for reference only, exchange and learning, such as copyright and other issues, please contact to delete, thank you!