Overview of hydrogen energy application links and market space
Under the double carbon target, domestic hydrogen energy has huge room for development, and hydrogen energy will be mainly used in transportation, industry, electric power, construction and other fields. Under the guidance of the goal of "carbon peak carbon neutrality" (3060), hydrogen energy, as the cleanest carbon-free secondary energy source, has ushered in huge development opportunities in the world with the advantages of rich sources, flexible and efficient, and a wide range of application scenarios.
Hydrogen energy as the most effective means of decarbonization, raw materials and fuel properties are available, is expected to play a role in transportation (fuel cell vehicles, etc.), industrial fields (metallurgy, chemical industry, etc.), construction (heating and heating, etc.), electricity (grid balance, etc.) and other four major areas. According to the Calculation of the China Hydrogen Energy Alliance, by 2060, the annual demand for hydrogen in the mainland will reach about 130 million tons (about 25 million tons in 2019), which can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 1.8 billion tons, accounting for about 19% of the total domestic carbon dioxide emissions, of which about 77.94 million tons of hydrogen is used in the industrial field, accounting for about 60% of the total hydrogen consumption, 40.51 million tons of hydrogen in the transportation field, accounting for about 31%, hydrogen for power generation and grid balance is 6 million tons, accounting for about 5%, and hydrogen is 5.85 million tons in the construction field. The share is about 4%.
Fuel cells will be the starting point for the development of the hydrogen energy industry, and the hydrogen energy industry is expected to be a market of more than 10 trillion yuan in 2050. Fuel cell installation is conducive to the realization of hydrogen energy mobility, lightweight and large-scale popularization, can be widely used in transportation, industry, construction, military and other scenarios, so fuel cells have become the gripper of the development of hydrogen energy industry. As of 2019, hydrogen energy accounts for only 2.7% of the mainland's energy system, and it is expected to increase to 10% by 2050 and 20% in 2060, and the hydrogen demand will also reach 60 million tons and 130 million tons, respectively. In 2050, the construction of hydrogen refueling stations will reach 10,000 units, the output of fuel cell vehicles will reach 5 million units / year, the stationary power supply will reach 20,000 units, the production capacity of fuel cell systems will reach 5.5 million sets / year, and the industrial scale will reach 12 trillion yuan.
Fuel cell vehicles have unique advantages and are expected to usher in explosive growth
Composition of the fuel cell engine system. Unlike lithium batteries, which are installed as energy storage, fuel cells are non-combustion energy conversion devices that convert the chemical energy of hydrogen at the anode and oxygen (or air) from the cathode into electrical energy through an electrochemical reaction. The core component of the fuel cell is a stack, the main membrane electrode assembly and bipolar plate composition, wherein the membrane electrode assembly includes a proton exchange membrane, a catalyst and a gas diffusion layer, for the reaction site, the bipolar plate is a metal or graphite sheet with a runner, its main role is to transport reaction gas to the membrane electrode assembly through the flow field, while collecting and conducting electricity and discharging the water and heat generated by the reaction. Fuel cell stacks are equipped with hydrogen supply systems, oxygen supply systems, engine controllers, engine accessories, etc., which constitute fuel cell engines, supplemented by DC voltage converters (DC/DC), on-board hydrogen storage systems, etc., which constitute fuel cell engine systems, and the system provides the core power source for fuel cell vehicles.
The specific working process of the fuel cell is as follows: (1) the reaction gas diffuses in the gas diffusion layer; (2) the reaction gas is dissociated after being adsorbed by the catalyst in the catalytic layer; (3) the hydrogen ion produced by the anode reaction passes through the proton exchange membrane to reach the cathode to react with oxygen to produce water, while the electron reaches the cathode through the outer circuit to produce electricity.
Fuel cell vehicles have a strong competitive advantage over electric vehicles in terms of low temperature performance, filling time, and cruising range. With the increasing pressure on carbon emissions, the transportation sector mainly replaces traditional fuel engines with new energy products such as lithium batteries and fuel cells to alleviate the environmental pressure caused by carbon emissions. Compared with lithium battery vehicles, fuel electric vehicles have very strong competitive advantages in terms of low temperature performance (-30 °C low temperature self-starting), filling time (15 minutes for commercial vehicles) and cruising range (>500km), which determines that fuel cell vehicles have a very competitive advantage in commercial vehicles and other fields.
Looking at the world, in recent years, China's fuel cell vehicle industry has lagged behind and developed rapidly. The transportation field represented by fuel cell vehicles is a breakthrough and a major market for the initial application of hydrogen energy. According to the Statistics of the International Energy Agency (IEA), as of the end of the first half of 2021, there were a total of 43,000 fuel cell vehicles in the world, of which South Korea, the United States, China, Japan, Europe, and other regions had 14,600, 11,100, 0.84 million, 0.56 million, 0.31 million and 0.03 million, accounting for 34%, 26%, 20%, 13%, 7% and 1% respectively. It can be observed that Since 2017, China's fuel cell industry has lagged behind, from 50 at the end of 2017 to 8440 at the end of the first half of 2021, an increase of 168 times in less than four years. In 2020, the global stock of fuel battery vehicles totaled 34,800, of which 26,000 were passenger cars, 0.57 million buses, and 0.32 million commercial vehicles, accounting for 75%/16%/9% respectively.
In the new policy of "substituting awards for compensation" in China, each urban agglomeration can receive up to 1.87 billion yuan in subsidies. In September 2020, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Development and Reform Commission, the Energy Bureau and other five ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Notice on Carrying out fuel cell vehicle demonstration applications", which adjusted the purchase subsidy policy for fuel cell vehicles to the fuel cell vehicle demonstration application support policy, and rewarded the industrialization and demonstration application of key core technologies of fuel cell vehicles in eligible urban agglomerations. The demonstration period is tentatively set at four years, during which the "award will be substituted for compensation" and rewards will be given to the shortlisted urban agglomerations according to their goals. According to the document, each demonstration city cluster can receive up to 1.7 billion subsidies (an additional +10% for over-completion), and the incentive funds are coordinated by local governments and enterprises for the industrialization of key core technologies of fuel battery vehicles, talent introduction and team building, as well as the demonstration and application of new models and new technologies.
Through the comparison between the 2018 national subsidy policy and the 2020 "award in lieu of compensation" policy, it is found that the new policy will help accelerate the localization process of the core components of fuel cells. The new policy requires significant improvements in the main performance indicators, and at the same time, the focus of subsidies (from downstream OEMs to upstream core parts and key materials enterprises), the direct access to subsidies (from OEMs to leading cities), and direct beneficiaries (not only OEMs, local policies can also directly subsidize to parts and materials enterprises) have changed greatly, and the new policy will help accelerate the localization process of the core components of fuel cells.
The five major demonstration city clusters have taken the lead in landing, and fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen refueling stations are expected to usher in large-scale promotion during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. By the end of 2021, the first batch of fuel cell vehicles five urban agglomerations listed all issued, namely the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei demonstration city cluster (Led by Beijing), the Shanghai Demonstration City Cluster (led by Shanghai), the Guangdong Demonstration City Cluster (led by Foshan), the Demonstration City Cluster of Henan Province (led by Zhengzhou) and the Demonstration City Cluster of Hebei Province (led by Zhangjiakou), the industry has entered the implementation stage, according to the disclosed statistics, the vehicle promotion targets of the five major urban agglomerations during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period are expected to be 1.63, 1.65, 1.56, respectively. 2.45 and 17,900 units, and the promotion targets of hydrogen refueling stations are 136, 140, 120, 172 and 174 seats, respectively.
In 2025, the number of domestic fuel cell vehicles is expected to reach 100,000, 1,000 hydrogen refueling stations, and 1 million in 2030, and 5,000 hydrogen refueling stations. According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the national fuel cell vehicle production in 2021 is 1790 units, and the sales volume is 1596 vehicles, an increase of 49% and 35% respectively, combined with IEA data, the number of domestic fuel cell vehicles at the end of 2021 is about 10,000. According to the statistics of the Orange Club, by the end of 2021, the mainland has built 191 hydrogen refueling stations (excluding demolition), of which 174 have been operated. According to the guidance of the First Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the 2020 "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" organized and compiled by the Society of Automotive Engineers of China pointed out that the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in mainland China will reach about 100,000 in 2025, 1,000 hydrogen refueling stations, and about 1 million fuel cell vehicles and 5,000 hydrogen refueling stations in 2030. (Source: Future Think Tank)
Analysis of the main industrial links and technical routes of fuel cell vehicles
At present, the most mainstream fuel cell is proton exchange membrane fuel cell technology. Fuel cell technology route mainly includes alkaline fuel cells (AFC), phosphoric acid fuel cells (PAFC), solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC), molten carbonate fuel cells (MCFC) and proton exchange membrane fuel batteries (PEMFC) and other categories, from the perspective of commercial use, the latter three are the most important technical routes. Among them, proton exchange membrane fuel cell technology due to its low working temperature, fast start-up, higher than the power advantages, very suitable for transportation and fixed power supply field, has become the most mainstream technology at home and abroad at this stage (the following if not specifically referred to, fuel cell refers to the proton exchange membrane PEMFC technical route). Solid oxide fuel cells have the advantages of wide fuel adaptability, high energy conversion efficiency, all-solid state, modular assembly, zero pollution, etc., and are mainly used in large centralized power supply, medium-sized power distribution and small household cogeneration and other fields.
Stack: The core components of the fuel cell engine mainly include the stack and its core components, auxiliary systems, etc. The stack is the heart of the fuel cell engine system and the power source of the fuel cell engine, which is mainly composed of membrane electrodes and bipolar plates stacked. At present, domestic fuel cell stacks are mainly divided into two types: (1) independent research and development types, represented by Xinyuan Power, Shenli Technology and Tomorrow Hydrogen Energy. (2) The introduction of foreign mature stack technology, represented by Guangdong Guohong and Nantong Baiying. Overall, the domestic stack industry has developed well, and the current rated power of fuel cells released by domestic mainstream manufacturers can exceed 100kW.
Membrane electrode (MEA): CCM is the mainstream technology of membrane electrode, and ordered membrane electrode may be the future development direction. Membrane electrode is the place where the electrochemical reaction of PEMFC occurs, as a medium for the transmission of electrons and protons, providing a place for close contact for electrochemical reactions, which is composed of a proton exchange membrane, a catalyst and a gas diffusion layer, etc., and is the core component of the fuel cell stack. Membrane electrode after three generations of technological development, the first generation of technology for gas diffusion electrode (GDE), the catalytic layer is prepared to the diffusion layer, with the preparation process is simple, mature technology advantages, but there is a low catalyst utilization and poor adhesion between the catalytic layer and the proton membrane, so it has been basically eliminated.
The second generation of technology is catalyst coating (CCM), the catalytic layer is changed to prepare to the proton exchange membrane, compared with GDE, improve the catalyst utilization and durability, reduce the transmission resistance between the catalytic layer and the proton exchange membrane, thereby improving the performance of the membrane electrode, becoming the mainstream technology of the current membrane electrode production, but there is a lack of unstable structure of the catalytic layer during the reaction process and limited life. The third generation of sequential membrane electrodes, the use of ordered structure, can reduce the amount of catalyst and precious metals, improve the performance of the catalyst layer, the technology is currently in the research and development stage, the current technology is represented by the United States 3M company as the international material giant master.
Proton exchange membrane (PEM): Perfluorinated proton exchange membrane is the current mainstream, and high temperature membrane, alkaline membrane and composite membrane have become the future development direction. The proton exchange membrane effect is to let only the anode lose electrons hydrogen ions (protons) pass through to the cathode during the reaction, but prevent electrons, hydrogen molecules, water molecules, etc. from passing, similar to the role of the ticket inspector. At present, perfluorosulfonic acid membrane has the advantages of high mechanical strength, strong chemical stability, high conductivity under high humidity, small proton conductivity resistance, etc., which is the mainstream of proton exchange membrane material, but the high production cost and the presence of high temperature prone to chemical degradation, resulting in poor proton conductivity. Improve the high temperature resistance of the proton exchange membrane and reduce the production cost has become its research and development direction, the composite film can be processed to change the properties of the perfluorinated sulfonic acid membrane, thereby improving its high temperature resistance; alkaline membrane can make the working environment of the fuel cell system alkaline, so that the choice of catalyst is wider, so that other materials can be used to replace expensive platinum. High temperature film, alkaline film and composite film are the future development direction.
Proton exchange membrane domestic and foreign market conditions: The Nafion membrane of DuPont in the United States is currently in a dominant position, and domestic products have just started. In the international market, DuPont's Nafion membrane occupies the largest share in the field of perfluorosulfonic acid membranes in the international market, and its membrane price is generally above 500 US dollars / m2, while the domestic assembly proton exchange membrane is mainly from DuPont. In addition, ballard Canada's BAM membrane has a laboratory life of more than 4500h and is only 1/10 the price of Nafion membranes. In terms of domestic market, the mainland has achieved localization of perfluorinated proton exchange membranes, but there is still a gap between quality and durability and foreign countries, Dongyue has built a 500 tons / year production line, and its latest product DF260 film thickness can reach 15 microns, and the durability is greater than 600h under OCV conditions. In addition, the composite proton film produced by Wuhan Institute of Science and Technology New Energy has a thickness of 16.8 microns, and has provided test samples to several foreign research units.
Catalyst (CL): Reducing Pt content is the future trend. The catalyst in the membrane electrode assembly, usually a small particle uniformly coated on the proton exchange membrane, these tiny particles are usually carbon carriers and platinum particles, hydrogen can be ionized into hydrogen ions, so that hydrogen ions can react with oxygen in the air through the proton exchange membrane. The catalyst mainly acts on two reactions, the anode hydroxide reaction (H2 - >2H++ H2O, HOR) and the cathode oxygen reaction (1/2O2+2H+ - >H2O, ORR), the anode HOR reaction is a rapid kinetic process, and the cathode ORR is a slow kinetic process.
At present, the precious metal Pt and its alloys are still the best catalyst for HOR and ORR, Pt/C is the most commonly used commercial catalyst, but the price of Pt is more expensive, coupled with the scarcity of Pt and the extremely low supply, may cause certain obstacles to the development of fuel cells, so reducing the platinum content in catalysts has become the main development direction of catalysts. In terms of the international market, 3M company, Gore company and E-TEK company in the United States, JohnsonMatthery company in the United Kingdom, BASF company in Germany, Tanaka (Tanaka precious metals) company and TKK company in Japan, and Umicore company in Belgium are the main producers, of which the Pt content of the catalyst of Honda FCV Clarity fuel cell vehicles has reached 0.12g/kW, and Toyota Mirai fuel cell gas The Pt content of the car catalyst is 0.175g/kW. In terms of the domestic market, mainland catalysts have not yet achieved commercial production, and Guiyan Platinum and Wuhan Himalaya are leading enterprises.
Gas Diffusion Layer (GDL): Global GDL has not yet formed a large-scale mass production, carbon paper is currently the mainstream product. The gas diffusion layer (GDL) plays an important role in supporting the catalytic layer, collecting current, conducting gas and discharging reaction product water in proton exchange membrane fuel cells, usually composed of carbon fiber paper, carbon fiber woven fabric, nonwoven fabric and carbon black paper. Due to the light weight, flat surface, corrosion resistance, uniform porosity and high strength of carbon paper, the thickness can be adjusted according to the requirements of use, which is more suitable for the use of durable fuel cells. At present, the global GDL manufacturers are few, subject to low market demand, and the production cost is high, it is difficult to form a large-scale production, Japan Toray Co., Ltd. began to get involved in the production of carbon fiber products in 1971, for the world's largest supplier of carbon fiber products, other well-known manufacturers also include the United States Avcard, Germany SGL (SGL) and so on. Only a few enterprises in China, such as Jiangsu Tianniao, General Hydrogen Energy, and Shanghai HeSen, have been involved in the research and development of gas diffusion layers, and most of them are in the state of trial production of small batches.
Bipolar plate: Graphite bipolar plate has achieved domestic scale, and metal bipolar plate needs to be mass-produced. The core structural parts of the combustion battery stack, usually graphite or metal sheets with gas flow channels on both sides, are placed on both sides of the membrane electrode, playing a role in supporting the mechanical structure, evenly distributing gas, drainage, heat conduction, and conducting electricity, and its performance will directly affect the volume, output power and life of the stack. In general, bipolar plates are divided into graphite bipolar plates, metal bipolar plates and composite bipolar plates, graphite is the earliest used in proton exchange membrane fuel cell bipolar plate materials, with high corrosion resistance, high durability, but the production cycle is long, poor pressure resistance, difficulty in processing, high production costs, suitable for the production of special vehicles and buses, representative enterprises include Ballard (Ballard), Hydrogenics, etc., the country has achieved domestic scale. Among them, the thin-based metal bipolar plate has excellent mechanical properties and electrical and thermal conductivity, which can make the stack have a higher volume specific power density, and the cost is low and can be mass-produced, and the metal bipolar plate is generally used in passenger cars. However, the surface of the metal bipolar plate is easily corroded to produce iron ions, which will reduce the performance of the stack, and the surface may form a metal passivation film, increase the contact resistance, and have a low service life. Metal bipolar plates are mainly used in the field of passenger cars, and the representative enterprises are Toyota Motor, etc., and mass production has not yet been realized in China.
The domestic research direction of bipolar plate: mainly focuses on improving the corrosion resistance of metal bipolar plate and reducing the production cost of composite bipolar plate. At present, graphite bipolar plates have been localized, and metal bipolar plates have been produced in small batches, but durability and reliability still need to be broken through follow-up research. Metal bipolar plate as the most likely alternative to graphite bipolar plate in the future, has been subject to its corrosion characteristics, the current metal bipolar plate is coated on the surface of the corrosion resistant coating materials, such as precious metals, metal compounds, carbon films, etc., to increase the corrosion resistance of metal bipolar plate. Composite bipolar plate using resin mixed graphite powder and reinforced fibers and other materials to form a precast material, with the double advantages of graphite plate and metal plate, light quality and corrosion resistance, but the processing is more complex, the production cost is higher, reducing its production cost makes it more suitable for mass production, becoming one of the future bipolar plate development directions.
Air compressor of auxiliary system: Centrifugal air compressor has good comprehensive performance and is the future development direction. The air compressor, referred to as the air compressor, is mainly composed of a motor and an expander, which pressurizes the incoming air and improves the power density and efficiency of the fuel cell. Air compressor as an important component of the auxiliary system power consumption accounted for 80% of the auxiliary system, about 20% - 30% of the fuel cell output power (source of Polaris hydrogen network), mainly divided into scroll air compressor, twin screw air compressor and centrifugal air compressor three kinds, of which the friction generated between the scroll air compressor and the double screw air compressor sheet will cause a large noise, and can not recover the exhaust energy, centrifugal air compressor has better comprehensive performance, is currently the most ideal fuel cell special air compressor type.
Hydrogen circulation pump for auxiliary systems: the recirculation mode is the mainstream. In the early days, the inline mode has the advantage of simple control, but its hydrogen utilization rate is only 67%-91%, resulting in serious hydrogen waste, the current model has been eliminated; the anode dead end mode by sealing the anode outlet of the fuel cell engine, so that hydrogen can stay longer in the stack, thereby promoting the hydrogen utilization rate is improved, but the outlet is sealed to cause accumulation of water, so it needs to be frequently purged, resulting in periodic fluctuations in the air pressure at the hydrogen outlet, thereby reducing stability, affecting the durability and economy of the battery Hydrogen recirculation mode can make unreacted hydrogen through the circulation into the inlet end, reduce hydrogen waste, and there will be no periodic fluctuations in air pressure, thereby promoting fuel cell engines to be more stable. At present, most advanced fuel cells use hydrogen recirculation mode.
On the whole, compared with foreign technologies, there is still a certain gap in the technical indicators of the mainland proton exchange membrane fuel cell system. Specifically, membrane electrodes, bipolar plates, proton exchange membranes, etc. have the ability to be localized, but the scale of production is small; the development of the stack industry is better, but the development of the key components of the auxiliary system is relatively backward, and there is still a certain gap between the rated power and volume power density of the stack compared with foreign countries; the development of the system and vehicle industry is better, there are more supporting manufacturers and the production scale is larger, but most of them use foreign imported parts and components, and the dependence on foreign countries is relatively high. Under the double carbon target, the policy continues to support the development of hydrogen energy, and domestic enterprises continue to exert efforts in the field of hydrogen energy, which is expected to continuously improve the technical level, continuous scale and cost reduction in the core components, and is expected to catch up with or surpass the international leading level.
Fuel cell vehicles have a large space for cost reduction
From the perspective of the cost composition of fuel cells, fuel cell systems and hydrogen storage systems account for a relatively high proportion. At present, fuel cell systems and hydrogen storage systems account for 65% of the total vehicle cost, which is significantly higher than the battery cost of lithium-ion pure electric vehicles (about 40%). Among them, fuel stacks, air supply systems, hydrogen supply systems, humidification and heat exchange, control systems, hydrogen storage systems, etc. accounted for 30%, 7%, 3%, 5%, 5% and 14% respectively. Stack costs and hydrogen storage systems account for the highest proportion, and their cost reduction plays a crucial role in reducing the cost of fuel cell vehicles.
Membrane electrodes account for up to 70% of stack costs, so changes in membrane electrode costs are critical to stack costs. According to the data of the China Electric Vehicle 100 People's Association, the production scale of membrane electrodes (catalysts, proton exchange films, gas diffusion layers) is expanded from 1 million pieces / year to 10 million pieces / year, the production cost can be reduced by about 43%, and the proportion of stack production costs can be reduced from 70% to 57%.
The price of fuel cell systems and hydrogen storage systems has great room for cost reduction. According to the report of China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, with the expansion of the application scope of fuel cell vehicles, the price scale effect of core components and systems will gradually appear, and the price of fuel cell systems for commercial vehicles will drop to 3500/1000/500 yuan/KW (10,000 yuan/KW in 2020), down 65%, 90% and 95% respectively compared with 2020, and the price of hydrogen storage systems for commercial vehicles will be 2025/2035/2050 The annual decline was 3500/2000/1200 yuan/kg (5000 yuan/kg in 2020), down 30%, 60% and 76% respectively compared to 2020.
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