According to data from the China Automobile Association, the number of heavy-duty trucks in mainland China in 2019 was 7.617 million units, accounting for 3.0% of the total number of cars. However, data from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment shows that heavy trucks accounted for 74%, 29% and 29% of the emissions of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and particulate matter in automobiles in 2019.
Annual sales volume of China's heavy-duty truck market (10,000 units)
Source: CAAM, Credit Suisse, China Industry Information Network, Orange Association Research Institute
The emission standards of fuel vehicles have been upgraded, but the transformation to the new energy power technology route is the "root cause". In the field of heavy-duty trucks, the pure electric technology route and the fuel cell technology route are highly expected.
1
In 2021, the number of new energy heavy-duty trucks exceeded 10,000 for the first time
Mainland new energy heavy-duty trucks sold 658 vehicles in 2018; by 2021, for the first time, more than 10,000 vehicles have been achieved.
Sales volume and penetration rate of new energy heavy-duty trucks from 2018 to 2021
Source: Compulsory Traffic Insurance, Orange Club Research Institute
The extraordinary rapid sales of new energy heavy trucks in 2019 stem from the abnormal performance brought about by the centralized listing of pure electric dump trucks purchased in Shenzhen, but it is an indisputable fact that new energy heavy trucks have been on the rise as a whole in recent years. Multiple factors have contributed to the prosperity of the new energy heavy truck market: technological progress, cost reduction, infrastructure improvement, promotion of power exchange forms, subsidy decline and so on.
2019-2022.2 Domestic new energy heavy truck monthly sales trend (unit)
Data source: First Commercial Vehicle Network, Orange Association Research Institute
From January to December 2021, a total of 10,448 new energy heavy-duty trucks were sold, and the annual sales broke through the 10,000-vehicle mark for the first time, accounting for 0.75% of the total sales of heavy-duty trucks from 0.16% in 2020. Stimulated by the subsidy decline, the sales volume of new energy heavy trucks in 2021 will sprint at the end of the year, and the sales volume in December even hit the highest level in the history of the development of new energy heavy trucks, exceeding 3,000 vehicles.
According to the "Notice on Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles Caijian [2020] No. 86", the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles will be extended to the end of 2022, in order to "smooth the intensity and rhythm of subsidy decline, in principle, the subsidy standards for 2020-2022 will be reduced by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively on the basis of the previous year" (non-public sector). That is, the maximum subsidy limit for pure electric heavy trucks (non-public sector models) on the plate before the end of 2021 is 40,000 yuan (20% lower than 50,000 yuan in 2020). If it is licensed in 2022, the maximum subsidy for bicycles is capped at 28,000 yuan, which will be 30% lower than in 2021.
Note: According to GB/T15089-2001, the N1 class refers to the truck with a maximum design total mass of not more than 3500kg; the N2 class refers to the truck with a maximum design total mass of more than 3500kg, but not more than 12000kg; and the N3 class refers to the truck with a maximum design total mass of more than 12000kg
Although the decline of new energy financial subsidies has released some of the potential demand in 2022 in advance, the sales volume of new energy heavy trucks is expected to reach a new high in 2022, driven by the general trend of electrification of heavy trucks.
2
The appearance of the fuel-fired heavy truck, the replacement of the heavy truck outbreak
Among the new energy heavy trucks, pure electric heavy trucks are still the mainstream, but fuel cell heavy trucks have made significant progress. In 2020 and 2021, pure electric heavy-duty trucks accounted for 98.7% and 92.4% respectively, but the proportion of fuel cell heavy-duty trucks was increasing. Fuel cell heavy-duty trucks accounted for 0.7% of the entire new energy heavy-duty truck market in 2020, and increased to 7.5% in 2021. With the formal formation of the "3+2" pattern of fuel cell vehicle urban agglomeration demonstration and promotion that began in August 2021, and the introduction of hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle planning in various demonstration city clusters, it is expected that the fuel cell heavy truck market will usher in an outbreak.
2020-2021 New energy heavy truck fuel market share
Source: CAAM, Orange Will Research Institute collation
With the support of policies, the replacement of heavy trucks ushered in an outbreak. Heavy-duty truck models have large energy consumption, insufficient mileage of electric heavy-duty trucks, high frequency of energy replenishment, slow energy replenishment, short endurance and other issues are more prominent in the operation scenario of heavy trucks, and replacing heavy trucks can fully solve the pain points of electric heavy trucks.
In 2021, the demand for heavy trucks in the mainland ushered in an outbreak. In 2020, 612 heavy-duty trucks were sold (accounting for 23.68% of the 2584 pure electric heavy-duty trucks in the whole year), and the sales of heavy-duty trucks in 2021 increased to 4374 (accounting for 45.31% of the 9654 pure electric heavy-duty trucks in the whole year).
In 2021, the proportion of electric heavy trucks in pure electric heavy trucks
Source: Starting point sharing power exchange, Orange Will Research Institute
The state issued relevant policies to support the development of heavy trucks for power exchange. In 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on Launching the Pilot Work on the Application of the New Energy Vehicle Power Exchange Model", which listed Tangshan, Baotou, Yibin, etc. as cities with heavy truck characteristics. These cities have responded positively, formulated clear promotion goals, and introduced a number of supporting policies to support the promotion and application of heavy trucks, which will effectively promote the rapid growth of heavy truck sales in 2022. At the beginning of 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and Other Departments promulgated the policy of "Implementation Opinions on Further Improving the Service Guarantee Capacity of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure", clarifying the state's goal of improving the service guarantee capacity of new energy vehicle charging infrastructure, and promoting the more standardized and convenient charging of new energy vehicles.
3
The 3-year development trajectory of new energy heavy trucks
From 2019 to 2021, the sales model structure of new energy heavy trucks has undergone great changes.
In 2019, all new energy heavy trucks sold were pure electric heavy trucks, of which the sales of pure electric dump trucks were 2849 units, accounting for 56.57%. 98.77% of the dump trucks are contributed by BYD Commercial Vehicles, the main model is BYD 31T 8×4 pure electric muck truck, the main sales area is Shenzhen, Guangdong, and the procurement of Shenzhen in June 2019 is centralized on the license, which is a one-time behavior.
In 2019, the proportion of sales is second only to pure electric dump trucks is pure electric dump trucks, with sales of 1004 vehicles, of which 99% are contributed by Nanjing Jinlong Kaiwo Automobile, and the main sales area is also Shenzhen, which can be seen that Shenzhen attaches great importance to the promotion and application of new energy special vehicles in the city.
In addition to pure electric dump trucks and pure electric dump trucks, most of the new energy heavy trucks sold in 2019 are sanitation vehicles, such as washing sweepers, washing trucks, sprinkler trucks, dust suppression vehicles and so on. Even tractors are only used for short-distance material transportation, from which it can also be seen that due to the lack of breakthroughs in battery technology, the medium- and long-distance transportation of new energy heavy trucks has not really started.
2019 new energy heavy-duty truck model structure
Source: First Commercial Vehicle Network, Orange Society Research Institute
From 2020 to 2021, the new energy heavy-duty truck market has been rising, and tractors and dump trucks have performed the most. The proportion of new energy tractor sales increased from 26.42% in 2020 to 52.91% in 2021. The surge in sales of new energy tractors is mainly due to the fact that tractors have found their own commercialization path in fixed line scenarios such as mines, steel mills, power plants, and ports in the mode of power exchange.
Sales structure of new energy heavy-duty truck models from 2019 to 2021
Source: Tram Resources, Orange Society Research Institute
The sales structure of new energy heavy-duty truck models in various cities has a certain relationship with the industrial structure of the cities where they are located. In 2021, the total sales volume of the top ten cities in terms of new energy heavy-duty truck sales was 7157 vehicles, accounting for 68.08% of the total annual sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks. Among them, The sales volume of Tangshan and Zhengzhou exceeded 1,000. It is worth noting that 4 of the top 10 cities in terms of sales are from Hebei Province, which is not unrelated to its industrial structure and environmental protection pressures. The model structure of new energy heavy trucks sold in each city is different, and the specific analysis is as follows:
2021 new energy heavy truck sales city ranking
Data source: Tram Resources, Orange Will Research Institute collation
Distribution of new energy heavy-duty truck city sales models from January to December 2021
4
Fuel-fired heavy trucks are just emerging: top 5 cities in terms of sales
Since 2016, with fuel cell system suppliers as the lead and supporting with various automakers, various types of fuel cell vehicles have been carried out in various cities. By the end of 2021, a total of 813 fuel cell heavy trucks will be promoted. Among them, Qingdao, Shanghai, Baoding, Guangzhou and other cities of fuel cell heavy truck model promotion is in the forefront.
Demonstration and promotion case of hydrogen energy heavy truck
5
Lithium battery & combustion, two technical routes of the tortoise and rabbit race
Because lithium batteries developed earlier, lithium battery heavy trucks occupy the absolute mainstream of new energy heavy trucks. Among them, the power of heavy trucks is obvious, and there are policies such as the "Notice on Launching the Pilot Work on the Application of New Energy Vehicles' Power Exchange Mode". The power exchange form effectively makes up for the shortcomings of lithium battery heavy trucks in terms of energy replenishment, endurance, initial purchase cost, etc., but at the same time, its road ahead is not smooth, and the battery model standards, chassis layout, and heavy asset operation are all problems.
The fuel cell heavy-duty truck market share rose from 0.7% in 2020 to 7.5% in 2021. From the release of the "Notice on Carrying Out Fuel Cell Vehicle Demonstration Applications" in 2020, to the formation of the "3+2" pattern of fuel cell vehicle demonstration and promotion city clusters at the end of 2021, and then to the introduction of the "Medium and Long-term Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)" in March 2022, the fuel cell vehicle industry will gradually embark on the fast lane under the impetus of the demonstration city cluster policy.
In general, the current life cycle cost of fuel cell heavy trucks is still high, according to estimates, it can be seen that in 2030, fuel cells will have higher economy than pure electric heavy trucks. At the same time, in the calculation process, we also see that there is still a huge room for fuel cell heavy trucks to reduce costs in key components and fuels.
For hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, the hydrogen price of the hydrogen end and the key components and hydrogen consumption level of the end of the vehicle have a greater impact on the full life cycle cost of fuel cell heavy trucks, and there is still a large space for cost reduction, which requires the coordinated efforts of the whole industrial chain of the hydrogen end and the end of the vehicle.
In the long run, for a long time to come, in the field of heavy trucks, the fuel cell power technology route and the pure electric power technology route will coexist.
This is like a turtle and rabbit race, lithium battery heavy truck is like a rabbit, start early, run fast; fuel power heavy truck is a turtle, start slow, run slow, fuel heavy truck rely on its own good zero emission advantages and cost reduction advantages, can you run to the end, more than rabbit?
For a more detailed analysis, see the Orange Society Hydrogen Energy Database Research Report.
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