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Jiwei network news, Hyundai launched an Indonesian electric vehicle factory, General Motors entered the power battery material field, Ford accelerated its European electric vehicle plan, Volkswagen increased the construction of a German electric vehicle factory, Toyota launched a new plan for pure electric vehicles, and Honda comprehensively accelerated its electrification transformation...
Recently, internationally renowned car brands have increased the intensity of automobile electrification transformation, or released electric vehicle launch plans, or optimized future development plans, of which the power battery industry chain has become a key layout area, research and development, investment efforts are unprecedented, and international cooperation is more frequent. The new moves of international auto brands indicate that the global automotive industry is accelerating the transformation of electrification; however, there are growing concerns about the lithium materials required for electric vehicles.
The electrification of global car companies has accelerated
Since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, countries around the world are accelerating the layout of the new energy vehicle industry, and some countries and regions have also formulated a timetable for the suspension and suspension of fuel vehicles, of which China's Hainan Province, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Norway, Israel, etc. have planned to stop selling fuel vehicles in 2030 and before.
With the joint efforts of the government and industrial chain enterprises, the mainland has rapidly developed into one of the leaders of the global new energy automobile industry, and a number of new energy vehicle brands such as Weilai, Ideal, Xiaopeng, Nezha, Zero Run, BYD, and Aean have emerged. The author's statistics found that from 2015 to 2021, the annual sales of new energy vehicles in the mainland accounted for a global proportion, except for 43.75% in 2020, the rest of the years exceeded 52%; in 2022, the sales of new energy vehicles in the mainland are predicted to be 6 million, accounting for more than 60% of the global proportion.
In fact, in addition to local companies, the layout of international car companies in the field of new energy vehicles is also very large, among which Volkswagen and Volvo plan to realize the electrification of all their models by 2030, Audi plans to stop selling fuel vehicles in 2033, and Honda plans to stop selling fuel vehicles in 2040...
Since entering 2022, international car companies have intensively laid out the new energy automobile industry on the basis of the original, accelerating the process of automobile electrification and intelligent transformation.
On March 2, South Korea's Hyundai Motor announced a strategic roadmap showing that it plans to achieve annual sales of 1.87 million pure electric vehicles by 2030, and plans to invest 95.5 trillion won to improve the competitiveness of software and hardware. Immediately after March 16, Hyundai motor started a new plant in Indonesia to produce pure electric vehicles. At the same time, its Indonesian battery factory, a joint venture with LG, will also be put into operation in 2024.
In the US market, Tesla is thriving, but under the Biden administration's electric vehicle incentives, traditional OEMs such as Ford and General Motors have also accelerated the process of vehicle electrification. Among them, GM has embarked on both electrification and intelligent layout, and has made two consecutive shots in March this year alone, one is to invest in the construction of a battery material factory in Canada with South Korea's POSCO Chemical Company, and the other is to increase the amount of 3.45 billion US dollars to support the autonomous driving company Cruise.
Another U.S. auto giant, Ford, is also accelerating the transformation of vehicle electrification, and the budget for electric vehicles has increased from $30 billion to $50 billion, of which $5 billion is planned to be invested in 2022, and hopes to increase the proportion of electric vehicle production to 50% by 2030. It should be noted that battery materials have become the focus of Ford's layout, and recently has been in contact with South Korean battery manufacturer SK On Co. Ltd. has partnered with Turkish industrial group Koc Holding AS to build a battery factory in Ankara, turkey's capital, as part of its European EV footprint.
In Europe, Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi and other car companies are also accelerating the transformation process. Taking Volkswagen as an example, it is accelerating the construction of power battery and new energy vehicle factories in Chinese mainland and Europe, and by March, the holding company Guoxuan Hi-Tech has accelerated mass production; the layout of a 40 GWh power battery plant in Spain; and the construction plan of the Wolfsburg plant in Germany with an annual production capacity of about 250,000 pure electric vehicles has also been put on the agenda. In addition, Volkswagen plans to establish a joint venture with Huawei to establish an autonomous driving company.
DIGITIMES Research believes that more than 30 new electric vehicle models are expected to appear in Europe in 2022 and 2023, and there will be more than 100 electric vehicle models in the US market by 2026.
Japan has also begun to let go of its obsession with hydrogen vehicles and accelerate the development of electric vehicles. Among them, Toyota plans to launch 30 pure electric vehicles by 2030 and strive for 1/3 of the global pure electric market share; Honda has not only joined hands with Sony recently, but also comprehensively promoted the electrification transformation in China, and even adjusted Acura's sales strategy to pave the way for its electrification transformation in China.
The battle for lithium battery resources is likely to intensify
At present, new energy vehicles mainly have two technical routes, one is electrification, the other is the use of hydrogen fuel cells, lithium battery industry analyst Chen Lei believes, "The current hydrogen fuel technology is not mature enough, and the technology patents are mainly in the hands of Japanese companies, which is not conducive to the development of the hydrogen fuel vehicle industry, the mainstream view in the industry is that in the short term, electrification is still the main development route of new energy vehicles." ”
In the inventory of the layout of many global auto brands since January 2022, the author also found that most companies mainly seize the lithium battery field, and Volkswagen, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, etc. are choosing joint ventures or self-built supply chains.
Industry knows that at present, due to the continuous push of the upstream lithium battery industry chain cost, has led to the continuous pressure on the new energy vehicle industry chain enterprises, following the power battery enterprises to open the second round of price increases, the main engine factories have also followed up with the second price increase. Recently, car companies, including Tesla, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling, have made price adjustments ranging from 3,000 yuan to 30,000 yuan for their new energy models, and some models have stopped receiving orders due to losses.
Consulting firm Wood Mackenzie believes that the global consumption of lithium batteries in vehicles has accounted for 80% of the total demand for lithium batteries, and the market supply and demand will continue to be tight this year. In addition, it predicts that from 2021 to 2030, the global lithium-ion battery capacity may increase by more than 5 times to 5500GWh. According to incomplete statistics, the current European power battery production capacity has been built or under construction has exceeded 1TWh, the analysis of the Institute of High Engineering believes that by 2030, the demand for lithium in European lithium battery factories will increase by 18 times, and cobalt will also increase by more than 5 times.
It can be seen that as the global automotive industry accelerates the electrification transformation, the demand for upstream lithium battery materials will continue to surge, and the market will show a situation of supply and demand, and the supply of any link may lead to a tight supply and demand situation.
Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, pointed out when talking about the recent collective price increase of new energy vehicles that the domestic new energy automobile industry as a whole is still in the transformation stage, most enterprises are in a state of loss, only a few enterprises are profitable, and the high price of battery materials has affected the healthy development of the new energy automobile industry in the mainland.
Chen Lei also analyzed, "At present, China and Europe are in front of the electrification of cars, excluding Tesla, the United States and Japan, the two major automobile powers can be said to have just made efforts." But now we see that the world's major power battery companies are seizing lithium battery resources, and even car companies have joined in, indicating that everyone is still more anxious about lithium battery resources. Especially in our country, high-quality lithium mines are abroad, our right to speak is low, and we are more vulnerable to the impact of the international environment. ”
It is understood that the current proportion of lithium resources imported from the mainland is 65%; nickel dependence on foreign countries is more than 90%; cobalt reserves are also in a state of scarcity, also heavily dependent on imports, "As everyone enters the field of new energy vehicles, the global competition for lithium resources will become more and more fierce." Chen Lei said.
In addition, the data of the Association of Passenger Vehicles shows that the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2021 is about 7%, Norway is higher, reaching 69%, but the United States is only 4%, Japan is only 0.8%, and Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, believes that as the United States increases the penetration of new energy, the world's new energy vehicles have entered a new stage of strong development; but compared with traditional fuel vehicles, "the changes in the new energy vehicle market are more complex, not only affected by consumption, but also affected by policies and other environments." ”
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