What does it mean when a tech company is forced to abandon its most important suppliers? For Huawei, this means that a difficult transformation has officially begun.
In May 2024, Huawei was hit again by the U.S. government, this time targeting chip suppliers Qualcomm and Intel, which it has worked with for many years. The U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it has revoked the licenses of some U.S. companies to export 4G and some Wi-Fi products to Huawei. This decision will undoubtedly deal a heavy blow to Huawei, but Huawei is not without a fight.
In fact, Huawei was prepared as early as last year. Well-known analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has predicted that with the rise of Huawei's self-developed Kirin 9000 series processors, Qualcomm will become the biggest loser, and will completely lose Huawei's orders by 2024. Now that prediction has come true.
For Huawei, the challenge is not only how to fill the gap of 4G chips, but more importantly, how to achieve autonomy and controllability of the entire product line. Just like Apple, Huawei must fully embrace the ARM architecture, replacing Intel and AMD's x86 CPUs with self-developed processors. It's undoubtedly a long and difficult road, but Huawei has no choice.
When a company is forced to abandon a long-term supplier in search of a new solution, it requires not only a large capital investment, but also a huge technical challenge. But Huawei is not the first company to embark on this path, and Apple's ARM path may provide some inspiration for Huawei.
Judging from the development process of Apple's M series chips, it is not possible to achieve a complete transformation from X86 to ARM overnight. It took years for Apple to build M-series processors that could compete with Intel. Similarly, Huawei must take its time but move forward, step by step, with a mindset of "taking it slowly, but moving forward", and ultimately achieve autonomy and control.
Of course, this process is by no means smooth. Huawei faces huge challenges in terms of capacity, process, and performance. However, as mentioned in the article, by adopting an "UltraFusion" package architecture similar to Apple's M1 Ultra, Huawei may be able to make up for the lack of process and improve the performance of the processor.
Ultimately, Huawei's path to transformation is about whether it can remain invincible in the future technology competition. The loss of suppliers like Qualcomm and Intel is undoubtedly a heavy blow, but it also creates a great opportunity for Huawei to rebuild its autonomy. Only through independent innovation can Huawei truly achieve the goal of "security and controllability" and remain invincible in the fierce war of science and technology.
Therefore, I think Huawei should learn from Apple's experience and fully embrace the ARM architecture and replace Intel and AMD's x86 CPUs with self-developed processors. Although this is a long and difficult road, only in this way can Huawei truly get rid of its dependence on foreign suppliers and achieve true autonomy and control. Of course, this will require a huge investment of money and manpower, but I believe that as long as Huawei works together, it will be able to win this tough battle.
As mentioned above, Huawei's challenge now is not only how to fill the gap in 4G chips, but more importantly, to achieve autonomy and controllability of the entire product line. The road may seem daunting, but Huawei has no choice.
First of all, in the field of mobile terminals, Huawei must accelerate the pace of self-developed ARM-based processors. The article mentions that the Kirin 9000S series processors launched by Huawei in the second half of last year have been determined not to purchase Qualcomm products, which means that Huawei has made corresponding preparations. Next, Huawei needs to accelerate the application of this architecture in more product lines, including smartphones and tablets. Through independent R&D, Huawei can get rid of its dependence on suppliers such as Qualcomm and achieve true autonomy and control.
At the same time, in the field of PCs and servers, Huawei must also complete the transformation from x86 to ARM as soon as possible. The article mentions that Huawei once had the so-called "Tower Hill Project", which aims to launch PC and tablet products based on self-developed ARM processors as soon as possible to replace Intel and AMD's X86 CPUs. Although Huawei later denied the plan, it undoubtedly reflects the urgent need for such a transformation within the company.
For Huawei, this transformation process is undoubtedly difficult. Apple began to equip MacBooks with self-developed M-series chips in 2021, and has launched four generations of products so far. This shows that the transformation from x86 to arm is not achieved overnight, and requires long-term technology accumulation and continuous investment. For Huawei, they had to complete this transformation within a limited time, which was undoubtedly a huge challenge for Huawei's R&D team.
However, Huawei is not without a foothold. The article mentions that by adopting the "UltraFusion" packaging architecture similar to Apple's M1 Ultra, Huawei may be able to make up for the shortcomings in the process and improve the performance of the processor. At the same time, Huawei can also actively learn from the experience of Apple and NVIDIA in advanced packaging technology, and improve the competitiveness of its products through "glue chips" and other methods.
In addition, in terms of production capacity, Huawei is also continuously increasing the production capacity of self-developed processors. The article points out that Huawei's N+2 process production capacity has increased from 7,000 to 20,000 pieces this year, which can basically meet the needs of mobile phones and GPU products. In the future, Huawei also plans to launch the N+3 process to further increase production capacity. This is crucial for Huawei to complete the transformation from x86 to ARM.
Overall, the challenges facing Huawei, while daunting, are not impossible to overcome. By learning from Apple's experience, fully embracing the ARM architecture, and actively exploring advanced packaging technologies, Huawei is fully capable of reshaping its product line to achieve true autonomy and control.
Of course, this will require a huge investment of money and manpower, but I believe that as long as Huawei works together, it will be able to win this tough battle. After all, for a tech giant, achieving autonomy and controllability is not achieved overnight, and requires continuous effort and tenacity. It is believed that through this transformation, Huawei will not only be able to get rid of its dependence on foreign suppliers, but also occupy a favorable position in the future technology competition and become a truly "safe and controllable" technology company.