Boeing's difficulties in delivering to China may affect civil aviation safety

Draw the curtains and time in the clouds

2024-05-24 19:50Posted in Beijing International Domain Creators

According to Flying Friends, Boeing recently suspended aircraft deliveries to China again. In the case of the most popular 737 MAX, Boeing has not delivered a single 737 aircraft to China in nearly a month since the delivery of the B-225J to Hainan Airlines on April 29, 2024.          

Pictured: Deliveries of the 737 MAX have recently been halted again Photo: Draw the curtains

Some domestic media reported on this matter that "Boeing suspends the delivery of aircraft to China", which is actually not accurate. Because the 787-9 is still being delivered, China Southern Airlines received the B-20EL on May 13. And the headline seems to be that the United States is looking for trouble and doesn't want China to use Boeing planes — and that's not the case.

The U.S. government has not now ordered a ban on the sale and delivery of Boeing aircraft to China. China is a big user of Boeing aircraft, and there are still more than 60 pre-pandemic 737 MAX aircraft that have not yet arrived. In the second serious air crash in 2019, China ordered hundreds of Boeing 737 MAX and produced about 180 of them, all of which have been in the sun in the United States for many years. Some of them were resold to other countries, mainly India, which took more than 50 planes because of long-term non-acceptance. Now that there is a shortage of aircraft in the world, India can be said to have taken a big advantage.             

In January 2024, the mainland resumed receiving the Boeing 737 MAX, and at that time, the general manager predicted that there would be a wave of peak reception. In fact, companies including Air China, Hainan Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Shenzhen, Donghai and other companies have received about 30 737 MAX 8s this year, and these new aircraft have been entrusted with reuse immediately after their arrival, and the frequency of flights is particularly high. Because it is 15% more fuel-efficient than the previous generation 737NG, it can save a lot of fuel costs. Moreover, the quality of the Boeing 737 is really good, and it can fly ten takeoffs and landings a day abroad, which is incomparable to many other aircraft. Foreign media have also reported positively about this, and now most of their people are no longer afraid of the 737 MAX.          

Figure: Related to this stuff web image

So why did the 737 MAX suddenly stop deliveries in mainland China now? The reason is related to the US FAA's requirement to "increase the duration of cabin sound recorders". As I have said before, the CVR used to use magnetic tape and could only store 2 hours of data; Now that technology is developing and electronic media are used, the FAA requires manufacturers to increase it to 25 hours, so that it can be recorded from takeoff to landing, and in the event of a plane crash, it is clear what was said when preparing for takeoff. 

However, this change involves the manufacture of aircraft, so it needs to be re-certified. This requirement put forward by the United States itself, the certification is very fast, after all, it has no impact on the safety of the aircraft, and it can even be said that it has no impact at all, and other countries around the world have also recognized it, after all, this is equivalent to the car's dash cam with a large-capacity memory card, so it is basically given "seconds". But sometimes it's just that chance, and Boeing is really unlucky......

China has recently launched sanctions against several Boeing affiliates. Some American media believe that the delivery of civilian airliners should not be associated with this. However, some analysts believe that the mainland civil aviation has attached great importance to flight safety, and the changes in the design of the aircraft need to be carefully studied and reviewed, and this time it should be just a simple "study". It is impossible not to approve it, because it is not yet possible for Continental not to use the Boeing 737 MAX......          

Pictured: Too many companies in the mainland rely on 737 to survive Photo: Close the curtains

There are indeed many companies in mainland China that rely on the Boeing 737, such as Hainan Airlines, Xiamen Airlines, Shandong Airlines, Shanghai Airlines, Lucky Air, Kunming Airlines, Hebei Airlines, Jiuyuan Airlines, Ruili Airlines, Okay Air, Urumqi Airlines, China United Airlines, Fuzhou Airlines, Jiangxi Airlines, Suparna Airlines, Chang'an Airlines, Dalian Airlines, Inner Mongolia Airlines and Happiness Airlines, and many others. The Boeing 737 MAX is the latest generation of 737 products, and if they really don't import them at all, the future of these companies is in jeopardy.

Some of the above companies have announced the introduction of C919, but after all, C919 is still in the stage of capacity ramp-up, so some companies have switched to the introduction of Airbus. But it is very dangerous for a small company to walk on two legs, and the cost of supporting two teams at the same time is extremely high. For example, Okay Air now has 23 737s, and it can barely uncover the pot, and asking it to switch to an A320 is tantamount to strangling it. There are also companies like Happiness Airlines, which are now unable to make money on 5 737-800s, let alone introduce new models.          

So if the 737 MAX is not used from now on, these companies will gradually shut down as their current aircraft get older. In fact, due to the fact that the 737 MAX has not been introduced in the past few years, including large companies of Hainan Airlines, the number of old aircraft is gradually increasing, and the cost of repair and maintenance has risen a lot.

Pictured: Old aircraft need to be replaced Photo: Close the curtains

Continental airliners used to be used for 20 years, but now Hainan Airlines' oldest 737-800 is 24 years old. In addition to Hainan Airlines, China Southern Airlines and Air China also have 737s that are more than 20 years old. Although they have strong maintenance capabilities, it is also an undeniable fact that old aircraft have a high failure rate and high maintenance costs. 

U.S. airlines are particularly fond of older aircraft, and despite their high level of maintenance, it's also an indisputable fact that older aircraft accidents are frequent. Not long ago, it was reported that the flaps could not be opened, the landing gear could not be put down, the engine was on fire, and so on. It has attracted the attention of many media and people around the world, calling it "How old are Boeing". The Civil Aviation Administration of the mainland attaches great importance to the safety of civil aviation, and not long ago issued a special document requiring all airlines to do a good job in the safety management of old aircraft.

Therefore, if Boeing again suspends the delivery of 737 MAX aircraft to China due to the duration of the cabin sound recorder, many companies' fleets cannot be updated normally, which may have an impact on the mainland's civil aviation safety.

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Personal opinion, for reference only