The author | Wang Yunpeng
Produced | automotive grand view
Following the emergence of energy industries such as wind power, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries, this time it is the turn of hydrogen energy.
On March 23, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration jointly issued the "Medium- and Long-term Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)", which proposes that hydrogen energy be listed as an important part of the future national energy system, and it is expected to form a relatively complete institutional and policy environment for the development of the hydrogen energy industry by 2025. By 2035, it is expected to form a hydrogen energy industry system and build a diversified hydrogen energy application ecology covering transportation, energy storage, industry and other fields.
It is worth mentioning that this is not only the medium- and long-term planning of the first hydrogen energy industry in the mainland, but also the hydrogen energy strategy has also been upgraded to a national strategy for the first time. Because of this, on the day of the release of the above plan, the hydrogen energy sector broke out, and more than a dozen individual stocks rose and fell, showing the potential of the trillion-level market.
Time to April 7, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other six departments jointly issued the "14th Five-Year Plan" to promote the high-quality development of the petrochemical and chemical industry, also mentioned that "for the development of the hydrogen energy industry, it is mentioned to overcome the core technology, enhance the momentum of innovation and development, and accelerate the breakthrough of key technologies such as the large-scale application of 'green hydrogen'." ”
It can be said that with the main torch of hydrogen as fuel at the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics being ignited, hydrogen energy seems to have become the "top stream" in the new energy industry overnight.
While the hydrogen energy industry has become a hot spot in the industry, the pace of its commercialization is also accelerating. Take the automotive industry, one of the important scenarios for the commercialization of hydrogen energy, as an example. According to the data released by the Beijing Winter Olympic Organizing Committee, more than 1,000 hydrogen vehicles were demonstrated during the Winter Olympics.
In terms of products, including the domestic SAIC Motor Group, Great Wall Motor, GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE Group, and foreign Toyota Motor, Hyundai Motor, BMW Group, etc., all have a layout for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Even Musk, who once called hydrogen fuel cells "batteries for dummies" and called the technology "incredibly stupid," said in early April that after years of skepticism, tesla would move from lithium batteries to hydrogen in 2024.
Judging from the gradual landing of commercialization scenarios, the introduction of policies, and the entry of more and more car companies, the most basic formula of "2H + O = 2H O" in junior high school chemistry is accelerating the opening of another door for new energy vehicles.
01 Air outlet
Although the "hydrogen wind" has struck, it has stirred up multiple ripples in the current new energy automobile industry. But when it comes to the use of hydrogen in the automotive industry, it goes back to the 1970s.
In 1970, GM first proposed the concept of "hydrogen economy", hoping to use the chemical properties of hydrogen to achieve clean energy recycling. In 1992, Toyota also began research and development in the field of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and in 2014 launched the world's first mass-produced FCEV (hydrogen fuel cell) model, the first generation MIRAI.
And shift your gaze to the country. China's exploration of hydrogen vehicles began in 1998. According to the data, this year, the team of Professor Chen Quanshi of the Department of Automotive Engineering of Tsinghua University developed a hydrogen energy vehicle with the Golf as the "base" and powered by a group of 5 kilowatt fuel cells.
In 2001, the national "863" plan for electric vehicles major special projects was launched, and the expert group put forward the overall route of "three vertical and three horizontal" for the development of new energy vehicles in China, pointing out the research and development and industrialization ideas of new energy vehicles.
The so-called "three verticals" refers to the three roads of hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles; "three horizontal" refers to the three technologies of multi-energy powertrain control system, motor and its control system, and battery and its management system.
After the domestic new energy vehicle development framework was finalized, around the 2008 Olympic Games, the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles also ushered in the first small peak. According to the data, during the 2008 Olympic Games, SAIC Motor and Tongji University jointly developed 20 fuel cell cars as public vehicles during the race, and Tsinghua University and Beiqi Foton developed 3 fuel cell buses for demonstration operation.
Unfortunately, however, this was only a flash in the pan. With the end of the demonstration activities of the 2008 Olympic Games, the industrialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has not been realized on a large scale, and the operation of hydrogen refueling stations has also been suspended.
Even since then, the state has successively issued the "Energy Technology Revolution Innovation Action Plan (2016-2030)", "Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)", "Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap" and other related plans, and all of them have clarified the strategic position of the hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry, and listed hydrogen fuel cell vehicles as a key support area.
Compared with the other two "columns", especially pure electric vehicles, the industrialization process of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has not yet accelerated. According to data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the national production of fuel cell vehicles in 2015 was only 10. From 2016 to 2021, the sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles was only 629, 1275, 1527, 2737, 1177 and 1586, respectively.
However, with the "carbon neutrality" goal triggering a new round of energy and material revolution, lithium-based new energy vehicles are difficult to break through the endurance problem, into this year, hydrogen energy has also begun to stand in the spotlight after wind power, photovoltaics, lithium batteries.
It is worth mentioning that with the continuous heating up of the hydrogen energy industry, the first national hydrogen energy development plan of the mainland was released in March, which clarified the energy attributes and positioning of hydrogen for the first time, established the important supporting role of hydrogen energy on the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, and injected a cardiotonic agent into the development of domestic hydrogen fuel vehicles.
02 Prospects
For now, the debate over the technical route of vehicle electrification has all but disappeared. Compared with 5 years ago, when the industry was still repeatedly struggling with the electrification technology route of HEV, PHEV and BEV, the current industry consensus has determined the direction as "pure electric".
But under the top-level issue of moving towards carbon neutrality, new debates have emerged. This is how to achieve "pure electric", especially in the case of lithium battery technology represented by "renewable energy power generation, UHV transmission, and new energy vehicle power consumption", which has not been able to solve the short board of endurance, and the industry's route dispute has become increasingly fierce.
Specifically, the long-endurance market is clamoring for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Because the problem of "power" and "energy density" faced by lithium batteries is not a problem at all for hydrogen fuel cells. Simply put, hydrogen combines the characteristics of "extremely high energy density, unlimited possible system capacity, and no need for charging".
Take energy density as an example. Public information shows that the energy density of lithium batteries can reach up to 300Wh/Kg, lithium iron phosphate is less than 200Wh/Kg, and the energy density of hydrogen fuel cell systems exceeds 350wh/kg. Even if the hydrogen storage technology is not mature enough at this stage, and the amount of hydrogen carried by the cylinder is not enough, the energy of hydrogen is significantly ahead of the lithium battery.
In terms of endurance, the charging principle of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is more like a traditional fuel vehicle, and after 3-5 minutes of hydrogen fuel, the single driving range can reach 400-700 kilometers.
In addition, under the overall route of "three vertical and three horizontal", the support of the top-level design for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in recent years has also increased unabated.
In 2016, the Notice on Financial Support Policies for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2016-2020 was issued, clarifying the scope and amount of subsidies for different technical routes. Among them, fuel cell vehicles are the only models among new energy vehicles that enjoy preferential policies for subsidies from 2016 to 2020. In terms of subsidy standards, the national subsidy standards for passenger cars, light passenger trucks and heavy passenger trucks are 200,000 yuan, 300,000 yuan and 500,000 yuan per vehicle, respectively.
In 2019, "hydrogen energy" was written into the government work report for the first time, proposing to "promote the construction of facilities such as charging and hydrogenation". In September 2021, the five departments of the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Development and Reform Commission, and the Energy Bureau once again issued the "Notice on Carrying Out the Demonstration Application of Fuel Cell Vehicles" and decided to carry out the demonstration application of fuel cell vehicles.
At the same time, the method of "substituting awards for compensation" is adopted to reward the shortlisted demonstration urban agglomerations according to their goals, and the subsidy landing time of fuel cell vehicles is officially determined. After entering the award in lieu of compensation, the national compensation for a standard fuel cell vehicle in 2022 is 110,000 yuan.
It is worth mentioning that at the same time as the "Notice on carrying out the Demonstration Application of Fuel Cell Vehicles" was released, many regions in China have also launched corresponding hydrogen energy industry plans. Among them, Beijing proposed to promote 10,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and build 74 hydrogen refueling stations within 5 years, making the value of the whole industry chain reach 24 billion yuan. In Shanghai, it has set a hydrogen fuel development goal of "100 stations, 100 billion, 100 million vehicles": that is, by 2023, about 100 hydrogen refueling stations will be planned, an output value of nearly 100 billion yuan will be formed, and the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will exceed 10,000.
Then this year, with the promulgation of the "Medium- and Long-term Plan for the Development of hydrogen energy industry (2021-2035)" and the "14th Five-Year Plan" to promote the high-quality development of the petrochemical and chemical industry, the development and use prospects of hydrogen energy are becoming more and more clear.
In this context, the layout of the automotive industry for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is also gradually accelerating. From the perspective of the layout of car companies, the domestic SAIC Motor, Great Wall Motor, GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE Group, and foreign Toyota Motor, Hyundai Motor, BMW Group, etc. have all laid out hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Among them, Toyota's MIRAI has launched the second generation and is widely used at the Beijing Winter Olympics. Hyundai Motor said that its hydrogen fuel cell vehicle NEXO China version was the first test in the domestic open road and is expected to be listed this year.
"Compared with the history of China's pure electric vehicles from incubation to high-quality development, domestic fuel cell vehicles are currently in the product introduction period and are entering a growth period of rapid decline in application costs." Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said.
In other words, after years of accumulation, the current domestic hydrogen fuel vehicles seem to have reached the eve of the outbreak.
03 Challenge
"Hydrogen is too expensive, inefficient, and difficult to promote and transport." "You won't see any hydrogen energy applied to cars, not even in 10 years, because the physics behind it is so irrational." Volkswagen Group CEO Herbert Diess' statement, while somewhat absolute, is not without merit.
In other words, from the current situation, cost is indeed the core barrier restricting the popularity of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
"The cost of hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars is about 1.5-4 times that of current lithium-ion electric vehicles/fuel vehicles. In terms of commercial vehicles, the price of 8.5-meter-long buses is about 600,000 yuan for fuel models, about 1.2 million yuan for pure electric vehicle models, and 1.6 million yuan to 1.8 million yuan for hydrogen fuel cell models. Wen Lihui, a researcher at the Wisdom Bud Innovation Research Center, said.
Why are hydrogen fuel cell vehicles so expensive?
According to the data, the core components of hydrogen fuel cells include stacks, membrane electrodes, bipolar plates, proton exchange membranes, catalysts, gas diffusion layers, and so on. Take the membrane electrode as an example. According to the data, the catalyst in the membrane electrode is mainly composed of platinum, and the price of platinum per gram is more than 200 yuan. Coupled with the expensive proton exchange membrane, only these few components, a car has to spread the cost of tens of thousands of yuan or even hundreds of thousands of yuan.
"The reduction of cost requires the maturity of technology and reach a certain scale, the current hydrogen fuel cell has reached the key point of technological breakthrough, the next breakthrough point is to achieve the maturity of technology, and promote the large-scale development of demonstration points." Zhang Yinguang, deputy secretary of the party committee and general manager of the State Power Investment Hydrogen Energy Company, said in an interview with the media.
In addition, the cost of hydrogen production, hydrogen storage and hydrogen transportation is also a challenge for the large-scale promotion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
At present, the production structure of hydrogen in the mainland is mainly fossil fuel hydrogen (coal to hydrogen), accounting for 62%; followed by natural gas hydrogen production and industrial by-product hydrogen, accounting for 18% respectively; and finally electrolyzed water hydrogen production (green hydrogen) accounted for 1%.
Green hydrogen purity is high and there are few impurities, which can be pollution-free, but the cost is high. It is reported that the cost of coal-to-hydrogen is about 10 yuan / kg, while the cost of green hydrogen is about 50 yuan / kg. And then use the terminal, the price per kilogram of hydrogen energy is more than 90 yuan.
At the same time, the cost of storing hydrogen is relatively high. It is reported that the cost of domestic hydrogen storage bottles is about 27,000 yuan, while the price of supporting facilities is 150,000 yuan. In terms of hydrogen transportation, according to the industry's calculations, due to factors such as cost and high loss, the cost of hydrogen transportation is roughly 2 US dollars / kg.
"Just as lithium battery cars require a large number of charging stations/substations, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles also need a large number of hydrogen refueling station layouts. However, from the current situation, the number of existing hydrogen refueling stations in operation is far from reaching the conditions of large-scale popularization. Wen Lihui said.
Although the current development reality of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is still relatively "bone-like" due to bottlenecks such as cost and technology, with the landing of a number of policies, the current hydrogen energy strategy has become a national strategy side by side with the electric-based new energy strategy. Moreover, in terms of market space, according to the calculation of the China Hydrogen Energy Alliance, hydrogen energy is expected to account for about 10% of China's energy system by 2050, with hydrogen demand approaching 60 million tons and an annual economic output value of more than 10 trillion yuan.
Therefore, how to prevent the chaos of overheating in the industry is also one of the challenges that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles need to deal with.
"The hydrogen energy industry is in the early stage of development, facing many challenges such as weak innovation ability, low level of technical equipment, and lagging basic systems supporting industrial development, and it is necessary to strengthen top-level design to guide the healthy and orderly development of the industry." Wang Xiang, deputy director of the High Technology Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said.
"2H + O = 2H O", starting from the formula of the source, hydrogen and oxygen react to release heat and water, everything is perfect. However, from the current technical reality, the fuel cell industry still has many problems to be solved. Quoting industry experts, that is, "the outlet has arrived, but hydrogen fuel cell vehicles still have some way to go to become mainstream." ”