Author 丨 Cui Liwen
Responsible editor 丨 Cui Liwen
Edit 丨 Chic
In 2019, although reluctant, Li Bin was rated as the "most miserable person". At that time, He Xiaopeng, who was experiencing the darkest moment on the same track, was also difficult to say relaxed.
"I'm already in the ICU, I'm hanging up."
"We didn't get much better either, sitting at the door of the ICU, ready to wait to get in."
Such a dialogue occurred on the beach in Hong Kong in the early morning of one day, in addition to the self-deprecation between the two, He Xiaopeng deeply felt the difficulty of building a car. But since you have made a choice, no matter how difficult it is, you still need to stare into the abyss and go down. Compared with sighing and complaining, trying to "save yourself" is the most urgent thing.
Entering 2020, He Xiaopeng, who was forced to go to the gambling table, played an extremely risky card - Xiaopeng P7, and became a ren without success. Fortunately, the results are quite gratifying, such a new attempt with no precedent to refer to, and finally gained the recognition of end users.
In August of the same year, it went to the United States to ring the bell and go public, so that Xiaopeng Automobile got more "chips" from the capital market and had the confidence to survive. Everything gradually develops towards a good plot.
Time flies, and 2021 also comes to an end in the hustle and bustle. At this moment, if you want to give a year-end summary to this new force's car-making, the movie "WrestleMania!" The classic line in "Daddy" can already illustrate many things.
"If you get a silver medal, you're always forgotten; if you win a gold medal, you'll be a role model."
Indeed, Yu He Xiaopeng, Yu Xiaopeng Automobile, in the past 12 months, even if the gun was not optimistic when it started, but still through the back-end force, let the entire new energy industry, really realize their full picture.
What exactly do you want to do? What will be done? What are the bigger ambitions? How will this happen? One question after another has a more concrete answer.
However, what needs to be vigilant is that Xiaopeng is not yet a winner until he really reaches the end. As a result, there are still certain variables...
01
In order to "pin the crown"
"I believe that The monthly delivery of Xiaopeng Automobile Q4 will continue to increase, and finally successfully break through the peak of monthly delivery of 15,000 units."
In the conference call after the release of this year's Q2 financial report, He Xiaopeng, as the founder, chairman and CEO of Xiaopeng Motors, made a confident prediction for the next terminal performance.
But the problem is that standing at that node at that time, Xiaopeng's monthly delivery volume is still far from the target number, and there is still a big gap. Therefore, such a statement, in the eyes of onlookers, is more like a boost to confidence. In the end, whether it can be achieved or not, there are too many uncontrollable factors.
Fortunately, with Xiaopeng's terminal sales in November, the total delivery volume reached 15,613 vehicles, and He Xiaopeng can be said to have successfully fulfilled his promise. The new force has also completed the cumulative delivery volume, and has overtaken Weilai, which has long occupied the top position in the list.
And in the just-concluded last month of 2021, the advantages are still expanding. Xiaopeng delivered a total of 16,000 new vehicles in December, an increase of 181% year-on-year. A total of 41,751 new vehicles were delivered in the fourth quarter, an increase of 222% year-on-year.
In 2021, a total of 98,155 new cars were delivered, an increase of 263% year-on-year, just one step away from the 100,000-vehicle mark, and successfully won the "annual sales crown" of the new forces.
Obviously, data doesn't lie. Looking at the "winning the championship", there are many praiseworthy points in the past year for its own deeds.
First of all, it is not difficult to find that although Xiaopeng has a certain gap in the average selling price, the conversion angle brings it the richest product structure between the three, and the range of 150,000-400,000 yuan covered by the models on sale is also the most extensive.
In other words, with only the current strategic layout analysis, Xiaopeng is located in the terminal to undoubtedly include more potential users, and then achieve maximum quantitative change.
In this process, the continuous increase in the number of monthly deliveries of Xiaopeng P7 provides the strongest support. In particular, since last July, deliveries have stabilized above the 6,000-unit mark. In November, it set a single-month record of 7,839 vehicles.
As the first mass-produced model, the Xiaopeng G3 also successfully completed a mid-term redesign in July last year. Although it has experienced a short period of pain in the generation, it is gradually able to provide sales contributions within its capacity.
The Xiaopeng P5, which was officially listed in mid-September, has shouldered the heavy responsibility of becoming another "strong point" in addition to the Xiaopeng P7. The lower price threshold and stronger intelligent configuration are all the confidence given to it by Xiaopeng.
In the end, the results did not disappoint. When the ramp-up is gradually completed, a total of 2,154 new vehicles will be delivered in November, and the figure in December will become 5,030 units. There is no doubt that the terminal is constantly increasing the volume and is still in progress.
"To be honest, in 2021, Xiaopeng may be the most hungry for deliveries among the top three of the new forces. Through various methods of impulse, to win the pin crown, is what it pursues. ”
The above comment is xiaopeng in the eyes of other new forces "friend businessmen", and my identification point focuses on: determination and execution are the most precious things it has shown in the past year. Especially when the chip shortage hit and the supply chain crisis caused by the epidemic intensified, Xiaopeng's production capacity seemed to be under pressure.
At the same time, whether it is direct operation or co-construction with partners, Xiaopeng is crazy in the laying of offline stores. And also invested a lot of manpower, material and financial resources to expand their own supercharging and replenishment network.
All kinds of measures, like an invisible pusher, surrounded by the second half of the anti-super Weilai, won the pin crown in one fell swoop.
02
Standing "human"
"New forces need people, and the founders of new forces need people."
In the past, similar feelings have become more intense. The fundamental reason, or as a "latecomer" in the vast ocean of the automotive industry, one has no historical background as accumulation, and the other has no past glory to brag about, if you want the end market and consumers to accept you, you need a memory point that is clear enough and can convince them.
Unfortunately, at present, for most of the players on the same track, the answer has not been given, and even some people have gradually lost themselves. On the other hand, Xiaopeng, the best "intelligent" experience in China, is its unswerving human design.
"People scold you, why are you so polite, don't think how good they are."
Also last year, He Xiaopeng was in the CCTV "Meet the Big Coffee" program, talking about the previous feud with Tesla CEO Musk. As for the reason, it goes back to the 2020 Guangzhou International Auto Show.
When Xiaopeng announced that it would take the lead in equipping LiDAR on the third mass production model, that is, the Xiaopeng P5 that has been delivered so far, thereby improving the performance of the automatic driving architecture and safety redundancy, it quickly attracted the attention of the entire industry. Musk then updated his slightly ironic remarks on his personal social platform.
As a bystander, from He Xiaopeng's reply, what I see more is a kind of "technical self-confidence". Soon, in January this year, Xiaopeng officially pushed its proud NGP automatic navigation assisted driving system to users.
On March 19, Beijing time, with Xiaopeng Automobile's Guangzhou headquarters as the starting point, the new force that attached the "intelligent" label to its body launched an eight-day NGP expedition with a total of 3675 kilometers and more than 10 major cities along the eastern coast.
With a full volume of mass-produced automatic driver assistance functions pushed to users, such a challenge in real high-speed road conditions, no one in the industry has ever done before. The final result, also performed well enough, successfully achieved a transcendence of tesla NoA experience level.
At this moment, after continuous OTA iteration upgrades, NGP has undoubtedly become more powerful. In terms of intelligent cockpit, no matter the UI design, fluency and comprehensive ability of the voice assistant of the entire car and machine system, Xiaopeng already has a capital that can be proud.
Seeing this, I want to shout at those traditional car companies that are still insensitive: "Entering the era of electrification, it is not that the so-called car-making process and driving texture will become dispensable, but intelligent, which is the most important thing that determines whether you can survive in the future." ”
Obviously, Xiao Peng has long understood such a truth. What's even more frightening is that the R&D team of more than 4,000 people, who are still expanding, will raise the "threshold" of intelligence higher and higher. Continued desperate running is to win a bigger lead.
In contrast, throughout 2021, He Xiaopeng, as the founder, frequently appeared in major talk shows, bringing the most intuitive feeling to the outside world, that is, he also wanted to stand up.
After all, in the early days of entrepreneurship, compared with Li Bin and Li Xiang, the two "old cannons" who had been dealing with the automobile category for too long, He Xiaopeng was more like a "layman" who had just chosen to cross the border. Therefore, it is more necessary to have some auxiliary means to make the entire industry accept and know itself.
"Your personality is a mixture of wildness, romance and restraint."
For his latest comment, it comes from a CCTV interview program that was broadcast not long ago. Wu Bofan, a senior media person who was also at the scene, was blunt.
Indeed, the wild He Xiaopeng, when receiving the constant attack of the outside world to change the name, still firmly said, "Change the name, we will not change!" From another point of view, in another 5 years, another 10 years, another 20 years, the brand named after China, I believe it will go global, then China should have the confidence to go global and go out! ”
Romantic He Xiaopeng, after successively entering the field of flying cars and intelligent robots, can confidently express, "Today it is difficult to use an automobile company to define the Xiaopeng brand, we hope to use the exploration of science and technology to lead the future travel reform, become the explorer of future travel, this is Xiaopeng's new brand positioning." ”
The restrained He Xiaopeng, even though he has participated in enough interviews and activities, can still feel his slight nervousness, "I think there is no explanation, and it is the best answer." "The most painful thing for entrepreneurs is that no one can talk about it." Truth has become the most appropriate way to express it.
In my eyes, in the past year, he Xiaopeng really wants to stand in the persona, is that he knows how to "build a car" and knows how to face all problems with ease.
Not hurried, sharp point of view.
03
A battle that cannot be lost
"There is no such thing as absolute perfection in this world."
Xiao Peng, too. The previous length has given more affirmation and praise to this new force. Next, I want to talk objectively and fairly about the shortcomings and variables that exist in it.
First of all, as mentioned in the article "2022, "Wei Xiaoli" is an enemy of each other": into 2022, as "Wei Xiaoli" has announced new plans, the product sequence continues to expand, "Who will become the pin champion?" The topic is once again full of heat and attention.
From this analysis, if the Three Models of Xiaopeng G3i, Xiaopeng P7 and Xiaopeng P5 can be made to stabilize the monthly delivery volume of the three models on sale at around 15,000 units, then the annual delivery volume will reach 180,000 units.
The real delivery time of Xiaopeng G9, with reference to the spread rhythm of Xiaopeng P5 this year, will most likely be fixed in September. Referring to the Xiaopeng G3i, the Xiaopeng P7 will also complete a mid-term redesign, and the delivery time of the new version may be in July. The arrival of xiaopeng G9 can be counted as a net increment.
Taken together, Xiaopeng's overall annual delivery volume has the potential to reach a maximum of 220,000 vehicles.
But the problem is that all the above inferences are based on a very ideal environment, and the real situation is that weilai and ideals that missed the crown in 2021 will not be reduced, and they will play the latest "bottom card" in their hands. In contrast, several models that Xiaopeng really went by have officially debuted. Among them, the main salesman, Xiaopeng P7, will also face the pressure of switching between new and old models.
At the same time, in an interview earlier, He Xiaopeng said: "If anyone can give me a chip, I will invite him to drink." "This year, the bigger challenge is that the continuous decline of new energy subsidies and the rise in the price of raw materials for power batteries have not fallen." The increase in manufacturing costs is not so friendly to Xiaopeng, who already has the lowest gross profit margin in "Wei Xiaoli".
If you want to wear a crown, you will bear its weight. Fundamentally speaking, the new forces cannot keep the "crown sales" and guard, and what needs to be considered is how to strive to break through on the basis of sticking to the original advantages.
Secondly, I would like to talk about some views on Xiaopeng's "intelligent" route, especially the assisted driving sector.
There is no doubt that from XPILOT 2.5, to XPILOT 3.0, to XPILOT 3.5, and even to the higher XPILOT 4.0, it is foreseeable that there will be a very big jump in the functional experience level.
From the most basic L2 level assisted driving, to high-speed NGP, to urban NGP, until the realization of fully automated driving in the true sense of point to point, Xiaopeng's vision and ambition, there is no need to worry.
However, the only thing that is suspicious is that every stage of the jump requires a new model as a carrier. For example, because urban NGP requires lidar as a hardware blessing, it can only be implemented on the Xiaopeng P5, and the Xiaopeng P7 and Xiaopeng G3i, which do not have it, cannot be on the car.
To be fair, such a "cliff-like" update is not friendly to many old car owners. But from the perspective of car companies, it is a helpless thing. After all, xiaopeng at the moment does not have much energy to look back and take care of everything.
Behind it, it is obvious that you can feel the crazy catch-up of Weilai and Ideal, and it is only a matter of time before Tesla FSD enters China. Therefore, since Xiaopeng wants to sit firmly on the "intelligent" personnel and continue to strengthen the "moat", he needs to do far more than he imagined, and he must not take it lightly.
In addition, it is the Xiaopeng G9 released at the Guangzhou Auto Show last year.
Before we start, we need to understand a truth: whether it is Xiaopeng P7, Xiaopeng P5 or Xiaopeng G3i, the three together can contribute more than 15,000 delivery results in a single month. But without exception, the product itself has obvious "long and short board", so it is urgent to see a new car that can truly reflect the continuous improvement of the comprehensive strength of this new force.
So, Xiaopeng G9 is coming. Only from the current appearance of the appearance and some parameters of the response, basically are positive, but the "time to go public" has become a new problem.
If you are familiar enough with the development process of "Wei Xiaoli" along the way, you will clearly find that the current main sales models of the three, Weilai ES6, Xiaopeng P7, and Ideal ONE, whether it is product positioning, or target groups, or even the price after subsidies, are obviously differentiated.
As a bystander, I have never witnessed a head-on confrontation between the three. As everyone knows, at the Beijing Auto Show held in April this year, the Xiaopeng G9 will face the Weilai ES7 and the ideal X01, two SUVs that also represent the strongest strength of their respective brands. A hard-hitting contest is obviously unavoidable.
The advantages of the Xiaopeng G9 may be more focused on the maturity of intelligence and the lower price threshold of the final series. On the contrary, as a product that shoulders the heavy responsibility of "soaring", it seems that it will become a disadvantage in shaping the sense of luxury.
Taking this opportunity, it finally leads to a long-standing pain point - brand up.
Whether it is admitted or not, in the past few years, Xiaopeng is in a situation that the terminal must face, that is, the positioning of the brand itself and the impression it brings to the terminal consumers, which is slightly lower than that of the other two new forces head echelon members. The reason for this result is multi-dimensionality.
The final result is that without strong support at the brand level, even if the product itself is good, it is difficult to obtain a higher premium. Therefore, it can be seen that in the past year, Xiaopeng has made many efforts to renew its brand. It knows that this is the biggest obstacle to qualitative change.
This year, selling the Xiaopeng G9 will only be a branch of the brand upwards. More often, Xiaopeng needs to consider how to fill other branches. Perhaps, the launch of the Benchmark WEILAI ET7 Xiaopeng P9? Designing a high-end pure electric MPV? Or is it the innovation of the entire service and after-sales system?
At the end of the article, I suddenly wanted to use a paragraph written by Li Xiang, the founder of Ideal Car, located on his personal Weibo, as the end of this year-end inventory.
"In the past six or seven years in China, there have been many entrepreneurs in smart electric vehicles, more than 300 and less than 10 left, and the three Internet laymen have become the new forces in which sales are running in front, rather than those senior entrepreneurs in the automotive industry, the core reason is that Li Bin, He Xiaopeng, and Li want to control the rhythm and exert their strength as serial entrepreneurs."
Indeed, from the initial skeptics' "electric three fools" to the current opinion leaders of the entire new energy industry, you can say that the bloom of the three new forces has a certain element of luck, but more is still all its efforts.
And what I know is: in 2021, Xiaopeng is not yet a winner; in 2022, the ruthless knockout round continues...