Author 丨 Cui Liwen
Responsible editor 丨 Cui Liwen
Edit 丨 Chic
If the resumption of production at the Shanghai plant continues to be delayed, the final sales performance in April may be worse than the "waist cut".
Just the day before yesterday, with the release of the terminal data of the Association of Automobile Associations, Tesla's sales in China in March also surfaced.
Yes, as expected, in January and February, after its Shanghai plant needed to share part of its energy to export and ensure the supply of overseas markets, in March, all the production capacity of the American new energy vehicle company was basically all in the domestic market, and a total of 65,184 new cars were sold (exports were only 60 units), an increase of 85% year-on-year.
What's even more frightening is that since September last year, Tesla's monthly sales have reached 56,006, 54,391, 52,859, 70,847, 59,845, 56,515, and 65,184 just handed over in the past Three months.
It can be clearly seen from this that the sale of 50,000 new cars in a single month has basically become Tesla's "normal operation" in China.
Throughout the first quarter, Tesla's cumulative sales in China were 181,544 units. As a reference, the five new forces that have achieved large-scale delivery at present have built cars, and the quarterly deliveries of Xiaopeng, Ideal, Nezha, Zero Run, and Weilai are added together, and they are not worth one of them.
At the same time, at the beginning of this month, Tesla officially announced its global production and sales report card in the first quarter, delivering a total of 310,048 new cars, an increase of 68% over last year. In terms of specific models, the Model 3 and Model Y delivered a total of 295,324 new vehicles.
Simply calculated, the Share of the Chinese market in its overall sales has successfully exceeded half, reaching 58.55%, or even approaching the 60% mark.
Obviously, the numbers do not lie, and the task and importance of the previous section in Tesla's strategic map are needless to say.
However, with the official announcement of Tesla's sales in China in March, many hidden worries can also be seen. First of all, it must be that it has failed to break through the much-anticipated 70,000-vehicle mark.
As for the reason, it is very simple.
As the epidemic in Shanghai continues to rage, as early as mid-March, Tesla's Shanghai factory has stopped production for two days due to relevant epidemic prevention requirements.
However, half a month later, because the overall control situation did not improve, its official announcement was once again from March 28 to April 2, the factory once again stopped production and carried out strict sealing and control management.
In this regard, the relevant person in charge of Tesla China responded, "We will always adhere to the main responsibility of epidemic prevention and control, strictly implement the relevant requirements of epidemic prevention and control, and adjust factory work at any time according to policies." ”
After further understanding, it was learned that as of now, Tesla employees have not received the news of when to resume production. According to the current trend, it seems that it will continue to extend for some time.
As for how long it will be, there is still no definite answer.
From this rough estimate, a total of six days of production was stopped in March, and more than 10 days were stopped in April, for a total of more than 16 days.
If the current Shanghai factory produces 6,000 Model 3s and 10,000 Model Ys per week as a measure, then this has been more than half a month, Tesla has lost more than 32,000 new cars, and it is still accumulating.
So as the title of the article says, new questions have emerged: Will Tesla's sales in China be "slashed" in April?
From my personal point of view, assuming that in the second half of April, its Shanghai factory can resume work smoothly, with full horsepower and catching up, there will be a sharp decline in the month-on-month period, which is basically a nail in the coffin.
On the contrary, if the start of construction continues to be delayed, or even the entire month of April can not return to normal levels of production, then the final sales may be worse than the "waist cut".
"The first quarter was a very difficult time due to factors such as supply chain disruptions in China as well as the pandemic."
In fact, as early as the release of Tesla's global production and sales results in the first quarter, Musk had expressed his views on the plight of the Shanghai factory. But over time, combined with the current environment, the challenges that need to be faced and the problems that must be solved may be far beyond his imagination.
When will work resume? When will capacity return to normal? What is the final impact on sales in China throughout the year? Question after question after question awaits answers.
Fortunately, just a few days ago, Tesla's latest gigafactory near Austin Airport in Texas officially opened.
Coupled with the recently commissioned Plant in Berlin, Germany, the total production capacity of its four manufacturing bases that have been put into use in 2022 has exceeded 2 million units.
Combined with the 2021 shareholders' meeting, Musk has said that next, as long as the chip shortage problem can be alleviated as soon as possible, Tesla can maintain more than 50% growth at least for a long period of time.
Based on last year's production and sales of 930,000 vehicles, Tesla's new sales target this year is expected to reach 1.5 million units.
In contrast to the two sides, it can be said that it is completely surplus.
At the same time, opening the current Tesla China official website can see that the pick-up cycle of ordering model 3 versions has been as long as 20-24 weeks.
The model Y rear-wheel drive version has a slightly shorter pick-up cycle of 10-14 weeks, while the long-endurance and performance version of the Model Y have a pick-up cycle of 16-20 weeks and 12-16 weeks, respectively.
In other words, the sharp increase in car prices caused by the suspension of production in the Shanghai factory and the crazy fluctuation of raw material prices does not seem to have greatly hindered the end consumers, and the "enthusiasm" for the purchase of products sold by the US new energy vehicle company has become more and more intense.
Therefore, even if the sales volume in China in April can basically be determined to encounter a temporary "Waterloo", but the timeline will be extended, and when the epidemic situation improves, Tesla will probably still lose this part of the loss in the second half of the year and continue to catch up.
Boldly predict that in the Chinese market, the final sales volume will still be able to break through the 700,000-vehicle mark. The possibility of touching the milestone of 1.5 million new cars sold throughout the year is also high.
"The only person who can stop Tesla's progress may be himself."
I believe that if you have to give this American new energy vehicle company a definition of the current development momentum, the above sentence is inexplicably appropriate.
At the end of the article, pulling the line of sight back to the opening event of the Texas factory in the United States, Musk promised that tesla will take this as a starting point, and Tesla's ultimate goal is to achieve a single-year share of more than 20% of the global automotive market.
For reference, if more than 80 million new cars were sold worldwide in 2021, its "passing line" was set at 16 million.
Next year, with the continuous mass production and delivery of three new cars, Cyberruck, Roadster 2 and Semi, a greater "harvest" has slowly begun.
As a bystander, what you can do is to quietly witness the changes that will set off the entire automotive industry, "bloody rain and wind".
The general trend is already irreversible...
Cui Liwen
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