The mainstream car market is undergoing two changes at the same time: one is that the overall share continues to decline, and the product ideas for conservative users in the past have obviously lagged behind the rapid iteration of the consumer market; the second is that the proportion of high-priced models is increasing, especially when the car market is sluggish for objective reasons, the potential consumer demand for low- and medium-priced models will be further suppressed.
Under such changes, some brands are seizing opportunities, such as independent brands that continue to rise with technological innovation that is closer to consumer demand, such as Japanese brands that firmly hold pragmatic users with functionality at medium and high prices. Some brands are at greater risk, such as Volkswagen, which is facing severe challenges at both the supply and demand ends.
Sales: The market is sinking and the price is higher
1. Sales volume of mainstream vehicles in March
New car sales in the mainstream car market in March were 935,130 units, down 16.9% year-on-year, accounting for 63.4% of the passenger car market's new car share, and have continued to decline since the beginning of the year. From January to March, the cumulative sales of new vehicles in the mainstream car market were 3,275,452 units, down 11.1% year-on-year, and the decline was faster than the market as a whole.
From the perspective of power type, the proportion of fuel vehicles in the mainstream car market has increased from nearly 90% in January to about 80% in February, and less than 70% by March. However, the fastest growing share is not a hybrid car or plug-in hybrid vehicle that is generally considered to be an iterative fuel vehicle, but a pure electric vehicle. In March, the proportion of pure electric vehicles in the mainstream car market has been close to 15%, and among them, independent brands occupy an absolute share advantage, especially in the high-end mainstream car market, relying on pure electric vehicles to achieve the step of brand value and consumer population has become the consensus of independent brands.
2. Share by city line level and price segment
According to the division of urban line levels, consumption power returned to medium and high-tier cities after the Spring Festival, so that the sales volume of first- and second-tier cities increased by 6 percentage points compared with February. But then, as the consumption of first-tier cities and new first-tier cities falls into a trough due to the epidemic, mainstream car consumers who are mostly conservative groups, especially mainstream car consumers of joint venture brands, will be most affected, which may make the proportion of mainstream car consumption in high-tier cities continue to decline.
According to the price segment, the market share of mainstream cars above 200,000 yuan increased by 3.7 percentage points compared with February. Under the overall weakness of consumption in the automobile market, the proportion of medium and high-priced models is expected to further increase in the next few months.
3. Sales of models in price segments
In the range below 100,000 yuan, Emgrand, a new and old one, has gradually opened up the sales gap with Yidong PLUS. The new SUVs such as Auchan X5 and Wuling Star, which are more stylish in design and have a higher level of intelligent interconnection, have replaced the Haval M6 and Vision X6 SUVs repackaged from the old platform.
In the range of 100,000-200,000 yuan, the two camps of joint venture brand car and independent brand SUV have changed. Song PLUS completely disrupted the original Haval H6, Changan CS75, Boyue independent brand mainstream SUV three pattern, and in the long run will accelerate the popularity of hybrid, plug-in hybrid in the market segment. The popular mainstream joint venture car has fallen by at least 20% this year, and the highest is more than 50%. After Qin PLUS sales have been second only to Xuanyi and Langyi, including Emgrand L Thor Hi · X, including independent plug-in mixed family cars, will get a larger market space.
In the range of 200,000-250,000 yuan, the north and south Volkswagen in Jilin and Shanghai are inferior to the Japanese in terms of product volume, and the epidemic in this round will aggravate this phenomenon, and Toyota and Honda's medium-sized cars and mainstream SUVs will continue to occupy the forefront of the list. In addition, in addition to the tank 300 into the mainstream joint venture SUV occupied by the market, BYD Han also has a stable performance in the advantageous price segment of the joint venture mid-size car.
In the range of more than 250,000 yuan, the Japanese large-size SUVs and MPVs have an unshakable advantage in the mainstream car market, while Volkswagen, which traditionally has the premium advantage of the joint venture brand, has been completely lost in the high price segment, and the original potential consumers have basically shifted to luxury brands.
Event: Diversification of independent brand new energy tracks
1. Intensive listing of hybrid models of independent brands
Models under the three major hybrid systems of BYD DM-i, Geely Raytheon and Great Wall DHT have begun to enter an intensive listing cycle. BYD chose to spread dm-i plug-in hybrid to the whole market segment, and derived the model of marine network to maximize channel coverage, while Geely and Great Wall are two-line layout hybrid and plug-in hybrid. Geely has launched hybrid and plug-in hybrid on the Two models of Xingyue L and Emgrand L, and the GREAT Wall DHT has focused on the wei brand with higher positioning due to multi-brand, production capacity distribution and other reasons.
In terms of scale, BYD has put plug-in hybrid action as the main source of its sales, and Geely's launch strategy is similar to BYD's. The Great Wall has chosen to abandon the low-end and achieve brand upwards with DHT models on the Haval and Wei brand, so the product positioning is generally higher. However, in any case, the hybrid model is another weight for the head independent brand to further enhance the brand value and achieve the same price competition with the joint venture brand, and it is also one of the tracks for the independent brand to achieve overtaking with new energy.
2. The M5 sold nearly 3,000 units for the first time
The first large-scale delivery of the Q&I M5 in March, with terminal sales of 2,870 units, has significantly improved compared with the RaceRis SF5, which also proves that Huawei's higher participation is positive for vehicle sales.
Huawei's internal attitude towards the automotive business can be divided into two major factions: one is to participate in the new product development of mainstream car companies as a supplier of incremental components of vehicles, the main entity is the intelligent driving of the vehicle, intelligent cockpit and other complete solutions to solve the intelligent solution; the other is based on the transformation of mature vehicles, the main entity is the intelligent cockpit and Huawei's marketing and service channels. Huawei HI (Polar Fox, Avita, GAC) belongs to the former, and the Q&I M5 belongs to the latter.
But from the current point of view, there is no Huawei intelligent driving component of the latter, because it is easier to land, in the short term can quickly make up for the loss of revenue of Huawei's consumer business, and has been supported by more resources, if you can use Huawei's strong marketing and channel capabilities, with the "Huawei Car" consumer mental propaganda, Q&I M5 and subsequent Q&I M7 and other models, it is possible to break through the controversy and gain higher market share.
Trend: The joint venture brand base market is being leveraged
1. The risk of the high-end market of the public has increased
North and South Volkswagen's mid-to-high-end models will face severe challenges at both the supply and demand ends. On the demand side, the high-end SUVs and MPVs of Liangtian have completely occupied the consumer mind, and models such as Highlander, Xena, Crown Land, Odyssey/Alexon, etc., are hot models in the price segment of more than 250,000 yuan, and the terminal price is extremely strong, and some models even increase prices for a long time. In the high-end market, only the remaining Tuang is still supporting, and the sales decline in the first quarter of this year is nearly 40%. On the supply side, the epidemics in Changchun and Shanghai have also had a huge impact on the production of the masses in the north and south.
The reason is that the high-end models of Japanese mainstream brands emphasize functionality, precipitate large family users who pay attention to functionality and practicality, and become the preferred model for multi-population and all-scenario travel. And Volkswagen's high-end models often emphasize flagship, luxury, and premium, this group of potential users are now basically shifting to luxury brands, high-end new power brands, and the brand premium ability that Volkswagen brands once boasted of is now not enough to leave this group of users.
Mainstream Japanese brands have abandoned cars in the mid-to-high-end market and focused on more pragmatic SUVs and MPVs with a dual-car strategy, which has been effective in the reform period of joint venture brands. The volkswagen brand is subject to the dilemma of supply and demand, and the risk in the high-end market is further increased, which will also have a considerable impact on the brand value.
2. The share of mainstream joint venture car rentals has accelerated
The sales volume of the joint venture brand compact car in the first quarter of this year fell by 26.5% year-on-year, and the decline of the eight most popular mainstream joint venture family cars was as high as 34.2%. Among them, the Civic with the lowest decline also reached 16.1%, while sagittarius, Yinglang and Bora, which had the most serious decline, all exceeded 40%. The independent brand car with stronger quality in all aspects, as well as some new energy car with cross-border competition, are diverting the potential population of the joint venture car.
What remains in this market is still those consumers who are stable, conservative, and need to consider all aspects, and consumers who pursue personality have begun to flee. However, as the sales base of most joint venture brands, the compact car market does not allow any slip-ups. Therefore, before electric vehicles truly completely replace fuel vehicles, all joint venture brands hope that their hot-selling family cars can persist until the end of the internal combustion engine era, and then smoothly transition to the electric era.
The absolute volume of the mainstream joint venture car market is still huge, but every brand that is eyeing this market outside the wall is trying to tap the non-explicit needs of base disc consumers with completely different products.