Written by | Huang Zhi, Wu Xue
Edit | Yang Guang
Produced | Automotive Sankei
"It was a very lively car show." ——On April 20, an automobile practitioner sighed in the circle of friends.
If it were not for the intensive release of new cars in the BBA in the past two days, most auto people may have forgotten that the original April 21 was the official opening day of the Beijing Auto Show.
The "tall" new cars full of human beings' beautiful vision of future mobility may be able to brush the screen, but they cannot hide the anxiety of practitioners at the end of the automotive industry about the accelerated loss of customers and the shrinking market demand.
A bmw brand sales manager told the car Sankei: "Frankly speaking, in fact, the terminal price is going down, and the overall market is oversupplied." ”
And when we asked him for verification, not long ago, after some BMW models raised the official guidance price, when the terminal feedback, he seemed to be a little impatient to explain: "In fact, we are looking at the actual transaction price of the terminal, and the guidance price is just a reference." The implication is that this round of official price adjustments has not actually been transmitted to the terminal market.
If half a month ago, there were still many people who expected that the rise in car prices would spread from the new energy vehicle market to the fuel vehicle market, then the data of the car market terminal in this half month may completely break this possibility.
According to the latest car market data released by the Association of Passenger Vehicles in the second week of April, passenger car retail sales were 187,000 units, down 39% year-on-year, while the average retail sales in the first two weeks were 25,000 units, down 35% year-on-year, and terminal demand was worse than expected.
According to the data of the Automobile Dealers Association, less than 10% of dealers completed the task indicators for the month in March, and nearly 50% of the dealers only completed 70% of the task indicators. In fact, in March and April, many car companies have relaxed or cancelled the assessment of dealer tasks.
While the industry is still discussing whether Shanghai's resumption of work and production can be smoothly promoted, perhaps another question has been put in front of us: even if the resumption of work, can the car still be sold?
A boss of a dealer group replied to us: "It's hard..."
Behind the ellipsis is a kind of helplessness and unoptimity about future expectations.
NO.1
[ Mercedes-Benz BMW, rose a "lonely"]
"In April, the number of mercedes-benz and BMW stores fell by 40% month-on-month, and Audi fell by 60%." Sun Shaojun, founder of Car Fans, revealed to Auto Industry and Economics.
Although in the past two years, the diversion of new forces and electric vehicles has made luxury brands quite challenging, in the car market after the epidemic, the luxury car segment has always been thriving, and the market share has increased from about 15% in 2019 to 18% last year, and even exceeded 30% in first-tier cities.
Perhaps it is this confidence that makes luxury brand fuel vehicles take the lead in taking the step of price increase. On April 2, Mercedes-Benz announced the adjustment of the guidance price of many models, covering many imported models and domestic E-class and GLC class, as little as 1,000 yuan, more than Maybach GLS, up to 121,000 yuan.
Subsequently, BMW also followed up with the price adjustment, and some models adjusted the official guidance price in the name of restoring and increasing the configuration.
The reason is nothing more than the rise in raw materials. In fact, in overseas markets, BBA has completed a round of price increases, such as BMW in Europe to increase the price of all models by 3%, Mercedes-Benz in India to raise prices by 3%.
Indeed, the rising cost of raw materials is not only the lithium and cobalt required for batteries, but also the rise in steel, chips, and even the cost of maritime logistics.
However, unlike the "one-hundred-response" of electric vehicle price increases, the fuel vehicle market seems to have no one to follow. Even the price increase of Mercedes-Benz and BMW itself is "a lonely rise".
The sales manager of the BMW brand told The Auto Sankei that in addition to products with tight supply and demand such as the domestic X5L, the prices of most models have declined, and the fluctuation of terminal prices basically depends on the current supply and demand relationship.
The manager also said: "The demand for high-end models is actually declining, such as the 7 Series, X7 and so on. The original buying crowd of these models was biased towards business owners and businessmen, and now the epidemic has a greater impact on the income of this part of the people, so the demand for car purchases has also been downgraded. In addition, "some manufacturing workers, people who need loans to buy cars, will also abandon the plan to buy a car." ”
The sales of many Mercedes-Benz brands we visited also said that in addition to the reduction of terminal discounts due to the decline in output due to supply chain problems in the E-class, the preferential margins of other main sales models are actually greater.
For example, C-level, not only the official guidance price has not been adjusted, but also the terminal price has been further relaxed, a sales consultant said: "It is better to talk about the discount." ”
The imported models that are generally officially announced to have increased prices, especially high-end models, the transaction price of their own terminals is higher than the original guidance price, and after the official price adjustment, it actually did not push up the transaction price, "Now it is basically a parity in the sale, and even more things can be sent." ”
A salesman believes that the price increase of Mercedes-Benz is actually just to meet the price increase requirements of the headquarters in the world, and the price of the actual terminal best-selling models has not changed, and even he expressed his concern to us: "Many customers are a bit rhythmic by the media, thinking that the price has really increased." ”
Obviously, the weakness of terminal demand makes the price increase become nominal, and the pressure of rising costs does exist, but compared with losing money, car companies are more worried about the price increase will further lose the already sensitive customers.
Sun Shaojun shared with us another survey result of car fans, he said: "Do not overestimate the affordability of ordinary users for oil prices, oil prices for luxury car users are even more lethal than ordinary users." ”
And it seems to be true. Due to the rise in oil prices, Sigel, the owner of the BMW 5 Series last year, told us that he has recently been a little envious of his colleagues who drive the Tesla Model Y.
"Now a tank of oil is about 600 yuan, and people charge only a few dozen yuan at a time." At the current oil price, I really can't afford to drive a car, why not buy new energy, I really regret it. Before that, he often "laughed" at the colleague who needed to recharge at noon from time to time.
"The contrast between new energy vehicles and large-displacement luxury vehicles is very strong, and this trend has been seen from terminal stores." According to Sun Shaojun, since April, the number of traditional BBA users selling car replacements has increased significantly, and many people have switched to new energy because of the rising cost of cars.
A Xiaopeng automobile store manager confirmed this statement, he said: "There are Audi Q5, BMW 5 series customers who come to change cars, not necessarily really can't afford to repay the loan, but it is always good to have less pressure." And 5 series for 3 series, customer face is not going to pass, change the mid-end brand is more embarrassed, but change Xiaopeng can. ”
Many BBA users who originally planned to buy or are repaying loans have turned to new power brands because of the drastic changes in income, "spending half of the BBA money to buy Xiaopeng, there are inside, and the face does not fall." Selling the BBA and then buying Xiaopeng, the pressure of raising a car is much less, and many customers can also find a sum of money to save the emergency. ”
As BMW's sales manager said, this wheel of the car market adjustment, just need the basic disk is still there, but the derivative impact of the epidemic will lead to a contraction in the demand for car purchases other than just need users. The original loan to buy a car, may now give up the purchase of a car, the original purchase of luxury cars, now buy a joint venture car. In addition to the just needs of the really rich and affordable, the demand in the middle of the car market has been greatly squeezed.
NO.2
[Not much inventory, less in-store]
If you say, under the conversion of supply and demand, the round of price increases of Mercedes-Benz and BMW is slightly embarrassing. Then other car companies did not follow up, obviously for the same reason.
Even compared with Mercedes-Benz and BMW, the situation of some ordinary joint venture brands may be even more difficult.
"Luxury brands are still strong in their ability to resist risks, such as the original 300,000, now 100,000, there is still money to be made, but two days ago to the next Honda store to talk to them, they are particularly stressed." Said the BMW sales manager.
According to the statistics of car fans, in early April, the terminal entry volume of Volkswagen and Nissan fell by 70% compared with the end of March, and honda's entry volume fell by 60%. A 4S store owner of a second-tier joint venture brand told us that they "are almost the same data."
A slightly snubbed 4S shop
When survival is already challenging, price increases and profits are clearly no longer the most pressing things.
At the beginning of the price increase of Mercedes-Benz and BMW, Autosemblika asked the marketing leaders of many joint ventures and independent brands whether there was a price increase plan next, but the answer was almost "no".
"The recent signal has been very bad, and now a lot of people don't buy a car." A marketing leader of his own brand added.
Not long ago, a topic of "why contemporary young people are reluctant to change their mobile phones" on the Internet triggered a heated discussion, and in the comments below the topic, many people said that "young people are not only unwilling to change mobile phones, but also unwilling to buy a car."
The reason why they are reluctant to buy a car, "oil prices are too high" and "no money" are the reasons for the highest frequency.
"I was planning to buy a car in March, but I gave up after knowing that the price of oil had risen. At noon, I chatted with my colleagues, and my colleagues said that they didn't dare to step on the accelerator now, and they had to rely on external forces to stop. Some netizens said.
Xiao He, another girl who works in a beauty salon, gave up her original car purchase plan because of the fluctuation of income caused by the epidemic. "We have repeated epidemics here, especially in the last two months, and the normal working time is only 20 days. Stores often can't open their doors, and even if they open doors, there are not many people, and the income impact is too great. After much deliberation, I plan not to buy a car this year, there are too many impossible possibilities during the epidemic. ”
The change in the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods also reflects the decline in purchasing demand.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on April 18, from January to March, the total retail sales of domestic consumer goods 108659 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3% year-on-year. Among them, in March, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 3.5% year-on-year. It is worth noting that this is also the first time since August 2020 that there has been negative growth.
When market demand falls, terminal prices naturally lose the favorable support for the rise. Auto Industry & Economics visited a number of 4S stores in the Beijing area, and almost all the sales staff said that the preferential policies were not much different from before, and there was no plan to increase prices for the time being.
In fact, in the terminal market, the pressure on sales is even spreading, even the best Performing Japanese brands in the past, even if they are new forces that have been in the limelight.
For example, the Toyota Camry, which once had no preferential treatment last year, now has a maximum discount of 18,000 yuan, making manufacturers have to come forward to control prices to stabilize terminal prices, avoid "cannibalism" in dealer stores, and then make up for dealers' losses through other means.
Another new power brand's store in Beijing, the current order volume compared to the fourth quarter of last year is almost waist,000, and even back to the state of early 2020, and the passenger flow has also declined. Although it is not possible to judge whether it is due to the reduction of terminal demand, the rise in car prices and the continuous extension of the waiting car cycle have indeed made many potential consumers retreat.
Many 4S stores have few customers
This round of epidemic has spread almost the entire eastern provinces and cities, Shanghai and Jilin have almost stopped, and many other areas have also had social blockades, and the resulting logistics and supply chain impact has been transmitted to more provinces and cities, and has also affected the market where China's automobile consumption is the most important.
If there are no cars in the dealer library now, in fact, it is not in short supply, but logistics blockade, and even some practitioners bluntly say: "The blockade anti-epidemic is a big killer for the economy, the overall car market will have a cliff-like decline, and the production in the second half of the year will not be sold." ”
"If this continues, it is estimated that there will be a stimulus policy recently," Sun Shaojun said. NO.3
[ Where are the new opportunities? ]
The Xiaopeng store in the previous article said: "In the first quarter of this year, we have been losing money, and we can only hope for the growth of the new energy market, which gives us some opportunities." ”
Where are the opportunities?
In fact, history is sometimes a similar repetition, and when the Russo-Ukrainian War pushed oil prices to a high point again, it is better to go back to the 1970s.
Two oil crises, also caused by the war, led to a sharp decline in global automobile production and sales, but gave Japanese cars the opportunity to rise. In 1970, Honda sold only 1,300 units in the United States, but after the first oil crisis, that number jumped to 100,000.
Along with the oil crisis, there is also the Clean Air Act passed by the United States, which has made a very strict limit on the pollutant emissions of automobiles, requiring a 90% reduction in 5 years, which on the one hand has brought a huge blow to the three giants of the United States, and on the other hand, it has also completely transformed them. Since then, the load-bearing body and front-drive design have gradually become the mainstream of the market.
Although the rise in oil prices can not yet be called a new "oil crisis", but the continued high volatility, superimposed epidemic and economic slowdown, as well as the momentum of new energy vehicles is fierce, the market's expectations for the future high oil prices and the search for alternative products have actually begun to form.
This is why, in the past few years, the same ups and downs in oil prices have not stirred consumers' sensitive nerves as this time.
This makes the penetration speed of new energy vehicles increase again compared with last year, and even in the first quarter, it achieved the year-end target given by many people. In the past March, there were 4 new energy vehicles in the top 10 terminal sales, pure electric vehicles even covered the top 3, and 4 traditional fuel vehicles also provided hybrid versions.
In the interview of automotive industry and economics, a number of front-line practitioners also confirmed this trend: users are rapidly flowing to new energy. And whoever can carry these new needs will be able to gain a foothold in the turmoil.
NO.4
[ Write at the end]
The postponement of the Beijing Auto Show still left its last mark on April.
Whether it's the battle where Xia Yiping and Li want to install the lidar, or the alien steering wheel and steering-by-wire of the Lexus RZ, or the vision of the mobile space presented by the Audi urbansphere concept car, or the big screen of the theater in the rear row of the new BMW 7 Series... The surprises in the automotive circle continue.
But what may be as fast as these changes is the end market.
The speed of epidemic relief, macroeconomics, domestic consumption, and chip supply recovery rate are all lower than expected, but the price of raw materials has risen more than expected.
Is it a price increase to protect profits, or is it not a price increase to protect sales? This is a very tangled choice for every car company.
But now it seems that various manufacturers are tilting their resources to the volume of models, compared with the short-term profit pressure, can ensure the normal operation of the automobile industry chain, the bottom of the guarantee, may be a more important thing.
Things are already bad, hopefully it won't get any worse.
Article from: Automotive Sankei
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