Written by | Zhao Lingwei
Edit | Yang Guang
Produced | Automotive Sankei
The challenges encountered by the new energy automobile industry have been upgraded again. Repeated epidemics, anxious capital markets, international conditions and geopolitics have cast a shadow over it. There is no doubt that the transition of the automotive industry to smart electric is a correct but difficult step, and automotive industry and economy will document this special period from different perspectives and launch a series of reports.
"We are like a small animal watching an elephant being bitten by a bloodthirsty person, unable to give any help except to frighten."
The peers of "China's nickel king" Qingshan Holdings watched the boss being hunted by foreign investors taking advantage of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and trembled.
In the face of war, only money never sleeps.
Russian Nickel was "expelled from nickel" for some reasons, so that the major customer of Russian nickel in the futures market, Tsingshan Holdings, may face a short order of 200,000 tons (unconfirmed).
The next move of foreign capital and the number of spot that Tsingshan Holdings can free up are still pending, and the price of nickel may remain high until then. This has led to the high cost of nickel-based power batteries, and foreign research institutions have calculated that the current soaring prices mean that the average cost of each electric vehicle has increased by $1,000.
The shadow of the lack of cores has not faded, and there are more and more shortages of goods and inflated prices in the supply chain of new energy vehicles.
The panic about various magical realities spread to the stock trading market, which is completely opposite to the trend of raw material prices, new energy vehicle companies and power battery companies have taken a sharp turn from the market of repeated highs in previous years, falling to the bottom and unable to rebound.
Such a chain of cause and effect was buried deep in prosperity during the years of rapid development of the automobile market, and as the black swan of the epidemic and war took off, the dangerous gray rhinoceros also ran here.
NO.1
[Resource Anxiety Amplified by Artillery Fire]
At this stage of the international situation, how tight are the ore resources?
Musk, who is loyal to first principles, once had a thesis on automobile manufacturing: every link of manufacturing can be completely reinvented, and only raw materials are the only limits.
"The ideal is that one end of the factory is a mine, and the other end produces cars."
Caught between the pandemic and the war, this only restriction has become the ceiling of the entire auto industry. At present, the price of nickel has broken through the mark of $100,000 per ton.
Also flying with nickel prices is lithium. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate continues to rise, and the recent quotation has exceeded 500,000 yuan / ton. The cost pressure of midstream battery factories is huge, and it is rumored that many domestic battery factories do not buy goods and do not accept orders to resist the soaring price of lithium carbonate.
Although this statement has been denied by many battery manufacturers, the rise in raw material prices has become a consensus of many parties.
Some of the raw materials that make up the cathode materials of lithium batteries, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and electrolytes, have increased by more than 400% compared with the beginning of this year. The sharp rise in raw material prices has also brought huge financial pressure to downstream enterprises.
As a result, car companies can only take the initiative to find new checks and balances.
Volkswagen invested in Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Geely and Fu Neng jointly built a battery factory, Great Wall hatched Hive Energy, BYD split The Fordy battery... Recently, Wei Xiaoli, the head of the new car, neatly invested in the power battery company Sunwoda.
The new energy vehicle industry chain has its own new way of playing, which is also the inevitable result of the supply chain not keeping up.
NO.2
[Not only is the core missing, it is more difficult for car companies this year than last year]
The shortage of mineral raw materials and chips is the same – the same supply chain has limited resources, and the same fate is in the hands of others.
"Isn't this year harder than last year?"
"Yes."
In the recent exchange between Auto Industry and Economics and the head of procurement of a car company, the busyness and pressure of the other party can be seen in the short reply.
Under the long-term impact of the epidemic, the global shortage of automotive chips began to appear at the end of 2020, and the epidemic in Malaysia in 2021 exacerbated the crisis.
Most industry insiders predict that it is unlikely that chips will resume supply this year. At present, the factory cycle of chips has been extended from 6 months to 12 months, and some categories may have to wait for 18 months.
Although the delivery time of the chip is extended, there has been no outrageous price increase in the price of the source, and most of the price increases are below 50%. However, after the hoarding and speculation of some agents and dealers in the market, the price of some chips for car companies has increased by more than 100 times. However, the vast majority of manufacturers will refuse to purchase these goods from unknown sources.
Chip resources posted by netizens
A car company executive reflected, "In the past, I didn't think that chips were so important, and I didn't think it was so difficult to purchase, and when I was educated by reality, everything was too late." ”
The technical leader of the car company who understands the chip is being dragged down by the "core".
The person in charge of research and development of the car company who was forced to leave said, "I summarized my work content from the second half of 2020 to 2021, that is, to talk to suppliers every day about feelings and chips." Only R&D to (chip) is possible to give, because R & D can talk to those chip factories about feelings, talk about the future I want to use a lot of your chips. Every day we talk about chips, and the whole work seems worthless."
In addition to the lack of cores, the shortage of other raw materials and price increases have also appeared on a large scale, "the pressure of car companies is increasing, and the uncertainty is increasing."
Euler brand CEO Dong Yudong admitted that after the subsidy decline and raw material prices increased in 2022, today's black cat will bear a loss of more than 10,000 yuan for every one sold.
A document titled "Report on the Serious Shortage of Sales Resources Caused by insufficient supply of core-related suppliers such as Bosch" shows that due to the continuous shortage of core-related parts, Changan Automobile's output continued to decline sharply in February, and the company's supply team is actively communicating solutions with Bosch and other suppliers.
Subsequently, Great Wall Motor announced that in mid-February 2022, its production decreased by 16.90% year-on-year, "mainly due to insufficient supply of body electronic stability systems (ESP) produced by Bosch Automotive Components (Suzhou) Co., Ltd."
Xu Daquan, executive vice president of Bosch China, has publicly stated that "the supply of chips in 2022 will still not be able to meet all the needs of OEMs, and this year's automobile production will still be largely constrained by chip supply." However, with the new production capacity of chip manufacturers, the shortage of chips is expected to be alleviated in the second half of the year."
NO.3
[Helplessness and confusion of dealers and users]
Dealers are under pressure from the C-end, "the market demand is there, but we have no goods to sell, rent, water and electricity, manpower are costs, lose money every day, and now look forward to the company supplying goods in a timely manner."
According to the situation of the 4S store employee, the impact of raw material shortages is still expanding, "now the navigation screen is beginning to lack accessories."
"There are 20 new orders today, but only a few cars can be delivered, is this one or not?"
Dealers are confused, once the longest also only need a month to pick up the car, now because of the lack of core and lack of screen and other issues to drag on 2-3 months, can not take orders are trouble.
"Now almost every 10 orders in the store have 3-4 because of the delivery time of the chargeback, in this way the dealer cost can not cover at all, the withdrawal of the network, bankruptcy is not impossible."
Moreover, the price of his brand model has been fully increased, and dealers have to follow the price increase. However, even if consumers just need to accept the price increase, they may not be able to pick up the car in a short period of time.
According to CCTV Financial Report, the price of new energy vehicles rose at the beginning of this year, and the new forces of car manufacturing, Chinese brands, joint venture brands, and imported brands are all in the range of price increases, and the price increase ranges from 1% to 10%.
Since entering March, nearly 20 new energy vehicle companies have announced price increases, involving nearly 40 models.
More and more users on social media are wondering if buying a car is the right time.
On the one hand, it is worried that the price will continue to rise after the subsidy is completely cancelled in 2023, on the other hand, looking at the current situation of oil prices and battery prices rising due to the instability of the general environment, it is expected that the cost will be reduced after the situation turns, and the "conscience price reduction" of car companies.
NO.4
[Written at the end]
"We only hope that the manufacturer will deliver quickly", the supply chain flaps its out-of-control wings, and the operation of domestic car dealers begins to appear risky.
Manufacturers have no choice.
He Xiaopeng posted last year, "Pumping the core to cut off the supply is more bitter, and raising a glass to eliminate the sorrow is more worrying." Under pressure, many car companies have to choose to deliver semi-finished products first, and queue up with users to wait for the core.
Semi-finished products can at least be delivered, and those "waiting parties" who watch the price of cars and oil rise day by day can not win this time, and the internal and external factors are becoming more and more complicated.
Fortunately, some car companies have begun to make up for it.
Geely's automotive electronic chip developer Core Qing Technology has developed its first product, and recently FAW Group has also injected tens of billions of dollars into this company; new car-making tiantuan has passed out chip research and development plans; horizon and other technology companies have turned to chips; Tesla continues to increase the Size of Australian lithium ore, building his perfect car-making chain...
According to forecasts, as supply chain companies such as chips increase production capacity, the shortage of raw materials that begins next year may ease. The domestic key link of the car grade chip is expected to be mass-produced in 2024 at the earliest.
Intelligent electric vehicles have thoroughly sorted out the traditional automotive industry chain, first the transformation of the direct operation mode of the distribution end, and now under the crisis of guns, germs and steel, the importance of the supply chain has been revealed.
"Core Wasteland" warns in a fatal way that there are still loopholes in the traditional automotive industry chain, and car companies that can safely survive this period of crisis probably have to rethink the overall logic of the intelligent automotive industry chain.