Written by | Huang Zhi
Edit | Yang Guang
Produced | Automotive Sankei
On weekends, a BYD 4S store in Beijing's Fengtai District was crowded, and even at noon, there were several groups of customers watching cars around almost every show car.
Auto Sankei reporter and a car watching aunt talked, aunt said that she is ready to order Song Pro DM-i, she said: "I am driving a fuel car now, but recently the oil price has risen too much, can not afford to add oil, plug mix (hereinafter referred to as PHEV) to calculate down I think it is still quite cost-effective." ”
The panic of oil prices breaking 9 not only caused gas stations to queue up for a long time, but also made more consumers start to consider buying an electric car. However, the price of lithium carbonate and nickel, which rose with oil prices, triggered the largest round of price increases for electric vehicles.
Fortunately, the dilemma of the market has found a hybrid that saves fuel and can use less batteries.
"The cost of hybrid power is half or less than 1/4 of the cost of pure electric power, and it also dilutes the pressure on fuel prices in the market." In the view of Wang Ruiping, senior vice president of Geely Automobile Group, the increase in battery costs caused by the price increase of raw materials will increase the market weight of hybrids.
A recent by-one bydir expert meeting minutes circulating on the Internet shows that BYD's undelivered orders in hand have accumulated about 400,000, and the ratio of DM-i PHEV to pure electricity is 3:1. Compared with 2021, the ratio of PHEV to pure electricity in BYD's sales volume is 0.85:1, and the proportion of PHEV is increasing rapidly.
BYD 4S store in Wakashi
BYD's success has allowed more Chinese brands to see the opportunity of hybridization (especially PHEV).
The Great Wall Lemon DHT, Geely Thor Hi-X, Chang'an Blue Whale iDD, chery Kunpeng DHT followed, and high hopes were placed.
Wei brand CMO Qiao Xinyu recently said on social media: "Don't look at the current joint venture fuel sales, but if the current configuration and price are maintained, I dare to assert that in the face of a hybrid like latte DHT, there is no future for joint venture fuel." Welcome to punch in the face. ”
Geely Raytheon Power, which directly benchmarks technical standards against liangtian, has also always targeted the joint venture brand. Geely Automobile Group CEO Gan Jiayue told Auto Industry and Economics: "Thor PHEV and HEV are complementary to each other, the former is for new energy users, while the latter is more for fuel vehicle users. Through the three choices of fuel, HEV, PHEV, to meet the needs of different users. ”
BYD's market performance, and behind the technical route represented by the Great Wall and Geely, are actually Chinese brands that are growing in strength, launching an impact on the joint venture fuel vehicle system, relying on the advantages of PHEV to open up the core market.
NO.1
[ PHEV sales may increase by 200%]
According to traffic insurance data, in 2021, THE SALES OF PHEV MODELS EXCEEDED 430,000 VEHICLES, OF WHICH BYD ACCOUNTED MORE THAN HALF OF THE SHARE, AND THE EXTENDER (WHICH CAN ALSO BE CLASSIFIED AS PHEV) REPRESENTED BY IDEAL ONE, LANDO FREE, CYLIS SF5, ETC. (CAN ALSO BE CLASSIFIED AS PHEV) SALES OF ABOUT 100,000 VEHICLES CONSTITUTES THE BASIC MARKET PATTERN OF PHEV.
In 2022, BYD put forward a sales target of 1.2 million vehicles, of which PHEV and pure electricity accounted for half each, coupled with BYD Chairman and President Wang Chuanfu's latest forecast for the 35% penetration rate of new energy vehicles this year, we can try to do a math problem.
BYD alone is expected to sell 600,000 PHEV models, and if you consider its market share in 2021 and the growth rate of PHEV's share in recent months, the PHEV market will have at least 1.4 million units in 2022, an increase of more than 200% year-on-year. The rise in oil prices and the increase in the price of electric vehicles have also promoted the development of PHEV models to a certain extent.
Perhaps with the addition of new products, BYD's share will be diluted, but almost all the head Chinese brands will enter the pattern this year, which will significantly pull the market.
On the one hand, BYD has accelerated the popularization of DM-i to all products, and in just a few months since the beginning of the year, it has updated the Song MAX DM-i and Han DM-i.
On the other hand, after the Mocha DHT PHEV, Weipai will also focus its products on long-endurance PHEV models, including latte DHT PHEV, dream fulfillment and other products will be launched one after another.
Geely is also about to launch the first model of the large-mileage PHEV, the Emgrand L Hi X. Lin Jie, senior vice president of Geely Automobile Group, said that this year will bring more than 5 PHEV models equipped with "super mixed".
The Changan UNI-K PHEV equipped with the Blue Whale iDD system was launched in early January, and the UNI-V and the coupe code-named C385 are expected to provide iDD hybrid options.
Although these brands have not disclosed specific sales targets to us, the choice to launch a PHEV version in the main model shows the expectation of sales. And if we refer to the sales share of the "two fields" hybrid model, the increase brought by these new cars should be at least 100,000.
In addition, most of the CURRENTly listed PHEV models have recently been launched, and they are experiencing a period of sales climbing and entering a stable stage, and these models will also become the main sales force this year.
In the field of zengcheng, Yu Chengdong once said that Huawei will hit the sales target of 300,000 vehicles in 2022 with the M5 as the core, although it does not seem very realistic, but from the perspective of terminal sales feedback, if the production capacity can be released, it is not difficult to achieve the goal of at least 10,000 monthly sales.
The ideal second model, the L9, will be launched this year, which costs about 500,000 yuan, and it is said that it will be a large SUV that will be benchmarked against the BMW X7, and the monthly sales of about 5,000 may be a result that can be expected.
NO.2
[Joint venture fuel vehicle flat replacement]
When Qiao Xinyu's remarks were issued, there were also some doubtful voices on the Internet, "Some people say that we are over-marketing, the name of latte DHT is not good, and the sales volume is not as good as the joint venture." ”
But this has not shaken Wei brand's confidence in the strength of latte DHT products, and in Qiao Xinyu's view, "head-on" with the joint venture brand fuel vehicle and defeat them is the goal of its efforts.
This is by no means a "pipe dream", because in the terminal market, such a confrontation is also taking shape.
For example, the data on the amount of stores that can feedback the heat of the first-line market, BYD and the public show a clear correlation, and with the rise of BYD, the public is declining. For example, in the core market of traditional joint venture brands of 80,000-180,000 yuan, the market share of Chinese brands has increased by nearly 6 percentage points compared with a year ago, and BYD's sales ranking has risen from 11th to 4th.
In February this year, Song PLUS New Energy, with a guidance price of 15.28-20.58 million yuan, became the second hottest SUV after Tesla Model Y, which is also the first time that the independent brand new energy SUV surpassed the joint venture car to the top of the sales list. The Volkswagen Tiguan and Honda CR-V, which have dominated the list for many years, are no longer as strong as before.
In first-tier markets such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, although the share of Chinese brands is still low compared with the national market, compared with the share of 25.7% in 2020, it has increased significantly to 33.8% in 2021, and the share of new first-tier cities has also increased from 29.2% to 35.8%.
In the past, Chinese brands relied on the first-mover advantage of pure electric vehicles and have achieved "curve overtaking" in the new energy market, but due to the limitations of pure electric vehicle mileage and cost, it is still difficult to shake the core fuel vehicle market of joint venture brands.
Even if Langyi and Xuanyi look so "boring", because they can meet the car needs of a most typical Chinese consumer, they still firmly occupy the largest piece of cake in the market.
The independent brand relies on PHEV's "Tianji Horse Racing", which continues its local advantages in terms of cost and intelligence, and is accelerating the encroachment on this field.
NO.3
[ The inevitable choice under the "double carbon" target]
In addition to the active upward impact of the momentum, the other side of the rapid rollout of hybrids (especially PHEV) is the real pressure of regulations and policies.
Li Yizhong, former minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and president of the China Federation of Industrial Economics, said: "It is estimated that by 2030, fuel vehicles will still account for 80% of the mainland's car ownership, and improving the economic efficiency of fuel vehicles is still the main means to reduce carbon emissions." ”
Compared with tapping the last bit of potential of the internal combustion engine, "saving the country through the curve" through hybrid means is both economical and efficient. Lin Xiaozhe, vice president of Geely Automobile Group's Power Research Institute, presented a map of "China's LFCV Targets" (LFCV = low fuel consumption vehicles) and said: "Hybrid technology can meet the fuel consumption requirements of low fuel consumption vehicles with high cost performance. ”
If you stand at a higher perspective, from the perspective of the sustainable development and smooth transformation of the entire automotive industry chain, Li Gaolin, chief technology officer of Fordy Power Co., Ltd., also gave a reason, he said: "The promotion of hybrid power can achieve a soft landing of new energy vehicles, including the transition of the industrial chain, the continuation of the oil industry, the cultivation of consumer habits and the alleviation of mileage anxiety." ”
Li Gaolin explained that from the perspective of industrial development, the development of hybrid technology will drive the continuous upgrading and cost reduction of engines and motors, while the continuously reduced fuel consumption is in line with the trend of energy reduction on the one hand, and on the other hand, the oil industry can continue smoothly.
NO.4
[ Write at the end]
In the view of joint venture brands, whether it is HEV or PHEV, hybrid is not necessarily a good business, because it is not profitable.
Indeed, hybridization means more complex technology development and more costs of production materials than mature and large internal combustion engines, which may also explain why most joint venture brands have little interest in developing hybrids.
However, for Chinese brands, choosing a hybrid route based on PHEV means that the premium is increased and the core market of the joint venture brand is shaken, and the purpose of expanding the territory is greater than the short-term profit.
For example, BYD's 2021 annual report shows that by lowering the price of PHEV products, although "increasing revenue does not increase profits", it has an obvious effect on the expansion of market share.
Perhaps the rising price of raw materials, or Shanghai's policy of stopping the free green card of PHEV, will become an "uncertain" factor, but it can no longer stop the rise of PHEV.