Written by | Wu Xue
Edit | Yang Guang
Produced | Automotive Sankei
"There is no skill in saving money, it is all up to buy early."
A few weeks later, the passage circulating in the new energy vehicle market in March may also be staged in the fuel vehicle market.
After the new energy brand has completed a round of price increases, in early April, Mercedes-Benz and BMW successively announced that the price increase storm brought the price increase storm to the fuel vehicle market.
Although there are not many brands following up at present, this does not mean that the fuel vehicle market will stay out of this round of price fluctuations.
"It is expected that many cars will increase in price in the next month."
Not long ago, the head of marketing of an independent brand talked about the price trend of the next fuel vehicle market, and bluntly gave his own judgment.
NO.1
[Epidemic control, logistics under pressure]
If in the march of new energy vehicle price increases, the most frequently mentioned price increase is due to the increase in the price of battery packs caused by battery raw materials, then the reasons for the price increase of fuel vehicles this time are more complicated.
The first is a situation that has almost never happened before – the increase in logistics costs caused by the control of the epidemic.
"Originally, the price of logistics affected by diesel prices this year was rising, coupled with the epidemic control detour, the rise was even worse." Talking about the rise in logistics costs this time, the above-mentioned person in charge said slightly helplessly, "Even in some places, logistics vehicles cannot be parked, and can only be placed at nearby transfer stations." After placing it at the transfer station, it must be transported further in, which increases the secondary logistics cost. ”
According to the person in charge, under the influence of heavy influence, the logistics price of 9 cents per kilometer in the past has now risen to 1.7 yuan. According to his deduction, next, this price will soon break through two yuan.
In fact, the impact of today's epidemic control on the automotive industry is not only in the rise in logistics costs. Since the supply chain enterprises in Shanghai and the surrounding areas have not yet found a way to dynamically resume work and production, on the evening of April 14, He Xiaopeng, founder and chairman of Xiaopeng Motors, said in the circle of friends that if this problem is not solved, "all Chinese automakers may have to stop work and production in May."
In addition to the impact of the domestic epidemic, for today's car companies, "there are three core factors affecting costs, one is batteries, the other is steel, aluminum, copper and other bulk raw materials, and the third is chips." The person in charge said to the auto industry and economics.
The battery pack is only the "special need" of new energy models, and the latter two are the "necessary" things for every car.
Previously, China Merchants Securities said that since 2022, affected by the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine, commodity prices have continued to rise, of which the prices of copper and aluminum have hit a new high in nearly a decade.
Taking aluminum as an example, from the perspective of the spot price of A00 aluminum spot in the Yangtze River, from the first quarter of 2021 to the present, its price has been in an upward trend, and by the first quarter of this year, its month-on-month increase has been close to 10%, and the year-on-year increase is close to 30%.
Specific to automotive products, a brand has previously revealed to auto industry and economics that the cost of raw materials for a medium-sized SUV model listed in the middle of last year has risen by 30% compared with when it was just listed three quarters ago.
As for the price increase of chips, since the shortage of chips affected the automobile industry last year, there is still a growing trend.
"The chips of some autonomous driving modules have risen 400 times." According to the above-mentioned person in charge, the average number of chips used in a fuel vehicle is more than 400, "96% of these chips rely on imports, and the average increase is as high as 70%."
At the end of March, STMicroelectronics, one of the world's top five chip manufacturers, announced that it would increase prices for a full range of products, including automotive chips, from April 1. In addition to STMicroelectronics, Renesas, Toshiba and NXP have also previously decided to raise automotive chip prices by 10-20% in the second quarter. Chip dealers expect automotive MCUs to rise another 15-20% in the second quarter of 2022.
"It is definitely not just the price increase of the battery pack, but the cost of the entire upstream and downstream industry chain has risen sharply, and the car companies have been unable to eat it."
In fact, before Mercedes-Benz and BMW announced price increases in the domestic market, BBA (Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi) has begun a round of price increases in the international market:
Since April 1, Mercedes-Benz has started a price increase in the Indian market, with an increase range of less than 3%;
In Germany and Europe, BMW has raised the price of all models on sale by about 3%;
In february in the Australian market, Audi also raised the price of all models, from 600 Australian dollars (about 2860 yuan) to 7600 Australian dollars (about 36,000 yuan).
NO.2
[Discount reduction, or foregone conclusion]
However, although car companies have given many reasons to have to rise, at the monthly analysis meeting of the Association on April 11, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, still said that "the traditional fuel vehicle market will remain stable and there will be no large-scale increase in official guidance prices."
The reason for giving such a judgment, in Cui Dongshu's view, is mainly related to the sales model of fuel vehicles.
At present, most of the fuel vehicles in the Chinese market still use the traditional 4S store sales model - car companies will sell vehicles to dealers in batches, and then the dealers will retail, and for each car sold, dealers can get a certain rebate. This also means that car companies can cope with rising costs by shrinking the business policy of cooperation with dealers, and do not necessarily have to increase the official guidance price.
According to people familiar with the matter, when the rise in chip prices in the second half of last year affected the cost of bicycles, many Japanese car companies responded by shrinking business policies.
Unfortunately, this is not a one-size-fits-all solution for all car companies.
First of all, when the cost rises too much, it may be difficult for car companies to shrink their business policies to cover the increase.
Not long ago, Honda's chief financial officer Kohei Takeuchi told the media: "We usually digest the cost increase through internal efforts to cut costs, but now the increase is too big to digest." ”
Secondly, for some weak brands, the shrinking business policy is also likely to cause dissatisfaction among dealers. If the wholesale volume of dealers declines, it will be more difficult for the production of car companies to produce scale effects, and it will be more difficult to reduce costs, and then fall into a vicious circle.
In other words, this cost increase is also a process of accelerating the survival of the fittest in the automotive industry.
However, it is certain that whether the car company shrinks the business policy or increases the official price, the final result may be the terminal price increase.
According to the data of the Association of Automobile Associations, since the second half of last year, the terminal discounts in the automobile market have been in a state of contraction. By January and February this year, the promotion rate was about 9.7%, compared with about 12% in the same period last year.
NO.3
[Written at the end]
In the last round of new energy vehicle price increases, Li Xiang, founder and chairman of Ideal Automobile, revealed the logic behind when car companies announced price increases on Weibo.
Nowadays, the battery supply price in the second quarter has been negotiated, and according to the contract cycle between the car company and the supplier, after half a year, the new supply price negotiation will be opened.
"If the international situation does not change, then the prices of various raw materials will continue to rise, and after August, the next round of price increases may begin again," the person in charge predicted.