On the evening of March 7, the London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel price soared by more than 90% at one point, and finally closed at $50,300, an increase of 72.67%. The next day, when LME suspended nickel trading, the LME nickel price was fixed at 80,000 US dollars / ton, an increase of 66.40% during the day, and a cumulative increase of more than 170% in two days. (Before the deadline on March 9, nickel concept stocks fell sharply, and many stocks fell to a halt.) ）
As one of the important raw materials for lithium batteries, the soaring price of nickel did not bring the desired results, but the stock of the head company of lithium batteries in the Ningde era fell continuously.
Market rumors, because the Russian nickel was kicked out of the exchange can not be delivered, the largest domestic stainless steel enterprise Qingshan Holdings issued a 200,000 tons of nickel short order may not be able to hand over the spot, Swiss Glencore or the use of LME nickel trading to force Qingshan, and then claim its 60% equity in the Indonesian nickel mine, Qingshan Holdings floating loss will exceed 8 billion US dollars.
It is understood that in addition to the stainless steel industry, Another major industry of Tsingshan Holdings is the new energy industry chain, and its annual nickel iron production capacity reaches 300,000 tons, accounting for about 22% of the global nickel production capacity, known as "China's nickel king".
With the momentum of the new energy vehicle industry, the proportion of nickel in power batteries continues to increase, starting from 3.5% in 2015 to 16.1% by 2021, and the proportion is expected to be even 21.5% in 2022.
Therefore, as early as 2018, CATL joined hands with Tsingshan Holdings and Grammy with a total investment of about 1.85 billion yuan for the construction of Indonesia's annual output of 50,000 tons of high nickel power ternary materials.
The soaring nickel price and the pressure of high costs have given the upstream of new energy suppliers, which has also led to market concerns about the new energy sector, which is one of the reasons for the continuous decline of the new energy vehicle sector.
Affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the supply of nickel in Russia may disappear in the future, and the global nickel industry will turn from a balance of supply and demand to a shortage.
Although the LME issued an announcement that all transactions executed on the inter-office market and LMEselect on or after 00:00 UK time on 8 March 2022 (i.e. 8am Beijing time) were cancelled. However, at the price of trading on March 7, the price of nickel also exceeded $50,000 / ton.
Based on the 60kWh battery capacity of new energy vehicles, the nickel price will rise from $20,000 to $50,000, and the cost price will increase by 10,000 yuan.
In 2021, the annual installed capacity of CATL reached 93.68GWh, accounting for 32.1% of the global market share. The huge costs brought about by the soaring nickel price are not something that the Ningde era can bear, and it is bound to have a series of chain reactions on downstream enterprises and even consumers. For example, new energy companies such as BYD have raised the price of new energy vehicles on sale.
Before the price of nickel soared, other materials for lithium batteries continued to rise. Before the deadline, the battery-grade lithium carbonate sheet was 1,000 yuan / ton, and the average quotation rose to 503,500 yuan / ton; electrolytic cobalt rose by 7,500-12,500 yuan / ton, and lithium cobalt oxide rose by 35,000 yuan / ton.
The rise in the price of battery raw materials has forced automotive OEMs to make countermeasures, either throwing olive branches like other battery factories or building their own battery factories.
According to statistics, 20% of the domestic installed capacity of the Ningde era in 2021 comes from Tesla, and Tesla's 4680 battery may be mass-produced this year, and the Ningde era will also be affected.
Wei Xiaoli is also a major customer of the Ningde era, and Xiaopeng Automobile has also begun to purchase the battery of Ewell Lithium Energy, and the supplier of the 150kWh semi-solid-state battery pack that Weilai ET7 will use is Weilan New Energy.
In addition, new energy vehicles like Great Wall Motors are also using hive energy batteries, and BYD has its own blade batteries.
A few years ago, the Ningde era released a not-so-optimistic power exchange model and entered the power exchange track. "Renting instead of buying" can not only save the main engine factory from worrying about the cost of the battery, but also allow consumers to buy new energy vehicles at a lower price. Holding the "hidden danger" on yourself in exchange for the cooperation of the main engine factory, this may be Ning Wang's Plan B.