Written | Wen Yehao
Edit the | Wu Xianzhi
Three years ago, CATL established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Sichuan Times, which opened the curtain on Shu.
In the following years, the Ningde era never stopped the pace of attacking Shudi, the investment continued to increase, and the talent also shifted from Ningde to the southwest. Remember when the first phase of the Sichuan Times project was put into operation, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of the Ningde Times, once threatened that "the Sichuan era will surely become the World's Sichuan Era." ”
It will take time to honor the rhetoric, but in the context of the global lithium battery raw materials soaring, as strong as "Ning Wang" can not lie down to win.
In the process of the new energy revolution, Sichuan is not unknown, since 2015, Sichuan's lithium carbonate leader Tianqi Lithium industry has run wild with Jiangxi's Ganfeng lithium industry, relying on a series of radical play to extend the tentacles overseas. However, Tianqi Lithium has planted a big heel in the investment of Chile's lithium lake and has not yet recovered.
The competition in the lithium battery industry has long been white-hot, and the Ningde era into Shu is actually a figurative of the accelerated integration of the upstream industry.
Sweet first love
The relationship between Sichuan and the Ningde era is mutually reinforcing.
As early as the establishment of the Sichuan era, the local leader personally received Zeng Yuqun, which showed the high specifications. Yibin even said that when building a base in the Ningde era, it took 3 months to level 1,000 acres of land, and used thousands of machines to rush to work 24 hours a day, and finally took only 81 days to fulfill the promise early.
The logic behind it is very simple, Sichuan and the Ningde era need each other, and in 2018, Sichuan first proposed to "encourage and support qualified regional center cities to strive to create a sub-center of the province's economy". At the same time, the new energy track is a sunrise, NINGDE times as the premier power battery supplier, once settled, is bound to bring a wave of relevant talents and supporting enterprises inflow, thereby helping the region to adjust the industrial structure.
For power battery suppliers, the expansion site mostly follows two lines, one is closer to the upstream, the other is closer to the market, and the Ningde era focuses on the former. At present, CATL maintains 10 self-built bases and 5 joint venture bases of car companies, of which Yibin, Yichun and Qinghai bases correspond to the lithium ore resources of Sichuan, Jiangxi and Qinghai respectively.
Although Yibin is not the main production area of lithium mines, in order to attract the Ningde era, the local government has given a green light all the way, and promoted the landing and production of Tianyi Lithium industry with positive and efficient approval. Tianyi Lithium, as an upstream lithium resource company jointly established by Ningde Times and Tianhua Ultra-Clean and Changjiang Chendao, was once exclusively supplied to Ningde Times to offset the relatively weak shortcomings of Yibin lithium battery industry.
The confluence of the three rivers in Yibin has the Xiangjiaba Hydropower Station, the third largest hydropower station in China. For the Ningde era of heavy manufacturing, cheap hydropower resources help reduce production costs, and overseas new energy vehicle companies often require the use of green electricity in supplier assessment, and hydropower as a renewable energy just meets the relevant standards.
Based on this, since 2019, CATL has signed a series of power battery expansion projects with Yibin. It is reported that more than 80% of the energy in Yibin base comes from hydropower, and based on hydropower, the first "zero carbon factory" in the Ningde era can also be located in Yibin. Up to now, the local project has been planned to phase 10, with a planned capacity of up to 180GWh.
The Ningde era of entering the river also brought immediate results to the local area. In 2021, Yibin led the province with a GDP growth rate of 8.9%, and "going to Sichuan era to work" has even become a new trend of local employment, and Sichuan era has contributed the production capacity of "Ningwang" second only to the local base in Ningde.
However, when entering the river, it was the year when Ning Wang was fighting, and it was difficult for many players to have a voice. Nowadays, the power battery track is surrounded by heroes, LG New Energy, BYD, China Innovation Airlines and other old rivals have accelerated the layout, and the consumer battery track of Ewell Lithium Energy and Sunwoda are eager to share the cake from it.
Although LG New Energy, which ranks second in market share, faces overseas and cannot swallow the basic domestic disk of the Ningde era, BYD, which stopped the production of fuel vehicles last month, has shaken Ningwang Jiangshan.
Fierce Hamby bydy, fight away the King of Ning
King Ning was still the leader, but the country was in jeopardy.
According to the data of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance in February this year, CATL still firmly occupies the top spot in the industry, and global shipments surged by 192% year-on-year. But the same figure, BYD is as high as 411%, more than twice as high as in the Ningde era.
Reflected in the market share, from December last year to March this year, the domestic installed capacity of the Ningde era accounted for 55.6%, 50.24%, 48%, and 49.75%, respectively, which was generally in decline.
Production capacity was once the proudest card of the Ningde era, and now it is close to the threshold.
According to the statistics of lithium battery big data from the starting point, BYD, Hive Energy, and Zhongxin Airlines all have a production capacity target of more than 500GWh in 2025, compared with the target capacity advantage of 670GWh in the Ningde era.
The entire track is sparing no effort to expand production, the so-called large-scale manufacturing capacity of the Ningde era is bound to be diluted, and once the supply and demand relationship is reversed, the expansion will become a burden.
The prevalence of "two offerings" is the most convincing interpretation. In 2021, Xiaopeng Automobile introduced China Innovation Aviation, and BMW signed a contract with Ewell Lithium Energy. Some people are looking for "spare tires", and some people are directly "defecting", such as GAC New Energy, which will turn the first supplier into China New Air.
Among all competitors, BYD is one with competitive strength.
On the one hand, BYD has its own downstream car manufacturing business, and the production and sales of BYD's new energy vehicles exceeded 100,000 units in March this year, an increase of 333% year-on-year. On the other hand, BYD seems to be no longer satisfied with its own production and self-sales, borrowing the name of the subsidiary "Fudi" to go to the outside supply, the future "Fudi" or will be split into an independent power battery enterprise, then there will be a bloody storm in the track.
In addition, the three-yuan lithium battery that laid down the Jiangshan for King Ning now seems to no longer have magical powers.
With the rise of raw materials and the decline of subsidy policies, lithium iron phosphate batteries have shown cost-effective advantages. In addition, companies such as BYD and Zhongxin Airlines, which focus on lithium iron phosphate batteries, have raised their energy density, and the balance has shifted to lithium iron phosphate.
As of March, the domestic power battery production totaled 39.2GWh, of which the production of ternary batteries accounted for 39.7%, an increase of 167.3% year-on-year; lithium iron phosphate battery production accounted for 60.2%, an increase of 332.9%.
In order to recover the lost land, the Ningde era needs a deeper moat, and the only thing left for the King of Ning is nothing more than two shovels, one is to promote technological innovation and hope that it can bet on the next treasure, but it will take time to lay out energy storage and develop sodium-ion batteries. The other is to accelerate the integration of the industrial chain and raise profit margins, such as entering Shu.
Recover the jiangshan, or rely on Sichuan
With the gradual release of the production capacity of the crazy expansion of the power battery track, the increase in the market size of new energy vehicles is likely to not reach the expansion rate, when supply and demand will be reversed, and the excess capacity will no longer be convincing.
Although there are many downstream customers in the Ningde era, there is always a risk of the above-mentioned two supplies and escapes, so "Ning Wang" launched a power exchange service and fully liberalized, naturally it is to extend to the service binding downstream car companies when the supply is still in short supply, and prepare for future capacity overflow.
However, at that time, manufacturers with empty production capacity are likely to lower prices to ensure shipments, falling into a vicious circle of price wars. Therefore, only by increasing the profit margin in the present can we ensure that we will not fall in the price war in the future.
From 2019 to 2021, the gross profit margin of China Innovation Airlines in the Ningde era was 4.8%, 13.6% and 5.5% respectively, and although the gross profit margin of the Ningde era declined in the same period, the gross profit margin could still be maintained at around 25%.
This is largely due to the layout of the industrial chain in the Ningde era. For power battery companies in the midstream, the integration of upstream and downstream industrial chains is the gateway to reduce costs and increase profits.
According to incomplete statistics, in the past few years, CATL has participated in the investment of 10 battery material-related enterprises, covering raw material suppliers such as lithium ore and iron phosphate and manufacturers of cathode materials and electrolytes, most of which occurred in the past two years of the sharp increase in production in the "shouting slogan" type in the track.
In the past year, affected by the rise in raw material prices, power battery manufacturers have adjusted prices. Among the many raw materials with rising prices, lithium resources are the most prominent. The data shows that in the past year, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has soared by 480%, and the quotation has risen by 80% this year, and the soaring price of raw materials will naturally squeeze the profits of battery manufacturers.
Frankly speaking, lithium resources themselves are not scarce, and the cost is often concentrated on mining and refining. Before the soaring price of upstream raw materials, lithium carbonate quotations were not even enough to support mining costs, making the supply side lack elasticity. In the face of the demand generated by the sudden increase in sales of new energy vehicles, it is difficult for upstream enterprises to fully undertake in the short term, which naturally contributes to the soaring price of raw materials.
Lithium resources, which are the core raw materials of power batteries, are roughly divided into two categories, one is from lithium salt lakes, and the other is hard rock lithium ore. Salt lake lithium is still on the eve of the outbreak, and hard rock lithium ore represented by spodumene is a wider choice. According to data from Everbright Securities, spodumene accounts for more than half of global lithium salt production in 2020. The domestic spodumene ore is mainly distributed in Sichuan, with resource reserves of 760,000 tons, accounting for more than 50% of the national lithium ore.
From investment and expansion to government-enterprise coordination to take upstream raw material resources, the pace of the Ningde era conveys a clear main line, that is, to build a regional closed loop around upstream lithium ore resources, midstream battery bases, and downstream local car-making industries, so as to open up a gap with competitors.
Interestingly, second-tier manufacturers such as Guoxuan Hi-Tech and Zhongxin Airlines have also rushed to Yichun and Meishan to take land for lithium, and the Ningde era has also bought mines in Yichun to defend the city, and the game of new energy upstream is not inferior to the downstream.