Header image source | Visual China
Once again, the shareholders met to go to the roof.
On April 25, the A-share market was a miserable green, and the market fell below the 3,000-point mark, which was the fourth time that A-shares lost 3,000 points in the past three years. At the close of trading on April 28, the Shanghai Composite Index reported at 2975.48, still not returning above 3000 points. Discouraged shareholders flocked to social platforms to ridicule themselves, "Only the eyes are red", "send money to the main force during the day, and deliver food to the main force at night".
Netizens complain on social platforms Source: Douyin
This wave of decline was so fierce that even the "King of Ning" could not hold back.
As of the close of trading on April 28, the latest stock price of CATL was 387.50 yuan, down more than 40% from the highest point of 692 yuan per share, and the total market value shrank by about 700 billion yuan.
In fact, since entering December 2021, the stock price of CATL has fallen all the way. At the close of trading on April 20, the stock price of Catalonia times closed at 407 yuan / share, down 7.55% from the previous day, with a total market value of 948.66 billion yuan, falling down the trillion market value altar.
From the market value exceeding one trillion yuan in May 2021 to the loss of the trillion mark in April 2022, less than a year later, the stock K line of the Ningde era has drawn a thrilling roller coaster track.
Regarding the plunge in stock prices, it is predicted that the net profit of CATL in the first quarter of this year will be less than 5 billion yuan, or a sharp decline from the net profit of 8.1 billion yuan in the previous quarter. "Trillion valuations need to be supported by a compound growth rate of net profits, and once the performance does not meet expectations, investors will vote with their feet." An investor of the Ningde era analyzed to the Future Automobile Daily.
At the same time, factors such as the frequent price increase of raw materials for power batteries are also affecting the profit performance of the Ningde era.
Perhaps the data is really unable to get out of hand, on the evening of April 24, CATL issued an announcement that based on the principle of prudence, in order to ensure the quality of the preparation of a quarterly report and the accuracy of information disclosure, the disclosure time was postponed to April 30, after the catheter times a quarterly report was originally scheduled to be disclosed on April 28.
Negative sentiment spread, and the Ningde era seems to have entered the "black iron era" in the capital market, but there are still loyal believers firmly on the side of Ning Wang. On April 24, data treasure statistics show that ningde times received continuous return of funds from the north in April, and the net purchase of 2 billion yuan last week ranked first, and this is also the fifth consecutive week of net purchases of Ningde times.
For a time, the stock price trend of the Ningde era also became confusing.
Gross profit fell sharply, and King Ning plummeted
Not long ago, CATL released an annual report that can be called a "ceiling", but the stock price is still in the shock.
According to the 2021 financial report of CATL, its operating income in 2021 was 130.356 billion yuan, an increase of 159.06% year-on-year, breaking through the 100 billion mark for the first time; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 15.931 billion yuan, an increase of 185.34% year-on-year, which is also the highest profit level achieved since the listing of CATL in 2018.
Power battery business is still the main source of revenue of CATL, in 2021 NINGDE era power battery system sales of 116.71GWh, an increase of 162.56% year-on-year, contributed about 91.5 billion yuan of revenue for CATL era, accounting for 70% of total revenue. Lithium battery materials and energy storage systems contributed operating income of 15.5 billion yuan and 13.6 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 350.74% and 601.01% year-on-year, accounting for 12% and 10% of the total revenue, respectively.
Source: Future Automotive Daily
Revenue and profit remained encouraging, but gross margins fell to their lowest level in nearly five years. This may be the "behind-the-scenes culprit" of the ningde era's falling trillion market value.
According to the financial report, the gross profit margin of CATL was 26.28%, a decrease of 1.48 percentage points from last year, compared with the gross profit margin of 43.7% in 2016.
By business, the gross profit margin of the power battery system in 2021 of the Cataline era was 22.00%, a decrease of 4.56 percentage points; the gross profit margin of the energy storage system was 28.52%, a decrease of 7.51 percentage points; only the gross profit margin of lithium battery materials increased by 4.66 percentage points to 25.12%.
"The higher the company's market capitalization, the more stringent the capital market's scrutiny of the performance of the financial report data. The decline in gross margin means that the company's 'hematopoietic' ability has weakened, which has hit investors in the secondary market in the confidence of the NINGDE era. A brokerage source said in an analysis of the Future Auto Daily.
In the past year, the installed demand for power batteries has increased significantly, driving the price of lithium, cobalt, nickel and other resources in the upstream of the industrial chain. Compared with the same period last year, the market quotation of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose nearly 10 times; the market price of nickel rose from less than 150,000 yuan / ton at the end of last year to a maximum of more than 300,000 yuan / ton; the price of cobalt also nearly doubled in the same period.
In this wave of price increases, the Ningde era, which is as strong as the dragon, has not been able to stand alone. "Affected by the price changes of related raw materials and the supply and demand of the market, the purchase price and scale of the company's raw materials will also fluctuate to a certain extent." At the same time, the price of raw materials represented by lithium carbonate has risen sharply, which has put greater pressure on costs. CATL explained in its annual report.
At the same time that profitability became difficult, the power battery market began to show a situation of co-emergence, which also made it difficult for "Ning Wang" to maintain a monopoly.
"In recent years, while the lithium-ion battery market is developing rapidly, it has continuously attracted new entrants to participate in the competition through direct investment, industrial transformation or mergers and acquisitions, while existing power battery companies have also expanded their production capacity, and the market competition has become increasingly fierce, so the company's future business development will face a certain risk of intensified market competition." Concerns about the future competitive situation, the Ningde era is all written into the financial report without concealment.
Indeed, with the rise of power battery manufacturers such as Sunwoda and BYD, the leading aura of the Ningde era has also weakened. "Even though the power battery track has long slopes and thick snow, the situation of the group of heroes and heroes may shrink the market share occupied by the Ningde era in the future, and the market expectations have become correspondingly lower." The above-mentioned brokerage source analyzed.
In a short period of time, the Ningde era is deeply trapped in the vortex of rising prices of power battery raw materials and it is difficult to get out, and the hematopoiesis is weak. In the long run, the market share of the Ningde era is also in jeopardy. Under the double wrapping of declining gross profit margins and intensified market competition, Ning Wang, who is entangled in pessimism, may be difficult to reverse the decline.
Low margin call, or cut meat out of the market?
The stock price plummeted, Ning Wang was worried, and the retail investors were even more miserable.
According to the public information released by CATL, as of March 31, 2022, the total number of shareholders of CATL reached 140,000. On April 20, the market value of CATL evaporated by 77.529 billion yuan. This means that on April 20 alone, the 140,000 shareholders of CATL lost about 550,000 yuan per capita, which is equivalent to each shareholder losing a Porsche Macan.
Cutting meat and leaving the scene or holding the position, Lin Xi was extremely entangled, "every day in the brain like two little people fighting."
Ningde times delayed the release of the first quarter financial report, Lin Xi always felt that it was not a good sign, "Delayed release on the cusp of the storm, it must be a poor performance of the first quarter financial report." ”
Source: Courtesy of respondents
In fact, Lindsey's speculation is not unfounded. Combined with the power battery market environment, the price increase of power battery raw materials has not been alleviated this year, which means that the gross profit margin of the Ningde era will continue to decline; at the same time, affected by the epidemic, the Shanghai Lingang factory of the Ningde era has also stopped production for a short time, which will naturally affect its market performance. "It is expected that there will be another round of decline after the release of the financial report of the Ningde times." Lin xi estimated.
Even so, there are still investors who firmly believe in the strength of the Ningde era. Oriental wealth data show that on April 27, the net inflow of Ningde era was 2.329 billion yuan, of which retail households inflowed 1019 million yuan, middle households inflowed 169 million yuan, large households inflowed 1.068 billion yuan, and super-large households inflowed 1.081 billion yuan (turnover of 1 million is super-large households).
This is also the 15th consecutive day that cataline times has received positive inflows of funds since April 6.
"Success or failure is here." At the end of December last year, he bought 100 shares of Ningde era at a high of 576 yuan, and on April 22, he bought 100 shares of Ningde era shares at a price of 420 yuan per share. Qianduoduo, who holds 200 shares, plans to liquidate his position before the annual report of CATL next year. "Buying at a high level is trapped, and you can only gamble again."
Qian Duoduo believes that this is an opportunity to bottom out. "I entered the market at a high level, even though the stock price of the Ningde era rose back to 600 yuan, the income was not very large." It is better to take advantage of the low position to increase the position, and you can also earn more. ”
Although bearish in the short term, in the long run, Lin Xi still has hopes for the stock price of the Ningde era to pick up. "The decline in the stock price of the Ningde era is affected to a certain extent by the big environment, and when the stock market is good, its stock price will naturally pick up."
As for when the stock price of the Ningde era will be able to pull back, or even whether it can climb to the top of the trillion market value again, Lin Xi has no bottom in his heart.
Relying on energy storage to return to the top of the trillion?
Whether it can return to the trillion market value is probably the most concerned issue for countless retail investors at present.
In the stock market, there is a saying called "Moutai Curse". According to an investor, over the years, there have also been listed companies in the A-share market that have surpassed Moutai in their share prices, "but it is often difficult to sustain."
Stocks of Companies such as Hepalink, China Shipbuilding and All Access Education all overtook Moutai to sit on the throne of the highest-priced stock, but in the end they all fell quietly. Gigabit, Zhuoshengwei, Changchun High-tech and Kanghua Bio stocks have also ranked second in A shares, but in the end, they have not escaped the fate of major adjustments.
Leaving aside the "A-share metaphysics", the Ningde era wants to return to the trillion market value, which can be described as many obstacles.
"The moat of the Ningde era was not unbreakable." Some insiders in the future auto daily analysis said that the moats of the Ningde era are divided into "intangible assets" in the field of technology and "cost advantages" and "customer groups" brought about by scale effects, and now these three moats are facing their own crises.
First of all, in the field of technology, more and more power battery manufacturers and car companies have begun to lay out new technologies, with the intention of seizing more market share in the power battery market. Catallic times in the annual report frankly stated that in recent years sodium ion batteries, solid-state batteries and hydrogen fuel cells have been widely valued, many well-known car companies, battery companies, material companies, research institutions around the world have increased the research and development of new technology routes, the company is facing certain new products and new technology development risks.
With the rise of second-line power battery companies, the Ningde era is no longer the first choice for new energy vehicle companies, which continues to compress the "cost advantage" and "customer group" of the Ningde era. "Under the fierce competition, the price is one of the important weights of competition, if the price war is set off, the gross profit margin of the future power battery will be lower and lower." The above-mentioned industry insider analysis.
Of course, the Ningde era will not sit still. Recently, the Ningde era has been involved in the field of power exchange, and at present, Pentol and Aichi have reached cooperation with the Ningde era in the field of power exchange.
In order to ensure technical advantages, CATL has also been developing a new generation of battery technologies such as sodium-ion batteries and solid-state batteries, and it has been deeply bundled with Tesla, Hyundai, Ford, Daimler, Great Wall Motors, Ideal, Weilai and other car companies. The agreement signed between CATL and Tesla shows that from 2022 to 2025, CATL will continue to supply battery products to Tesla, and the purchase contract performance amount is 13.04 billion yuan, accounting for 10% of the total annual sales.
The Ningde era is still making efforts in the field of energy storage, which may become its next growth engine. "The capital dividend of the power battery market has peaked, and whether it can return to the trillion market value depends on the performance of the energy storage business in the Ningde era." After all, the energy storage market corresponds to the trillion-level market size. Economic analyst Song Qinghui thinks.
Ningde era energy storage equipment Source: Visual China
Soochow Securities analysis said that energy storage demand began to erupt, it is expected that the NINGDE era energy storage is expected to reach 50GWh in 2022. Cinda Securities predicts that with the growth of energy storage business, it is expected to improve the overall profitability of the CATL era.
Therefore, securities companies, including Soochow Securities and Cinda Securities, have successively given buy and overweight ratings to CATL.
(This article does not constitute any investment advice, the stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious; at the request of the interviewees, the article is full of money and Lin Xi as pseudonyms.) ）
The author | Su Peng
Edit the | Li Huanhuan