Market capitalization is expected to exceed trillions?
The source of the header image is | BYD official
The author | Su Peng
Edit the | Li Huanhuan
On March 29, BYD released its 2021 annual results report.
According to the financial report, BYD achieved operating income of 216.142 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 38.02% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 3.045 billion yuan, down 28.8% year-on-year. Net cash flow from operating activities was RMB65.467 billion, an increase of 44.22% year-on-year.
Perhaps coincidentally, Great Wall Motors next door released its 2021 annual results report at about the same time. The report shows that Great Wall Motor's revenue in 2021 reached 136.4 billion yuan, an increase of 32.04% year-on-year; net profit was 6.73 billion yuan, an increase of 25.41% year-on-year.
BYD's revenue nearly doubled the Great Wall, but its net profit was less than half of the latter, and the performance of the two was completely different.
Regarding the negative growth of net profit, a relevant person in BYD's public relations department explained to Future Auto Daily: "In 2021, due to the impact of the global epidemic, the electronics business is under short-term pressure; due to the rise in raw materials and commodity prices and other factors, the company's overall costs have risen. During the period, the sales volume of the automobile business increased significantly, and the profitability of the automobile segment increased. ”
From the perspective of sales structure, in the past year, BYD's new energy vehicle sales reached 600,000 units, accounting for 80% of the overall sales of passenger cars, and the annual year-on-year increase of 231.6%. It can be said that BYD has become the fastest transforming traditional car company.
But in front of BYD, there are new issues.
1
It sells well, but it doesn't sell
With a strong product force, dm-i hybrid models have countless fans in 2021.
According to BYD's official data, in 2021, BYD's cumulative sales of passenger cars reached 730,000 units, up 75.4% year-on-year for the whole year. Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles accounted for more than 80% of total sales, about 600,000 units. Cumulative sales of EV (all-electric) models and DM (hybrid) models reached 320,000 units and 270,000 units, respectively, up 144.9% and 467.6% year-on-year, respectively.
Source: Future Automotive Daily
"As BYD's fourth-generation PHEV technology, the DM-i hybrid system has outstanding product strength and significantly lower price than the previous generation of DM models, which has a very high cost performance compared with the same level of fuel and hybrid competitors, and has become the biggest driving force for the growth of BYD's automobile sales." Guohai Securities said in a research report.
Among them, low fuel consumption is a major advantage of dm-i hybrid system. ACCORDING TOD's official data shows that the fuel consumption of Qin PLUS DM-i is 3.8L/100 km at a loss; the Song PLUS DM-i can achieve an ultra-low fuel consumption of 4.4 L per 100 km in the state of power deficit; and the fuel consumption of Tang DM-i is 5.3L/100 km.
BYD Qin's full range of models will sell 187,200 units in 2021
Source: BYD official
However, the soaring orders have also caused BYD to be deeply trapped in the "sweet trouble" of short supply. The head of market sales in a certain region of BYD told Future Auto Daily, "At the most tense time last year, the order for DM-i hybrid models was up to 160,000. ”
This can upset many of DM-i's prospective owners. A Foshan car owner complained that BYD's sales promise was the slowest 3 months to pick up the car, but he waited for 5 months and still did not see a new car; a car owner in Baoding Prefecture also complained: from September 18, 2021 to March 27, 2022, (new car) is still far away.
One car owner waited for half a year and still did not pick up the car
Source: Screenshots of relevant social networking sites
In order to appease the anxious DM-i users, in September 2021, at the launch conference of the e-platform 3.0, Wang Chuanfu slowly walked to the front of the stage, bowed deeply to the audience, and solemnly apologized to consumers, "Sorry, let the users wait for a long time."
BYD's production capacity is close to the ceiling. "In February, the total output was 91,406 vehicles, the total sales volume was 91,078 vehicles, and the number of production and sales was close, and it was basically in a state of full production and full sales." Tianfeng Securities wrote in a research report.
Increasing production capacity is undoubtedly a major problem facing BYD. According to BYD's production capacity plan, it has planned or expanded eight plants since last year. By the end of 2022, BYD's actual available capacity will reach 1.9 million units. By 2022, BYD has set a sales target of 1.2 million units, and if it goes well, its production capacity will be safe.
What really bothers BYD is the crazy price increase of battery raw materials. The prices of the three most critical metals in the raw materials for power batteries – lithium, nickel and cobalt – have skyrocketed since 2021. At present, the market quotation of battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen nearly 10 times year-on-year; the market price of nickel has risen from less than 150,000 yuan / ton at the end of last year to more than 300,000 yuan / ton; the same period of cobalt has also nearly doubled.
As a major producer of new energy vehicles, IT is difficult for BYD to balance the soaring price of raw materials in a short period of time. According to the financial report, the cumulative output of BYD's new energy vehicles in 2021 was 607119 units, an increase of 219.76% year-on-year; the annual gross profit margin fell by 7.81 percentage points year-on-year to 17.39%.
However, the above-mentioned BYD public relations department also explained to future automobile daily: "With the launch of new models and capacity expansion, BYD's future sales will further expand." In the context of rising volume and price, profits are expected to improve. ”
2
With hybrid technology to rush the Million Luxury car market
The so-called volume and price rise, in fact, refers to the high-end brand that BYD is preparing.
BYD's official information shows that in the current brand matrix, the Dynasty series models have basically covered the new energy vehicle market of 100,000-300,000 yuan. According to the data monitored by Wilson, from January to July 2021, the average price of BYD's bicycles has reached 151,800 yuan, which not only exceeds Volkswagen's 147,800 yuan, but also the gap between the two sides is still expanding.
But BYD doesn't seem satisfied.
In the price space of 300,000 yuan and above, BYD is still in a blank stage. The lack of high-end models with large profit margins has always been BYD's heart disease. Especially after Geely, SAIC, Great Wall and Dongfeng have launched high-end new energy brands, BYD's mood of "rushing high" is becoming more and more urgent.
As a result, BYD is determined to "pick up" the brand Momentum of the joint venture with Daimler.
Source: Visual China
On December 24, 2021, Denza received a capital increase of 1 billion yuan from BYD and Daimler, and the latter two also signed an equity transfer agreement, and BYD and Daimler's shareholding in Denza was changed from the previous 50% to 90% of BYD and 10% of Daimler.
On February 14, 2022, Denza Automotive Sales & Service Co., Ltd. was officially established. On the same day, Zhao Changjiang, director of BYD's high-end brand preparation office, said that it will rebuild high-end (brand) services and experiences.
Another high-end brand owned by BYD is also in secret preparation. Li Yunfei, general manager of BYD's brand and public relations business department, revealed that the high-end brand is expected to have a price range of 500,000-1 million yuan, and the brand is "independent brand, independent team, independent sales network". The first model was a hardcore off-road vehicle, which Li Yunfei described as "enough to make people want to leave at first sight."
At that time, BYD's automotive business will be composed of four sectors: Dynasty Network, Ocean Network, Denza and high-end brands. "High-end brands focus on the price range of 500,000-1 million yuan, and the remaining range of 300,000-500,000 yuan is filled by Denza." Some people close to BYD analyzed.
Chen Guangzu, an expert in the automotive industry, is more optimistic, and in the price range of 300,000-500,000, Denza is promising to succeed.
"Denza's first model is MPV, and Lantu and Extreme Kr plan to launch MPV models in the near future, which means that there is a certain demand in the new energy MPV market. Denza has both technical support from BYD and daimler as the brand endorsement, "Under the dual blessing of research and development speed and brand image, Denza is expected to occupy a place in the new energy MPV market."
Another high-end brand that focuses on the price range of 500,000-1 million is not so easy. Although BYD has currently gained a foothold in the 200,000 yuan market with models such as han and tang, it has not completely got rid of the "cheap" brand label.
"The 'cheap label' is a common problem of independent brands. In the process of impacting high-end, independent brands often do not hesitate to spend money and pile up hardware configurations (such as lidar). In Chen Guangzu's view, if BYD's high-end brand wants to gain a foothold, I am afraid that it needs crazy stacking materials to do support.
The above-mentioned people close to BYD analyzed the Future Auto Daily, and BYD's high-end hardcore off-road vehicle is probably a plug-in hybrid version.
Due to the widespread anxiety of endurance, pure electric technology is not suitable for hardcore off-road models. Plug-in hybrid technology provides more battery power assistance than traditional fuel technology, can have more torque, enhance off-road performance, which is quite attractive to off-road enthusiasts, and hybrid is exactly BYD's technical longboard.
3
"Side hustle" earn money to support the family
In addition to the main business of automobile sales, BYD has frequently pushed "side businesses" such as blade batteries and technology platforms to the front of the stage to develop sources of income.
In 2020, BYD has established five companies in one go, including Fordy Battery, Fordi Vision, Fordi Technology, Fordi Power, and Fordi Mold, covering almost all the businesses of new energy vehicle manufacturing and research and development, and accelerating the external sales process of new energy core components.
"We have mature technology, components and platforms, and car companies can buy different combinations from BYD according to different needs, just like picking KFC's A, B and C packages." Li Yunfei once said in an exclusive interview with Future Auto Daily that about 25% of the new energy products in the market use technology provided by BYD.
To promote the parts division to go out and sell products, Wang Chuanfu defined it as BYD's "1.0 version of market-oriented reform".
At present, BYD blade battery, DM-i hybrid system and e-platform 3.0 have reached cooperation with a number of car companies. In April 2021, Wang Chuanfu said that he had begun to supply blade batteries to the whole industry, including Hongqi, Changan Ford, Hyundai Motor and other domestic and foreign companies have reached purchase agreements with Fordy Batteries.
Tesla, Weilai and Xiaomi also frequently appear on the "gossip list" of BYD batteries. On March 25, 36Kr exclusively reported that BYD's power battery business, Fordy Battery, is actively exploring the market in the new car camp, including Weilai and Xiaomi.
The Faw-Hongqi E-QM5 became FAW-Hongqi's first model equipped with a blade battery
In this regard, the relevant person in charge of the marketing department of Fudi Battery said to future automotive daily, "There is no more news disclosure at present. However, He Long, vice president of BYD, has publicly said that "as long as you can think of car brands are talking to us (the supply of blade batteries)." This also makes BYD's power battery supply full of imagination.
In addition to blade batteries, BYD's DM-i hybrid system has also been "put on the shelf". Recently, Skyworth Automobile officially launched the plug-in hybrid model Skyworth HT-i, which is equipped with DM-i hybrid system, with a comprehensive cruising range of 1267km and a pure electric cruising range of 200km.
At the same time, BYD e-platform 3.0 has also launched its arms to cooperate with Many industry partners such as Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, Didi, Hino and so on.
The smooth transition of the 1.0 stage, the "2.0 version of the market-oriented reform" proposed by Wang Chuanfu surfaced. "2.0 is to 'sell' the enterprise and let the capital market recognize it."
Economist Song Qinghui analyzed the Future Automobile Daily that although power batteries, hybrid vehicles and new energy vehicles correspond to a huge market share, IT is difficult for BYD to single-handedly pocket all the market share. "Taking the power battery market as an example, the market contains a market scale of 100 billion, but with strong enemies such as Ningde Era and LG New Energy, BYD cannot swallow the market alone." If the battery sector is split and listed, BYD can directly enjoy the positive expectations brought by the scale of 100 billion yuan in the capital market, and the expectations are naturally reflected in the market value. ”
Some insiders also analyzed the future auto daily that due to the market competition relationship, some car companies may not directly buy BYD's technology and products. After splitting up the various sectors and listing, these sectors have drawn a clear line with BYD, which will help it further open up the market.
According to BYD's plan, BYD Semiconductor will be listed first, and when the time is ripe in the future, Fordy Battery and Fordy Power will also choose the opportunity to go public.
This also made the brokers really excited, Fordy batteries have not yet been listed, Tianfeng Securities gave positive expectations early. Tianfeng Securities said that considering that there are still losses in the small battery and photovoltaic cell business, and the power battery business has just started, it is suitable for valuation with the price-to-sales ratio, referring to the situation of Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, giving it a market-to-sales ratio of 6.4 times, corresponding to a market value of 195.2 billion yuan.
Superimposed Tianfeng Securities compared to the corresponding market value of 1,106.9 billion yuan for BYD's automobile business, the total market value of BYD's automobile and battery businesses exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan. CITIC Securities and Citigroup also gave BYD a market value of 1.3 trillion yuan and 1.5 trillion yuan respectively.
TODAY
Today's topic
BYD sells millions of luxury cars, can consumers pay for it?
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