Penetration rate is increasing In February 2022, global sales of new energy vehicles were about 549,000 units

Since the beginning of this year, the battery plate has been adjusted more, in addition to the previous increase factors, superimposed on the epidemic, liquidity and other factors, the entire battery plate has been adjusted more this year. Today, let's talk about the prosperity of the battery plate in the medium and long term.

1. Sales are growing rapidly and penetration rates are increasing

With the global energy crisis and environmental pollution problems becoming increasingly prominent, the development of energy-saving and environmental protection-related industries has been highly valued, and the development of new energy vehicles has formed a consensus on a global scale. In 2020, global sales of new energy vehicles increased from 140,000 units in 2012 to 3.31 million units, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 40%; the penetration rate increased from 0.2% to 4%.

In 2021, the cumulative sales of new energy models worldwide will increase by 6.5 million units, an increase of 108% year-on-year; China will sell 3.5 million units, an increase of 165% year-on-year; and the penetration rate of the domestic market will increase to 13.4%.

In February 2022, global sales of new energy vehicles were about 549,000 units, an increase of 105% year-on-year, and the installed capacity of power batteries was about 22.77 GWh, an increase of 126% year-on-year.

In the short and medium term, global energy conservation and emission reduction policies will drive the penetration rate of new energy vehicles to increase rapidly. In the long run, intelligent upgrading will bring about a subversive revolution in the automotive industry and bring greater growth space to the new energy automobile industry. In this context, it is expected that global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 15 million in 2025 and 23 million in 2030, and the future market capacity growth is expected to exceed ten times.

2. The policy is strongly promoted, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased rapidly

On July 30, the Central Committee held a meeting of the Politburo, which demanded: "We must tap the potential of the domestic market and support the accelerated development of new energy vehicles." This is a set tone for the development of new energy vehicles from a strategic height.

In November 2020, the "New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" was officially adopted, which pointed out the development direction of the new energy automobile industry in the next 15 years, and supported the new energy automobile industry to accelerate the pace of development from the aspects of technological innovation, system design, and infrastructure. The "Planning" clearly states that by 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will account for about 20%. According to planning estimates, domestic new energy vehicle sales will reach 6.43 million by 2025, with a compound growth rate of about 36%.

On the other hand, the Chinese government has taken a three-pronged approach from car manufacturing, car purchase and car use to provide a favorable policy environment for the popularization of new energy vehicles.

In September 2020, the EU Green Agreement updated the draft "2030 Climate Target Plan", proposing that in 2030, the carbon dioxide emissions per kilometer of passenger cars need to be reduced to 50% in 2021, that is, 47.5g/km, which is 20% lower than the original target of 59.4g/km, and manufacturers that do not meet the emission standards will face huge fines, so the main engine plants are facing the pressure of new energy transformation.

On the other hand, European subsidies have increased to stimulate the consumption of new energy vehicles. Germany, for example, will extend the €1.2 billion subsidy that began in 2016 to 2025, while raising the amount of government subsidies for pure electric vehicles priced at less than 40,000 euros by 50%. The UK receives a subsidy of £3,500 for an electric passenger car and up to £8,000 for an electric van with a carbon footprint of less than 75g/km. Other countries have also introduced direct subsidy policies and charging pile construction policies, which have formed a strong policy stimulus for the consumption of electric vehicles in Europe.

Mainstream OEMs are firmly determined to implement the electric platform strategy, and from 2020, they will enter the platform strategy harvest period, and the supply of high-quality models will increase. As early as the era of fuel vehicles, the platform strategy was a strategic choice for large car companies to enhance product competitiveness and reduce production costs. Nowadays, overseas car companies have introduced positive development of electric platforms, and the platform research and development investment of tens of billions of euros reflects the firm determination of European veteran car companies to develop electric vehicles, laying the foundation for the intensive launch of electric vehicle models.

3. Lithium batteries are widely used, and the demand for energy storage brings new increments

In addition to the power battery field, lithium-ion batteries are also widely used in the field of energy storage. Under the background of the continuous improvement of the current installed scale of energy storage batteries, it can play a role in adding icing on the cake to the performance of relevant leading enterprises in the battery manufacturing industry chain.

Taking the construction of 5G base stations as an example, due to the requirements in terms of volume and heat dissipation, lithium iron phosphate batteries are the best choice for the standby power supply of current 5G base stations. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "2020 Communications Industry Statistical Bulletin", the total number of 4G base stations in mainland China will reach 5.75 million in 2020, and 600,000 new 5G base stations will be built. By 2025, if the 5G base station reaches 5 million, the demand for energy storage will reach 18.5GWh; if the lead-acid battery of some 4G base stations is gradually replaced by lithium battery, it may also bring about an increase in 5GWh.

4, energy storage is accelerating, and the second growth of the battery plate can be expected

In 2025, the new installed capacity of global energy storage is expected to reach 297GWh, promoting the rapid development of the energy storage lithium battery industry.

With the introduction of relevant support policies for the energy storage industry by various governments, the scale of investment in the energy storage market has been increasing. It is estimated that by 2025, the global installed capacity of energy storage will be 297GWh, and the installed capacity of domestic energy storage is expected to reach 98GWh. At present, the mainstream energy storage equipment is mainly lithium batteries, and the main application scenarios in the future are concentrated in the field of new energy vehicles and new energy power generation.

Although energy storage batteries are in the market introduction stage due to cost and technical reasons, in the medium and long term, driven by policies, the energy storage lithium battery industry in mainland China is expected to develop rapidly, and then grow into an important growth level for lithium battery equipment demand.