Wen | Pan Xiaoyu
Edit | Peng Xiaoqiu
In 2022, in cross-border e-commerce, many investors have been unable to find an investment direction.
After all, since the beginning of the year, with the gradual decline in overseas online consumer demand, whether it is cross-border sellers at the front end or service providers transmitted to the back end, almost all of them have been pressed the pause button on the fast lane of high-speed driving. A tacit fact in the industry is that the throes of cross-border e-commerce have arrived.
But even in such a painful period, there is a category that has flipped against the wind, and its sales overseas are still undiminished, that is, portable energy storage products.
As a member of the consumer electronics army, the development of portable energy storage in the past two years has been particularly rapid, which can be seen from the recent IPO of Huabao New Energy. According to its prospectus, the sales of Huabao New Energy portable energy storage products reached 1.835 billion yuan in 2021, compared with 250 million yuan in 2019, the sales increased by nearly 10 times.
The proportion of Huabao New Energy's product revenue is sourced from the prospectus
If the surge in sales reflects market enthusiasm, then consumer recognition has made capital firmer on this track. Therefore, there are not a few star institutions that have poured in all of a while, and Sequoia, Hillhouse, CICC, Dachen and so on have been laid out. This has spawned the rapid development of innovative projects such as EcoFlow and Delan Minghai, of which Zhenghao Technology has become a unicorn in this track and will be listed for IPO.
While new brands are popping up, big companies focused on consumer electronics are also looking at the market. For example, Anker Innovation's latest 757 portable energy storage product has a live capacity of 1229wh and a price of 1399 US dollars; Beth followed, releasing an outdoor digital energy storage power supply priced at 3199 yuan at the "all the way to full power" conference on April 18. In addition, established companies such as Huawei, Aoji, Pinsheng and other companies are also launching their own portable energy storage products, and no one wants to let go of this outlet dividend.
New products from Bess
Whether it is the personal fate of large companies or the continuous influx of hot money by capital, it fully exposes the heat of this track. So, where does the spring breeze of portable energy storage start? How long can this outlet continue to blow? Is the booming market about to become a bubble or is there still room for imagination?
Before the energy storage market
Simply understood, portable energy storage can be seen as a "large charging treasure", the reason why it is called an energy storage product, because its carrying power and output power are greater.
Portable energy storage product diagram, Huabao New Energy Prospectus
Usually, portable energy storage products can be divided into two categories according to the power of a single machine, one is a small, lightweight equipment with a charge of 0.5-1kwh; the other is a device with a charge of more than 1.5kwh, which can mainly replace the previous diesel generator market.
Specifically, the portable energy storage is usually between 200wh and 2000wh, and the output power is between 100w and 2200w, which can power digital devices such as refrigerators and rice cookers and small household appliances. At the same time, because energy storage products usually carry inverters, they can support AC and DC output, while the charging treasure can only support DC output.
In addition, portable energy storage is no longer only a USB interface, but has added a variety of interfaces including AC, DC, Type-C, USB, PD, car cigarette lighter plug, Anderson interface and so on. In terms of size and weight, portable energy storage is also larger and heavier, and the price is between $300 and $3,000.
At present, portable energy storage is mainly used in outdoor activities and disaster emergency scenarios, which can power digital equipment such as smart phones, tablet computers, drones, lights, refrigerators, rice cookers and small household appliances, thereby alleviating power shortages such as power shortages, power outages, and emergency rescue.
Although portable energy storage is now about to be integrated into people's lives, in the past few years, portable energy storage products are only a relatively niche and fledgling market. At that time, in China, a more optimistic track in the consumer electronics map was - shared charging treasure.
With the concept of shared charging treasure coming out in 2016, the hot money of capital quickly burned out the boiling of the shared charging treasure market: monster charging, incoming calls, small electricity and other shared charging treasure companies have successively financed. The rapid growth and death of consumer electronics is vividly reflected in this track, and in 2017, the shared charging treasure industry created a financing myth of 300 million yuan in 10 days and 1.2 billion yuan in 40 days.
2017 Charging Treasure Enterprise Financing Form
But also in this year, the industry quickly ushered in white-hot competition. Under the price war of one pressure and one pressure on profits, a large number of "accompanying" enterprises have been swept out of the track, which means that the outlet for the rapid outbreak of shared charging treasures has also ended quickly. The industry reshuffle has come to an end, and there are only four players left at the table - "three electricity and one beast".
Almost in the same year that the sharing of charging treasures broke out rapidly, in overseas markets, portable energy storage products began to increase in volume. Moreover, from the perspective of sales distribution, the US and Japan markets account for more than 75%. According to data from the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, the global portable energy storage shipments in 2016 were only 52,000 units, and the market size was only 0.6 billion yuan, while the growth rate of the portable energy storage market exceeded 100% in 2017.
However, the real outbreak of this market is still inseparable from the boost of the new crown epidemic.
The dividend era of "large charging treasure"
From the demand side, the amount of portable energy storage first comes from the rising demand for outdoor activities. On the one hand, with the outbreak of the "new crown" epidemic in 2020, indoor venues, cinemas, theme parks and other entertainment facilities have been closed, which has promoted people to go to outdoor activities where a small number of people gather;
On the other hand, the transformation of outdoor activity methods has also driven the demand for off-grid electricity, such as the concept of exquisite camping is gradually becoming popular in the outdoor camping circle, and the electronic equipment and electrical products needed to carry out outdoor activities are becoming more abundant.
At the same time, the demand for outdoor activities in China has also begun to be released rapidly after the epidemic. According to Tianyancha data, from the beginning of 2011 to the end of September 2021, a total of 30,700 campground-related enterprises were registered in China, of which 76% were established after 2020, while the number of newly registered enterprises in the first three quarters of 2021 reached 15,200, showing an explosive growth trend.
Portable energy storage market
Secondly, with the frequent occurrence of natural disasters in recent years, people's awareness of the demand for saving disaster prevention items has begun to increase, which is especially evident in the Japanese market. According to the data of the China Earthquake Network Center, the number of earthquakes above magnitude 5 in Japan from 2019 to 2020 is significantly higher than in previous years and continues to increase, so in 2020, the Japan Disaster Prevention Association has listed portable energy storage products as disaster prevention safety material certification products.
The outbreak of the demand side is inseparable from the maturity of supply. From the perspective of the supply of the energy storage market, it is mainly due to the upgrading and progress of lithium battery technology and the continuous reduction of costs under large-scale commercial application.
In other words, the large-scale production of energy storage batteries is inseparable from the significant increase in energy density brought about by the breakthrough of lithium battery technology. Taking the power battery used by Tesla as an example, the cell energy density used by its first electric vehicle Roadste launched in 2008 was only about 55Wh/kg, and the cell energy density used in the 2021 Model 3 launched in 2020 has exceeded 300Wh/kg.
In addition, with the large-scale commercial application of lithium batteries and the increase in R & D investment, the average unit cost of lithium battery packs has shown a continuous downward trend. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) data, the average unit cost of lithium battery packs has dropped from $684/kWh in 2013 to $132/kWh in 2021, a drop of up to 80.70%. Falling costs have also further pushed portable energy storage products to begin replacing previous supplies of small fuel generators, lead-acid batteries, etc.
Driven by layers of reasons, portable energy storage seems to have brought the next dividend outlet of consumer electronics. According to Orient Securities, the portable energy storage market is expected to ship 24.7 million units in 2025, with an average compound growth rate of 50% from 2021 to 2025, a market space of 56.3 billion yuan, and an average annual compound growth rate of about 50%.
Fast-growing, fast-dying consumer electronics cycle
However, the cycle of consumer electronics has begun again and again, and "fast life and rapid death" has become an indelible brand on this category. Nowadays, even the portable energy storage market is in full swing, and it is difficult to escape this "curse".
A potential problem is that the technical barriers of the industry are not very high.
At present, according to the data of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, in terms of market share, the top five major players on the market are Huabao New Energy, Zhenghao Technology (ecoflow), goal zero, Delan Minghai and Anker Innovation. Among them, Huabao New Energy ranked first with a market share of 16.6%, followed by Zhenghao Technology accounting for 6.3%, and again real zero accounting for 5.6%.
Market share of portable energy storage
In fact, at this stage, the differences between the products of each company are mainly reflected in the power supply capacity, charging time and cost. However, if you split the products, you will find that the difference in the main functions is not large, and more competition points focus on the use experience, such as fast charging time, product appearance weight and possible expansion of the application mode, including rental, B-end market, etc.
After all, the consumer electronics industry has developed so far, and there is already a relatively mature supply system in the upstream fields of batteries, inverters, electronic components and other fields. And the technical barriers of the industry mainly come from the accumulation of technology for traditional products.
Taking Warburg New Energy as an example, the cells, battery packs and inverters in its core components are mainly from external mining. Topband, which provides inverters, and BAK batteries, which provide batteries and battery packs, have been among its top five suppliers in the past three years.
Portable energy storage product structure, source of Orient Securities Orient Securities
The convergence of core performance has also prompted the industry to concentrate on the marketing end of the competition point in the short term. This is especially evident today, when the cost of overseas traffic is rising rapidly.
From 2019 to 2021, Huabao New Energy's expenses for marketing increased from 0.26 billion yuan in 2019 to 267 million yuan in 2021. In terms of delivery methods, online began to make efforts to social platforms such as YouTube, Facebook and Instagram, and offline advertising in crowded places such as Hollywood Hill Road, San Francisco Streets and The Tokyo Subway in Japan.
On the other side of the high marketing expenses, it is the stagnation of R&D investment. In 2019, Huabao's R&D investment was 0.09 billion yuan, and in 2021, the R&D investment was only 0.65 billion yuan.
Huabao New Energy's marketing expenses, source prospectus
The portable energy storage market is surging forward vigorously, and no matter how you look at it, this is a market that is just getting started. However, in fact, many investors have told 36Kr: "The portable energy storage market has come to the Red Sea stage." ”
Behind the voice and fanaticism of consumer electronics once again, how to avoid "nothingness" and get out of differentiation has become the answer that the industry is eagerly looking for. From the current new entries, we can find two major directions, one is to extend the product to another market - home energy storage, but there are not a few old and mature competitors in the home storage market, such as Pineng Technology, ATL, BYD and so on.
Another possible conjecture is intelligence. In today's increasingly intelligent people's lives, whenever hardware and marketing have come to an end, the next possible point of force is concentrated on the software system. In portable energy storage products, this imagination covers the integration of energy storage devices into other intelligent terminal devices, thereby realizing modular self-detection, self-diagnosis, etc., and acting as a movable WiFi or signal transmission device.
However, it is not an easy task to create demand, and whether energy storage products need to become intelligent also needs to be continuously verified by market demand.
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