The "discount promotion" of fuel vehicles is still the main theme, but the production cost of new energy vehicles is rising, which is reflected in the terminal consumer market
Text | Zhao Cheng, Guo Huaiyi
Edit | Wang Jingyi
Less than a week after the last price increase, on March 15, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) once again announced several major model price increases, ranging from 10,000 yuan to 20,000 yuan.
Among them, the Model 3 after-wheel version was adjusted to 279,900 yuan (an increase of 14,248 yuan); the Model 3 high-performance version was adjusted to 367,900 yuan (an increase of 18,000 yuan); the Model Y long-endurance version was adjusted to 357,900 yuan (an increase of 18,000 yuan); and the Model Y high-performance version was adjusted to 41.79 yuan (an increase of 20,000 yuan). On March 10, Model Y long-endurance version, Model Y high performance version, Model 3 high performance version just announced a price increase of 10,000 yuan.
With the sharp rise in raw material prices, the value of new energy vehicles is rising steadily. In addition to Tesla, Xiaopeng Motors (NYSE: XPEV; 09868. HK), Nezha Automobile, BYD (002594. New energy vehicle brands such as SZ and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) have also recently completed price increases.
"As an important raw material for power batteries, the price of lithium carbonate in January 2021 is about 50,000 yuan / ton, and in January this year, it has been almost 400,000 / ton, and the time of year has risen nearly eight times, and it is difficult for new energy vehicle companies to earn money." Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, told The Travel Passenger (ID: carcaijing).
However, fuel vehicles are a different situation, and a recent survey by a traveler (ID: carcaijing) found that "discount promotion" is still the main theme of the automobile market.
"The Audi A4 model in our store has the largest discount margin, and the naked car can be directly discounted by 80,000 yuan." Q7 discount of 40,000 yuan, which is similar to the pre-holiday range. FAW-Volkswagen Audi's sales to Chuyike (ID: carcaijing) said that the recent international situation has not affected the terminal price of its products, but will have a slight impact on the pick-up cycle of some imported models.
▲ Audi Q2L e-tron parked outside the FAW-Volkswagen Audi 4S gate
Photo by Zhao Cheng
Some analysts pointed out that the rise in the price of new energy vehicles is mainly due to the superposition of factors such as subsidies, rising raw material prices, and rising chip prices, which directly leads to a sharp increase in the cost of new energy vehicles, which is difficult to digest in a short period of time by expanding the scale. The trend of rising prices of new energy vehicles will not extend to the fuel vehicle market for a while.
Fuel vehicles are discounted, and new energy vehicles are increasing in price
"The QX60 car has just been on the market for two weeks, so there is no discount in the price level, but when you buy a car, you can enjoy the decoration package and free maintenance services provided by the 4S store." However, the preferential margin of the Q50L and QX50 models is still quite large, with cash drops of 80,000 yuan and 100,000 yuan. A salesman at Dongfeng Infiniti told Travel One Customer (ID: carcaijing). Infiniti is a luxury brand owned by Nissan Motor, and its sales in China rank second in the luxury brand.
Just not far away in the Changan Ford 4S store, a traveler (ID: carcaijing) learned from the sales staff that the Changan Ford Explorer offered 10,000 yuan and the Sharp World discount of 20,000 yuan, "Chip shortage and the recent Russian-Ukrainian conflict, there seems to be no impact on Changan Ford, and the models on sale in the store have existing cars." ”
Compared with Changan Ford, which is well stocked, the sales of GAC Trumpchi are helpless.
"GAC Trumpchi GS4 plus, GM8, Shadow Leopard, GA6 and other popular models are not available, need to be booked in advance, the pick-up cycle is basically about three months, and the preferential margin is small." GAC Trumpchi Sales Xiang Travel Yike (ID: carcaijing) explained: "Our products are now in a state of short supply, and the chip can not keep up for a while, the car is built, but the 'soul' is not installed, which is the main reason for the long pick-up cycle and small preferential margin." ”
A number of car companies said in interviews with Travel One Passenger (ID: carcaijing) that the current chip supply situation is still very tight, even worse than the fourth quarter of 2021, what can be done now is to prioritize the production capacity of products with large market demand.
If fuel vehicles can still maintain a certain degree of terminal discounts, then the new energy vehicle market has "risen" sound.
The direct cause is the decline in subsidies. On December 31, 2021, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice indicating that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will be reduced by 30% compared with 2021, and the new policy will be implemented from January 1, 2022.
On the occasion of retiring the old and welcoming the new, the new car-making force Zero Run Automobile took the lead in announcing the price increase of T03, and the amount of the price increase reached 8,000 yuan, with a range of 13%. Since then, Tesla has relayed, and the price of the domestic Model rear-wheel drive version has risen by 21,000 yuan after subsidies, and the price of the Model 3 rear wheel drive version has risen by 10,000 yuan after subsidies.
On January 1, 2022, Chinese and foreign new energy vehicle brands such as Nezha, SAIC Feifan, JiKr and Polar Star Automobile completed price increases on the same day. Although NIO has not announced a price increase, according to its announcement, it will no longer bear the difference caused by the decline of new energy subsidies for car buyers after January 1, 2022, which means a disguised price increase.
After the collective price increase on New Year's Day, car companies including Xiaopeng Automobile, BYD, SAIC-GM-Wuling, SAIC Volkswagen and FAW-Volkswagen have announced price increases. At this point, the mainstream domestic new energy vehicle companies have basically entered the "general price increase period".
"We have been implementing the new price since January 1 this year, and the price is uniform nationwide. The newly listed 2022 GAC AION S Plus, the price range after subsidies is 153,800 yuan - 179,800 yuan, compared with 2021, the price increased by 7,000 yuan to 14,000 yuan; the price of the 2022 AION Y was raised by 5,000 yuan to 9,000 yuan; the AION LX rose by 4,000 yuan. The sales staff of GAC Aean told the "Finance" reporter. AEON is a sub-brand launched by GAC Group in 2018, focusing on new energy vehicles and selling more than 120,000 vehicles in 2021.
Travel passenger (ID: carcaijing) learned that since February 1, BYD has adjusted the price of some new cars, ranging from 1,000 yuan to 7,000 yuan. Among them, Qin PLUS DM-i, Song PLUS DM-i, Han series, Tang series all increased prices by 3,000 yuan.
In addition, SAIC Roewe also recently issued an announcement that due to the global chip shortage and the decline of the national new energy subsidy policy and other unfavorable factors, due to the upward pressure of costs, it decided to raise the official guidance price of many of its new energy models from March 1, 2022 to cope with market changes.
▲ Source: Public information; Collation: Guo Huaiyi
However, a tripper (ID: carcaijing) visit found that there are also some under-sold new energy models that have not joined the price increase camp.
"The concept is the new energy brand of Guangqi Honda, now there is only a concept VE-1 model, due to the relatively low brand recognition, so the sales are not very good, there are still several existing cars in the store, if you can book, I can apply to the leaders of the store, the highest discount of about 50,000 yuan." A salesman at Guangqi Honda told a passenger (ID: carcaijing).
As the only pure electric vehicle currently on sale by FAW-Volkswagen Audi, the Audi Q2L e-tron also currently has a preferential margin of 40,000 yuan.
Crazy raw materials
The sharp rise in raw materials is the biggest driving force behind the price of new energy vehicles. From the beginning of January 2020 to the middle of January 2022, the prices of battery-grade cobalt and lithium carbonate rose by 119% and 569% respectively. Cobalt and lithium carbonate are important raw materials for batteries
In January 2021, the average spot price of electrolytic cobalt was about 270,000 yuan / ton, and now it has exceeded 540,000 yuan / ton, an increase of 100%. Also in January 2021, the price of lithium carbonate in the range of 50,000 yuan / ton, as of March 1, 2022, the mainstream transaction price of domestic industrial-grade lithium carbonate market is between 480,000-485,000 yuan / ton, the average price is 480,500 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation range of the battery-grade lithium carbonate market is between 495,000-506,000 yuan, and the average price rises to 500,400 yuan / ton. One price a day has almost become the norm.
According to Fitch, one of the three major international rating agencies, Fitch expects that until 2030, the shortage of supply in the global lithium market will show an aggravating trend, and the supply of lithium resources may become the biggest shortcoming of the lithium battery industry chain and even the new energy vehicle industry chain, and its value needs to be revalued. Under this influence, the price of new energy vehicles will continue to rise in a certain period, but it will not depart from the law of supply and demand and the law of value.
Not only the prices of raw materials such as cobalt and lithium continue to rise, but also the prices of manganese, nickel, zinc, copper, iron, chromium, platinum, ruthenium and other metal raw materials involved in the production and manufacture of new energy vehicles are also rising. Among them, the rapid rise in nickel prices has been directly called "demon" nickel by the industry.
▲ Draft: Guo Huaiyi
On March 7, the price of nickel on the London Metal Exchange (LME), the world's largest non-ferrous metal exchange, rose by more than 70%, closing above $50,000 / ton. On March 8, the LME nickel reached the highest mark of $100,000 / ton, and the maximum increase in the day was close to 110%.
Travel passenger (ID: carcaijing) learned that with the high nickel becoming the industry consensus of the ternary lithium battery route, the new energy automobile industry is considered to be the largest source of increase in nickel demand outside stainless steel, and new energy bicycles need an average nickel content of 60 kg of nickel sulfate, that is, there is a demand of about 600,000 tons of nickel for every 10 million electric vehicles. Some research institutions predict that by 2030, the demand for nickel for power batteries will soar from 139,000 tons in 2020 to 1.4 million tons, accounting for 30% of the total demand for nickel.
Low inventories exacerbated the price spike. Since April 2021, LME nickel inventories have continued to decline, from 260,000 tonnes to 77,000 tonnes as at 7 March 2022.
The escalation of the international situation is also considered a catalyst for the soaring nickel price. Huachuang Securities said that in 2021, Russia's nickel production is 115,000 tons, accounting for 11.52% of the total global output of 998,600 tons, and it is the world's third largest nickel metal producer after Indonesia and the Philippines, most of which is supplied to China and Europe.
Xu Aidong, secretary general of the Cobalt Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, told a traveler (ID: carcaijing) that the price increase in nickel is an emergency, mainly driven by funds and emotions, and the follow-up development mainly depends on the results of the consultation between the two sides, and the price increase may continue for a period of time.
The domestic steel spot market is also "rising", and steel is the main raw material for automobile bodies. Travel a passenger (ID: carcaijing) found that in April 2020, the price of steel futures was about 3100 yuan \ ton, and today's steel futures price has risen to 6200 yuan \ ton, in less than a year, the price of steel has doubled.
On March 7, Fushun Special Steel (600399. SH) announced that due to the rapid rise in the prices of nickel, cobalt and ferrovanadium, there is great uncertainty about the impact on production costs, so the contract for nickel, cobalt and vanadium varieties is suspended. After the price adjustment plan is determined, the date of resumption of the order will be notified separately.
"Overseas steel prices are rising rapidly, and as far as I know, there have been nearly 500,000 tons of export orders in the previous week or so. If steel exports rise too fast, then the price of domestic steel may also be affected. A futures analyst, who did not want to be named, told Travel Yike (ID: carcaijing): "Recently, a machinery and equipment manufacturer confessed that the equipment orders received before were indeed facing huge pressure from rising steel costs, and the company has begun to consider raising the price of products." ”
Will the price of new energy vehicles still be firm?
The unexpected soaring prices of upstream raw materials have put great pressure on the cost of the new energy vehicle industry chain.
According to the report of PwC's consulting team Sliot, power batteries account for nearly 45% of the total cost of new energy vehicles. Under such circumstances, the new energy market has not only seen a wave of price increases, but some car companies have even begun to stop accepting new orders.
On February 23, Great Wall Motor's new energy vehicle brand Euler said that it would stop accepting new orders for its popular models black cat and white cat, and that the orders received would continue to be produced.
In this regard, Euler brand CEO Dong Yudong told Chuxing Yike (ID: carcaijing): "We have shared the cost to the extreme, even so, the black cat, white cat two cars for each car sold will lose 10,000 yuan." If you follow the current upward trend in raw material prices, by 2023, Euler black cats and white cats will lose nearly 17,000 yuan per car sold. ”
Under the pressure of the continuous high manufacturing costs, the subsidy decline provides an opportunity for car companies to transfer some of the price pressure to the consumer side.
On December 31, 2021, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice, indicating that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021, and new energy vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be given state subsidies. The new policy came into effect on 1 January 2022.
Subsidy policy decline on the profitability of new energy vehicle companies has a huge impact, Chengdu new energy automobile industry promotion and application promotion association secretary general Fan Yongjun calculated an economic account, to Xiaopeng Automobile as an example, a Mileage of 480 km Xiaopeng P7, if the average monthly sales of 10,000, the annual sales of 120,000 vehicles, if the bicycle subsidy is reduced by 5400 yuan, a year will reduce 648 million subsidy income.
According to the third quarter of 2021 financial report released by Xiaopeng Motors, Xiaopeng Automobile's revenue increased by 187.4% to 5.72 billion yuan in the quarter, and the net loss reached 1.59 billion yuan. At the moment when the profitability of new energy automobile companies, especially the new car-making forces, has not yet turned positive, it is not difficult to understand why car companies have increased prices.
So, will the price increase of new energy vehicles spread to the fuel vehicle market?
In this regard, the relevant person in charge of a joint venture car company told The Travel One Passenger (ID: carcaijing): "Perhaps major companies are studying this issue, but from our point of view, at least there is no plan to increase the guidance price, or as far as possible to digest these cost pressures internally." ”
However, the relevant person in charge of a large state-owned automobile group believes that this question is difficult to answer. "The price increase of raw materials does pose a pressure on the company's operation, and the company on the one hand increases the intensity of collaborative collection and procurement, on the other hand, it promotes cost reduction work in multiple dimensions and digests the rise in raw material prices." The person in charge said in an interview with a passenger (ID: carcaijing).
In addition, he also said that the risk of chip shortage is still unresolved: "At present, the main pressure is still from the tight supply of chips, although the company is trying its best to coordinate chip resources, but production and operation are still affected." ”
In the view of Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Association, the price increase tide will not spread to the fuel vehicle market. "The demand for fuel vehicles is still relatively insufficient, so it is unlikely to increase prices, because after so many years of development, the total sales of fuel vehicles are basically stable or declining." In contrast, the demand for new energy is very strong. He told a passenger (ID: carcaijing): "Whether the price of models will rise after the subsidy decline depends on the market supply and demand relationship - if the new energy vehicle market still continues a strong trend, some car companies will increase prices, but if the demand is relatively weak, it may be traded at a discount." ”
Cui Dongshu believes that the price increase of raw materials for new energy vehicles is a cyclical behavior, and the current general increase in car prices is also a reflection of the rise in raw material prices. "Rising new energy vehicle prices will hurt consumers' enthusiasm for buying in the short term, but China's diversified market for new energy vehicles will offset this unfavorable phenomenon." In addition, since it is a cyclical fluctuation, with the recovery of the supply environment at the industrial end of raw materials, the unfavorable factors of price increases will be alleviated to a certain extent. Therefore, the phenomenon of rising prices in the terminal sales market should be viewed objectively and rationally. ”。