While everyone is worried that the epidemic in Shanghai will lead to a large-scale shutdown of the automotive industry, a more cruel fact is that cars in the end market are almost out of the market.
According to the latest car market data released by the Association of Passenger Vehicles for the second week of April, passenger car retail sales were 187,000 units, down 39% year-on-year, while the average retail sales in the first two weeks were 25,000 units, down 35% year-on-year. According to the April survey, the retail targets of major manufacturers fell sharply year-on-year, and the narrow passenger car retail market was initially estimated to be about 1.100 million units this month, down 31.9% year-on-year. If it were not for the substantial increase in sales of new energy vehicles, the data would have been even more ugly.
Source: Multiplying Association
At the same time, the latest issue of the "China Automobile Dealers Inventory Early Warning Index Survey" released by the China Automobile Dealers Association shows that the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers in March this year was 63.6%, up 8.1 percentage points year-on-year and 7.5 percentage points month-on-month, the inventory warning index is located above the boom-bust line, and the overall market is in a recession range. The last inventory warning index of more than 60% can be traced back to the worst of the epidemic in 2020.
Another data is the results of the March 2022 "Auto Dealer Inventory" survey released by the China Automobile Dealers Association: the comprehensive inventory coefficient of auto dealers in March was 1.75, down 5.4% month-on-month and up 13.6% year-on-year. The month-on-month decline indicates that supply is decreasing and dealers are digesting inventory, while the year-on-year increase indicates that this year's cars are harder to sell than last year.
Source: Multiplying Association
All the data is indicating that the entire automotive industry is on the cold. The overall coldness of the industry has made less than 10% of dealers complete the task indicators for the month in March, and nearly 50% of dealers have only 70% of the task indicators.
In fact, in March and April, many car companies have relaxed or cancelled the assessment of dealer tasks. However, just 2 months ago, these car companies still maintained a very optimistic attitude towards this year's sales target, and the sales growth rate of more than 20% year-on-year was not a minority, and even more so, it increased by 40-50% year-on-year.
It is undeniable that the epidemic is a major factor affecting the automotive market.
According to the survey of the China Automobile Dealers Association, under the impact of this round of the epidemic, nearly 20% of the dealer stores in China have closed their doors, and even if the stores that have opened are affected by the epidemic, there are no customers to the store, which seriously affects the dealers.
Especially dealers in Jilin and Shanghai, in the state of static management of the whole city, it is almost impossible to complete the car transaction. Even if orders or potential customers can be retained online, the final completion of the transaction and delivery is still waiting until after the unsealing.
"Now there is no way, I can only wait for the unsealing and then come back to the store to test drive." Almost all salespeople expressed helplessness.
Even the new car-making forces that rely on online direct sales are facing the same situation. A product specialist for ideal cars said,
"Very few, now the orders are placed by customers who have tested drives before, or who have experienced borrowing a friend's car." A sales specialist at Xiaopeng Motors similarly said that he has been working from home since mid-March: "Now you can only contact existing users to maintain relationships or answer the phone." "As for whether new orders can be obtained, it is all up to luck.
The life of traditional car dealerships is not good. In Changchun, Liang Zi, a salesperson at Wuling Baojun, is under pressure to drop orders sharply. In the whole of March, Liangzi only completed 4 orders, one of which did not mention the car.
However, the epidemic is clearly not the whole reason for the decline of this wheeled car market.
Because after all, the most serious epidemic is only Jilin and Shanghai, and the time mainly occurs at the end of March and the beginning of April, in theory, the car markets in other regions should not be greatly affected, and the inventory of the whole country in March will not be immediately pulled up.
However, the actual situation is that after the time entered March, many dealers said that the passenger flow declined significantly, and the dealers in the first-tier big cities felt more obviously. In Guangzhou, where the epidemic has not yet occurred in March, a Japanese brand dealer revealed that in-store orders fell by more than 30% year-on-year, "customers come to the store a lot less, and the intention is relatively low." The factory's target for March is not much, just 100 units, but we have only completed fifty or sixty orders, and the inventory is very large. ”
A dealer group boss repeatedly lamented on the social platform: "In March, the group's inventory reached a record high of 10,696 vehicles, occupying more than 2 billion yuan of funds, but sales were only 3,361 vehicles, the lowest level in the same period in recent years." ”
"In April, the number of mercedes-benz and BMW stores fell by 40% month-on-month, and Audi fell by 60%." Sun Shaojun, founder of Chefans, revealed to the media. According to the statistics of car fans, in early April, the terminal entry volume of Volkswagen and Nissan fell by 70% compared with the end of March, and honda's entry volume fell by 60%. A person in charge of a 4S store of a second-tier joint venture brand said that "it is almost the same data."
Obviously, this is not just explained by the epidemic, the real situation is that end demand is becoming weak.
First of all, the collective price increase of new energy vehicles in the first two months of this year has caused some car purchase demand to break out in advance. The continuous surge in sales of new energy vehicles has to some extent masked the weakness of the overall automobile market.
According to the data of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, the retail sales of the domestic narrow passenger car market in January 2022 were 2.092 million units, down 4.4% year-on-year and slightly down 0.6% from December last year. Affected by the Spring Festival in February, the domestic narrow passenger car market sold 1.250 million units, down 39.9% month-on-month. In March, retail sales in the domestic narrow passenger car market decreased by 10.5% y/y to 1.59 million units, up 25.6% month-on-month, but still significantly lower than in January.
It can be seen that after entering 2022, the sales volume of the car market has actually been in a state of decline. Previously, car companies' estimates of sales targets for this year were overly optimistic.
At the same time, the turmoil in the international situation, the rise in oil prices, the rise in car prices, and even the layoffs of many large enterprises have led to the loss of demand for cars that are not just needed. The original loan to buy a car, may now give up the purchase of a car, the original purchase of luxury cars, now buy a joint venture car.
"The recent signal has been very bad, and now a lot of people don't buy a car." A marketing leader of his own brand said.
Ordinary people suddenly realized that in such a big environment, it is more important to have money in hand than to have a car in hand. Even the young group, which is regarded by car companies as a new force for car buyers, has begun to become rational.
Not long ago, there was a hot topic on the Internet: "Why are contemporary young people reluctant to change their mobile phones?" In the comments below this topic, many people said that "young people are not only unwilling to change their mobile phones, but also unwilling to buy a car."
In fact, in the past two months, the preferential margins of many traditional brands in the terminal have been loosened a lot. Even mercedes-benz and BMW, which have officially announced price increases, the actual prices of hot-selling models at their terminals have not changed. But it still can't arouse consumers' desire to buy a car.
Under such circumstances, even if Shanghai and Jilin resume work and production, the demand for car purchases will not be reversed immediately, and selling cars is still a problem for dealers.
Write at the end:
The executive meeting of the State Council held on April 13 pointed out that to encourage bulk consumption of automobiles and home appliances, all localities must not add new car purchase restriction measures, and the incremental indicators of purchase restrictions have been implemented. Support the consumption of new energy vehicles.
This is a signal, which obviously means that the authorities have noticed that consumer demand in the auto market is shrinking.
Perhaps, large-scale "stimulus" policies are already on the way. I just don't know how many dealers will be able to survive until that time. (Text/UVIS Auto Old Cannon)
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